Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM   Moonset 12:37 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - S winds 15 to 20 kt. NEar shore, seas 2 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Well offshore, seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tonight - S se winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - . Except S 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S se 2 ft at 3 seconds and sw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except sw 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 7 seconds and S sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except W sw 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers. Thu night - W nw winds 5 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Fri and Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 1007 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southwesterly winds - .occasionally stronger well offshore - .become west to northwest tonight. A light northerly flow develops Wednesday night then becomes southerly on Thursday. A moderate southerly flow is expected on Friday, then a light to moderate southwesterly flow follows for Saturday.

FXUS62 KMFL 141725 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 125 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level flow will become a bit more westerly tomorrow as the northern stream shortwave increases in latitude just a bit. This will open up a pathway for warm mid-level air from the Mexican Plateau to advect across the Gulf over south Florida. Southerly low-level flow today will advect abnormally warm maritime air across south Florida, but more directly tomorrow as winds take on a more southwesterly component as the surface low shifts east to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The anomalous SSTs and near surface air will surge an atypically warm and moist airmass across south Florida. This will most likely result in heat advisory conditions for a least a portion of south Florida tomorrow as heat indices exceed 105-108 degrees. While dewpoints will be higher along the west coast, temperatures will be higher along the east - having the same overall effect on the heat indices and thus the widespread threat.

As far as convection is concerned, this afternoon outflow from storms to our north will interact with the seabreezes and initiate convection across the Lake Region and Palm Beach county. Given the still somewhat cool mid-level temperatures, presence of 30ish knots of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates, storms that develop have the potential to produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds. The front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will draw closer to north-central Florida tomorrow and a little more convection may drift into the Lake Region, but in general the isolated to scattered threat for storms will continue tomorrow. The weakening dynamics and warming mid-level temps may yield a slightly lower severe threat tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR will generally prevail through the TAF. The greatest risk for TSRA will be at PBI this afternoon into the early evening.
Southerly winds gusting between 20-25kts will continue through the afternoon and then subside to around 10 knots overnight. Winds will turn a bit more southwesterly tomorrow, but could still gust around 20 knots through the day.

MARINE
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Southerly flow around Advisory levels will continue through today, turning southwest and remaining elevated through tomorrow as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end of the week until the low completely passes.

BEACHES
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The high rip current risk today may have to extend into tomorrow as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 95 80 95 / 0 20 20 40 West Kendall 78 97 76 96 / 10 10 20 30 Opa-Locka 80 97 78 96 / 0 20 20 40 Homestead 79 95 78 95 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 95 79 94 / 10 30 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 96 79 95 / 10 30 20 50 Pembroke Pines 80 99 79 97 / 10 20 20 40 West Palm Beach 77 96 76 95 / 10 40 30 50 Boca Raton 79 98 78 96 / 10 30 30 50 Naples 79 91 78 90 / 10 30 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Naples
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Marco
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:53 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:43 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Miami, FL,