Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:58 AM EDT (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 knots nearshore and south southeast 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..NEarshore, south winds 5 knots in the morning. Winds west southwest in the afternoon. Offshore, south winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 knots nearshore and west 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers
Thursday night and Friday...northeast winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the evening, then chance of light showers.
Friday night..East southeast winds 10 knots nearshore and east southeast around 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and south southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 452 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis..A stalled frontal boundary over the marine area will begin to shift northward today. A light to moderate northerly flow north of the front will shift to southeast to south today ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front will move across the marine area early Wednesday leading to a moderate offshore flow Wednesday and Wednesday night. Onshore flow returns Friday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 150739
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
339 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Short term
Today through Wednesday night...

south florida remains under the influence of surface to mid level
high pressure. To the north of the area sits a frontal boundary that
has stalled, keeping most of the associated cloud cover over
northern florida and portions of the southeastern united states
north of interstate 10. The air mass will continue to be drier which
should help suppress widespread cloud coverage this afternoon and
evening. The efficient diurnal heating of the drier air mass will
allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s along the atlantic coast
while the easterly flow across the peninsula will allow southwest
florida to reach into the lower 90s today. This will increase the
potential for the gulf sea breeze to develop and push inland a bit
this afternoon. The presence of the sea breeze circulation will
allow for a non-zero probability of showers today, but the drier air
should keep any convection that does develop from being more than
isolated showers. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm if a
localized favorable environment were to develop but the chances are
well below any mention at this point in time.

The pattern begins to shift a bit on Wednesday as low pressure over
the great lakes will push a trailing cold front into the
southeastern united states which should begin to propel the moisture
associated with the remnant boundary to our north forward. As the
day evolves on Wednesday, moisture will return and so will the
chances of showers. Thunderstorm chances are again non-zero, but
still not high enough to mention due to the lack of better upper
level support for more robust convection than showers. If the
shortwave trough were to dig a bit more south, then thunderstorms
might eventually be added to the forecast. Temperatures will once
again reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday afternoon
across a good portion of south florida. The wind shift ahead of the
front will eventually lead to a southwesterly flow by the afternoon
which could allow some convective focus to develop along the east
coast metro areas. This will have to be monitored in case a heavy
rain threat begins to emerge, particularly if thunderstorm chances
increase. With the increasing surface moisture and drier air aloft,
there could be a window Wednesday night into Thursday morning for
some fog to develop over the interior portions of south florida.

Long term
Thursday through Tuesday...

the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin its march
southward across the florida peninsula Thursday as ridging aloft
elongates east to west and tightens. Ahead of the approaching
boundary, winds will begin to veer out of the south then southwest
as surface high pressure retreats farther into the atlantic. The
more southerly component in the prevailing flow will allow
tropical moisture to trickle back in across the region, keeping a
scattered pops in the forecast through early Saturday morning. One
thing to note is that the light southwesterly flow across the
region could allow for some patchy fog to develop, especially
across the interior areas. SREF is hinting at patchy fog early
Thursday morning. Due to growing confidence and trends, added
patchy fog across portions of south florida for Thursday morning.

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the frontal boundary stalling along
the southern tip of south florida Friday into Saturday before
pushing northward as a warm front. With increasing moisture and
instability, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible this weekend. Forecast soundings have increasing 0-3 km
srh values between 150 to 175 m2 s2 along with increasing dcape
values between 800 to 1000 j kg. With that, stronger storms cannot
be completely ruled out, especially ones with higher-end wind
gusts.

Also during this time, both models are showing a possible low
developing in the southwestern gulf of mexico, moving north
northeast towards the central gulf coast states. Currently, the
gfs takes this low towards the florida peninsula whereas the
ecmwf delivers the low across the central gulf states. Regardless,
this in combination with the aforementioned warm front could make
for a wet weekend. By early next week, a brief drying trend looks
to be in store, though this ultimately depends on the nature of
the developing low. Handled forecast with 30 to 40 percent pops
for now.

Marine
Light winds will allow seas to remain below 5 feet through a good
portion of the week. An approaching front mid to late week will
bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms which could
produce gusty winds and locally higher seas.

Aviation
Generally dry weather expected through the period though some
showers could develop along the gulf sea breeze. Confidence is too
low to include any impacts at apf with this issuance beyond the
potential for some mist ground fog overnight into sunrise Tuesday
morning. Other than the aforementioned gulf sea breeze around apf,
easterly flow will prevail.

Beach forecast
The high risk of rip currents continues for the palm beaches today
due to lingering northeast swells and a persistent east wind with
a moderate risk of rip currents for the remainder of atlantic
beaches. Northeast swells in the atlantic waters are still leading
to above predicted high tides today and are expected to slowly
taper off tonight. Flooding is still possible along coastal
roadways and inlets along the east coast metro areas and thus, the
coastal flood advisory has been extended through tonight into
early Wednesday morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 86 73 89 74 10 10 20 10
fort lauderdale 86 75 88 76 10 10 20 10
miami 87 74 89 75 10 10 20 10
naples 89 73 89 75 10 10 20 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for flz168-172-
173.

High rip current risk through this evening for flz168.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Marine... 02 rag
aviation... 02 rag
beach forecast... 03 fell
short term... 02 rag
long term... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi73 min NNE 2.9 72°F 1018 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi58 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 83°F1017 hPa (+0.0)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi58 min 82°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi124 min E 5.1 G 7 77°F 1017.7 hPa
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi58 min 84°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi58 min 82°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi58 min 83°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi58 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 82°F1016.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi65 minNE 510.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E8E7SE8SE74CalmSW8W7W4W5NW4W3CalmCalmSE9SE8SE5E4E5E6E5E4NE5
1 day agoNE6NE8E9E8E11E9E6E7W8SW8SW5S5CalmS4SW3N3E5SE4E4E4E5NE4NE6NE6
2 days agoNE7NE7NE12E11E10NE8NE11NE9N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.42.52.321.510.50.20.20.511.522.32.32.21.91.61.3111.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.33.73.73.32.61.710.40.20.30.91.72.63.33.73.63.22.41.71.10.911.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.