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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..S sw winds 5 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Mon..W sw winds 5 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Mon night..Winds N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt near shore...except N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Wed..N nw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except N nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wed night..N ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except N ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt near shore...except ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 352 Am Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southwest flow persists into this morning. Dense marine fog will also be possible through early Sunday morning, mainly over the nearshore alabama waters. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established this afternoon through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS62 KMFL 030617 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 117 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

South Florida remains in the presence of an open warm sector ahead of a cold front, which is presently traversing through the Gulf of Mexico. As this front progresses through the southeastern US today, winds will gradually back in direction, shifting from southerly to southwest this afternoon, and westerly by the evening. This particular front is not accompanied by a vigorous short-wave trough aloft, and thus forcing for ascent becomes significantly diminished near the sub-tropical latitudes of the region. Subtle low-level convergence will still be present, which in the presence of enhanced low-level theta-e values, may present the opportunity for a few showers along the east coast this afternoon/evening. However chances are low enough to omit explicit mention of even slight PoPs in current forecast, and any activity that does develop will be generally short-lived.

By Monday, winds will continue to back in direction, transitioning out of the NW/NNW by the afternoon hours. This will allow for the advection of a cooler and drier airmass to overspread the region. However because the fetch of N/NW flow does not have a long trajectory, the advection will be rather paltry, and thus temperatures and dewpoints will only becomes reduced a few degrees. Rainfall chances remain very low, though cannot rule out a brief short-lived shower.

Warm afternoon maximum temperatures can be expected today, with highs in the mid 80s across most of South Florida, and isolated locations reaching the upper 80s. A slight reduction in temperatures and dewpoints can be expected Sunday, owing to the shift of winds out of the northwest.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Tuesday is expected to bring a modest cooling trend, with temperatures settling near or just above seasonal norms following the frontal passage. This will be further accentuated by a subsequent reinforcing front expected on Wednesday. In the wake of this secondary boundary, expect an influx of significantly drier air (with precipitable water values dropping below 0.4 inches and dewpoints ranging between 30s and 40s) and cooler conditions, originating from winds out of the north-northwest late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Unlike the northwesterly wind shift this past weekend, Wednesdays front will feature a long fetch of deep cold air advection out of the north/northwest. As a result, Thursday morning is likely to record some of the seasons lowest overnight temperatures, with readings in the 40s near the lake and 50s in other areas. The accompanying winds out of the northwest will contribute to a perceptibly cooler environment by South Florida standards. Dry conditions with minimal rainfall chances can be expected through this period, as the atmosphere is bereft of moisture and forcing for ascent.

The high-pressure system to our north is projected to shift eastward between Thursday and Friday. This transition will result in a veering of winds, with an onshore component expected to moderate the overnight low temperatures post-Thursday morning.
Despite this, the cool air mass, marked by 850 mb temperatures below 10 degrees C (which is less than the 10th percentile for early December), will maintain daytime highs slightly below normal from Wednesday through Friday. Predicted afternoon maximum temperatures are anticipated to be in the low to mid-70s. Towards the end of next week and into the weekend, temperatures will increase again as a warmer airmass originating from tropical latitudes filters in over the region. Again, dry conditions will prevail through the entirety of this period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Patchy fog may lower VIS this morning in some of the western metro locations and at APF, but should dissipate by 12-13Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light SW winds early in the day will give way to SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast metro in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Benign conditions are expected over the next few days. Calm seas and gentle to moderate southerly winds will round out the weekend, with winds gradually shifting out of the northwest by Monday.
Rain chances return late Sunday to early Monday over the Atlantic waters, though most activity will be short-lived in nature. Winds will increase and turn northerly behind a series of quick moving cold fronts next week, though dry conditions will again prevail through much of the upcoming week.

BEACHES
Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today, though the threat should become low by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 85 72 85 68 / 10 10 10 0 West Kendall 86 68 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 86 71 86 67 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 70 85 68 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 71 84 68 / 10 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 71 84 67 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 86 70 86 66 / 10 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 85 69 84 64 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 86 70 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 Naples 82 70 81 62 / 0 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Marco
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Sun -- 03:22 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:34 PM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Coon Key
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Sun -- 03:43 AM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:34 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:14 PM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:29 PM EST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coon Key, Florida, Tide feet

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