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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 400 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday evening...
Today..S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..NEar shore, sw winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt becoming N nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt after midnight, seas 2 ft or less. Well offshore, W nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming N nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight, seas 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft after midnight. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except N ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and 6 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft well offshore. Period 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt nearshore and N ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Period 8 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 15 to 20 kt well offshore. Gusts up to 35 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers through the night.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.

GMZ600 340 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Moderate onshore flow will shift to northwesterly today as a strong cold front crosses area waters. Strong northwesterly to northerly flow is expected behind the front Sunday through Sunday night with gusts to gale force over the gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KMFL 101156 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Conditions start becoming unsettled today as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. Ahead of the front, SSE winds will become breezy and gusty, with cloud cover gradually increasing across much of the area into the afternoon. PWATs are forecast to gradually increase up to the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as the front nears our area, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land.
Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60 percent chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday evening and through the night. Can’t rule out a few stronger cells with gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area. It will also help keep daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast). Winds behind the front will remain breezy, with northerly to northeasterly winds 15-20 kts.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys for much of the extended period, supporting enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours across much of South FL. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50, 60, or even 70 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Generally VFR conditions and gusty S-SE flow through early afternoon before a front begins to move through the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase after 20Z with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by convection.
Short-fused AMDs for sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys may be needed. The front should be past the terminals around 06Z-09Z, with dry conditions and N-NW flow following behind it.

MARINE
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds at 15-20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight as the front pushes through.

Winds and seas will increase behind the front starting tonight and persisting through the end of the week, resulting in hazardous marine conditions across all local waters. Winds are forecast to increase up to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts by the middle of the week, while seas could build up to 6-11 feet across the Atlantic waters. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Gulf Waters starting 10PM tonight through at least Monday evening. For the local Atlantic waters, a Small Craft Advisory will also go into effect at 4AM tomorrow morning lasting through at least Tuesday evening.

BEACHES
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches will remain elevated into next week thanks to onshore flow. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through this evening. Behind the cold front, the rip current threat will also increase along the Gulf beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 66 75 65 / 20 40 10 10 West Kendall 84 63 75 61 / 20 40 10 10 Opa-Locka 84 65 75 64 / 20 40 10 10 Homestead 83 65 76 64 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 65 74 66 / 20 50 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 64 74 65 / 20 40 10 10 Pembroke Pines 84 64 74 63 / 20 40 10 10 West Palm Beach 83 62 72 64 / 20 40 10 10 Boca Raton 83 64 74 65 / 20 50 10 10 Naples 82 59 71 54 / 20 30 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Naples
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Sun -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:10 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Marco
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Sun -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:08 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:15 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:32 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

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