Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:57PM Friday August 23, 2019 4:41 PM EDT (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 350 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of light showers after midnight.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of light showers through the night.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of light showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 338 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis..A light and predominately onshore wind flow will continue today and tonight, becoming more variable and at times light offshore over the weekend before becoming mostly light to moderate onshore again by early next week. Seas will range between one and two feet outside of scattered late night and early morning shower and Thunderstorm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 231740
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
140 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
the region. These showers will continue throughout the afternoon.

There could be periods of MVFR in and around any shower or
thunderstorm. East southeasterly flow will continue this afternoon
around 10 knots. At kapf, winds will shift around to the west
northwest this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue through
the overnight hours especially across the east coast terminals.

Prev discussion issued 1018 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
update...

updated the forecast based on the latest radar trends. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are continuing over the atlantic waters.

More showers and thunderstorms will develop across south florida
as the east and west coast sea breezes develop and move inland.

There is plenty of moisture to work with as pwats from the 12z mfl
sounding are at 2.27 inches. Localized flooding will be a concern
as the showers and thunderstorms will have heavy downpours
associated with them. Did not make any changes to the weekend
forecast as the models are still in disagreement in the handling
of this tropical disturbance. The ECMWF continues to show a
slightly stronger system and then move it up the eastern seaboard.

The GFS is weaker and it splits the area of low pressure into two
different segments, one of which is the lower level circulation
and it moves it across the south florida peninsula. The other one
is the mid level circulation and it moves that up the eastern
seaboard. The current forecast suggests a blend between the two
solutions as there will be shower and thunderstorm development
across the region. The main threats will continue to be the heavy
rainfall possibility with these storms.

Prev discussion... Issued 740 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
aviation...

there will be increased chances of showers across the south
florida terminals this morning as well as a few thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some of the showers and thunderstorms today could bring
brief periods of ifr. East to southeasterly flow will continue
throughout the day near 10 knots. At kapf, the wind flow will
shift around to the west northwest this afternoon as a gulf coast
sea breeze develops.

Prev discussion... Issued 409 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

today and this weekend: the main feature impacting our weather
pattern today and into the weekend is an area of low pressure
that is currently located NW of andros island in the bahamas. The
disturbance will move northwestward towards the florida coast
today. There is plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength
of this system. The national hurricane center is giving this
system a 30% chance of development the next 48 hours and 60% the
next five days. Regardless if this disturbance develops, the
primary hazard for south florida the next few days will be periods
of heavy tropical rainfall with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Heavy rainfall may lead to some
flooding in urban areas across the region.

Tropical moisture has already moved into the region. The latest
mfl sounding had a precipitable water value of 2.12 inches and
nassau had 2.27 inches. This area of tropical moisture will be
across the area at least through this weekend.

Global models are all over the place and not in good agreement
with how they handle this disturbance. Some of the models like the
ukmet and ECMWF bring this system close to the florida coast
keeping it a little stronger and then move it up the eastern
seaboard up offshore the carolinas. The interesting model is the
gfs. The GFS is a little weaker splits this low into two different
segments with the low level circulation continuing to move west
across the peninsula and the mid level portion moving up the
coast. Now which of these solutions turn out to be correct will
effect the rest of the weekend forecast.

So for today across south florida the increased tropical moisture
with the easterly flow will lead to tropical rains with high
rainfall rates. Increased rain chances will still be diurnally
driven, with periods or rounds of showers and storms. Heavy
rainfall may lead to minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas. Now the threat is not just for the east coast. Hi-res
models have the gulf coast sea breeze developing this afternoon.

With easterly flow and storms moving across the peninsula there
is potential for a convergence boundary to develop over the west
coast. This may lead to slow storm motion and heavy rainfall for
the gulf coast as well. Therefore, the weather prediction center
has placed all of south florida under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for today.

The rest of the weekend is really dependent on the strength and
track of this low pressure system. If the ECMWF solution prevails
then we will stay on the western side of the system as it moves up
the coast with winds becoming more southerly southwesterly and
more of a dry slot with convection focused across northern
portions of the region. If the GFS solution prevails with the low
level center moving across the peninsula then the easterly wind
component will remain into the weekend. Ultimately the excessive
rainfall risk may be extended into the weekend depending on which
solution comes to fruition and how much rainfall is received on
Friday.

Early next week: plenty of lingering tropical moisture will still
be present once this disturbance lifts out of south florida.

Winds will become southerly to southwesterly to help focus the
majority of convection over the interior lake okeechobee region as
well as palm beach county.

Mid-late next week: a return to a typical summertime pattern by
mid next week. Atlantic high pressure will build across the
peninsula. Winds will be fairly light allowing for both the
atlantic and gulf seabreeze to develop. Most of the convection
should be driven by a combination of sea breeze and thunderstorm
boundary interactions and diurnal heating. Storm coverage is
expected to be greatest over the lake okeechobee interior region
as well as the gulf coast during this period.

Marine...

a tropical disturbance approaching the region will bring easterly
winds across the region. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet with
occasionally higher seas in the atlantic. Seas in the gulf will be
generally 2 feet or less. Increased moisture across the area will
lead to increased periods of showers and thunderstorms across all
south florida waters.Gusty and erratic winds with locally higher seas
are possible in and around any convection.

Aviation...

a tropical disturbance with a weak center of rotation located over
the bahamas, generally southeast of mia this morning, will bring
increased chances for +ra and possibly a few +ts this afternoon to
the entire area. Some of the convection may also bring some brief
ifr conditions across the area. As convection weakens tonight,
conditions should improve. Currently, the impact south florida
looks to be mainly increased chances of heavy rain over the next
few days.

Beach forecast...

there is a moderate risk of rip currents at all east coast beaches
today. An elevated risk of rip currents may linger for the next
day or so.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 90 77 91 50 60 30 60
fort lauderdale 78 90 79 91 50 60 40 60
miami 77 90 78 91 50 60 40 50
naples 76 90 78 89 30 50 40 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi59 min 83°F 88°F1013.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi101 min 89°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi107 min N 7 G 11 88°F 1014.2 hPa
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi101 min 87°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi101 min 88°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi101 min 86°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi59 min NNE 7 G 9.9 85°F 88°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi2.8 hrsN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F77°F66%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4NE6E6NE5E4E5CalmN3--CalmN3N4N4N5N4N6N5NE7NE84NE9N7Calm3
G19
1 day agoW7SW8S8NE5N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmNE4CalmN3NE5NE75N7NE10--E6
2 days agoNW33SW6N5E6NE3CalmCalmE4NE6E5E3E5E4E3E6E8E6----E7W7W9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.31.61.82.12.22.221.81.51.20.90.60.60.711.31.51.71.71.71.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
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Fri -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.62.12.73.13.43.33.12.62.11.61.20.90.911.31.82.22.62.82.82.52.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.