Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lely, FL
May 15, 2024 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM Moonset 1:14 AM |
GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Thu night - W nw winds 5 kt becoming S sw after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night - W nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Mon - W nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N ne in the morning. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
GMZ600 335 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase along with building seas late in the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area Thursday night through Saturday morning. Offshore flow return late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.
Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 152350 AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 750 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Most of South Florida remains in a lull as far as convection is concerned as the air mass has been stabilized by showers and thunderstorms that formed this afternoon. This lull in activity should remain in place across most areas through the rest of the evening hours. During the overnight hours, some of the CAMs are suggesting the potential of shower and thunderstorm activity redeveloping towards the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out especially across the Lake Okeechobee region closer to the front during this time frame.
The strongest storms could contain heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 along the east and west coast.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A frontal boundary attendant to a mid-level trough will slowly advect southward and approach south-central Florida on Thursday, creating a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most of the region and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA This steadily westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels and breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an east coast sea breeze. With that in mind, any convection is expected to be confined to the east coast metro areas or the nearshore Atlantic waters even if a sea breeze boundary forms. While the overall pattern will involve weak forcing (broad longwave mid-to- upper level trough and weak frontal boundary), there will be sufficient moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft (-8 to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support a few thunderstorms. These storms could become strong to severe as well, especially near the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon and evening where forcing will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest, creating the largest instability in the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the lake region into a marginal risk because of this. The trough will be exiting the area during the latter half of the Thursday, but some convective showers and storms will remain possible through most of the day before the axis shifts offshore and ridging begins to rebuild.
With elevated moisture and an ongoing hot pattern, dew points will be on the higher side in the mid to upper 70s and the westerly flow will place the west coast in the low 90s with the east coast in the mid to upper 90s. This combination of hot temps and higher dew points will spark peak heat indices into the triple digits and could rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short duration for the east coast metro. This could necessitate a Heat Advisory at some point, but at this time the highest indices are not expected to be of long enough duration (2 or more hours) to issue one and cloud cover from convection should help limit this as well but this will be monitored. West coast areas are not expected to see heat indices quite as high as the east coast but could still hit 102-106 degrees. Overall, whether an advisory is issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or to take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.
By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra support to push the boundary through the area to close out the extended forecast period early next week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail during the evening hours.
Southwesterly winds will continue to diminish across the region as the evening progresses. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop towards the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
These storms could bring periods of MVFR or IFR in and around storms. Winds will increase out of the west southwest and range between 10 and 15 kts on Thursday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Winds have fallen below advisory levels as of late this morning with seas expected at 2-3 feet across all local waters through tomorrow.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. Mainly benign conditions are then expected for the end of the week.
BEACHES
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 30 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 96 74 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 96 76 95 / 30 60 10 20 Homestead 78 94 76 93 / 40 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 91 / 30 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 76 92 / 20 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 77 96 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 93 73 93 / 30 70 10 20 Boca Raton 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 10 20 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 0 10
BEACHES
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 30 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 96 74 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 96 76 95 / 30 60 10 20 Homestead 78 94 76 93 / 40 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 91 / 30 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 76 92 / 20 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 77 96 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 93 73 93 / 30 70 10 20 Boca Raton 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 10 20 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 0 10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 96 78 92 / 40 60 10 20 West Kendall 78 96 75 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 79 96 77 94 / 40 70 10 20 Homestead 78 95 76 93 / 50 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 77 90 / 40 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 94 77 92 / 30 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 78 95 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 76 93 74 92 / 30 80 10 20 Boca Raton 78 94 75 93 / 30 80 10 20 Naples 79 89 78 92 / 30 50 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 750 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Most of South Florida remains in a lull as far as convection is concerned as the air mass has been stabilized by showers and thunderstorms that formed this afternoon. This lull in activity should remain in place across most areas through the rest of the evening hours. During the overnight hours, some of the CAMs are suggesting the potential of shower and thunderstorm activity redeveloping towards the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out especially across the Lake Okeechobee region closer to the front during this time frame.
The strongest storms could contain heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 along the east and west coast.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A frontal boundary attendant to a mid-level trough will slowly advect southward and approach south-central Florida on Thursday, creating a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most of the region and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA This steadily westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels and breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an east coast sea breeze. With that in mind, any convection is expected to be confined to the east coast metro areas or the nearshore Atlantic waters even if a sea breeze boundary forms. While the overall pattern will involve weak forcing (broad longwave mid-to- upper level trough and weak frontal boundary), there will be sufficient moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft (-8 to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support a few thunderstorms. These storms could become strong to severe as well, especially near the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon and evening where forcing will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest, creating the largest instability in the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the lake region into a marginal risk because of this. The trough will be exiting the area during the latter half of the Thursday, but some convective showers and storms will remain possible through most of the day before the axis shifts offshore and ridging begins to rebuild.
With elevated moisture and an ongoing hot pattern, dew points will be on the higher side in the mid to upper 70s and the westerly flow will place the west coast in the low 90s with the east coast in the mid to upper 90s. This combination of hot temps and higher dew points will spark peak heat indices into the triple digits and could rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short duration for the east coast metro. This could necessitate a Heat Advisory at some point, but at this time the highest indices are not expected to be of long enough duration (2 or more hours) to issue one and cloud cover from convection should help limit this as well but this will be monitored. West coast areas are not expected to see heat indices quite as high as the east coast but could still hit 102-106 degrees. Overall, whether an advisory is issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or to take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.
By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra support to push the boundary through the area to close out the extended forecast period early next week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail during the evening hours.
Southwesterly winds will continue to diminish across the region as the evening progresses. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop towards the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
These storms could bring periods of MVFR or IFR in and around storms. Winds will increase out of the west southwest and range between 10 and 15 kts on Thursday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Winds have fallen below advisory levels as of late this morning with seas expected at 2-3 feet across all local waters through tomorrow.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. Mainly benign conditions are then expected for the end of the week.
BEACHES
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 30 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 96 74 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 96 76 95 / 30 60 10 20 Homestead 78 94 76 93 / 40 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 91 / 30 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 76 92 / 20 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 77 96 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 93 73 93 / 30 70 10 20 Boca Raton 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 10 20 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 0 10
BEACHES
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 30 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 96 74 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 96 76 95 / 30 60 10 20 Homestead 78 94 76 93 / 40 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 91 / 30 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 76 92 / 20 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 77 96 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 93 73 93 / 30 70 10 20 Boca Raton 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 10 20 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 0 10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 96 78 92 / 40 60 10 20 West Kendall 78 96 75 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 79 96 77 94 / 40 70 10 20 Homestead 78 95 76 93 / 50 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 77 90 / 40 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 94 77 92 / 30 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 78 95 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 76 93 74 92 / 30 80 10 20 Boca Raton 78 94 75 93 / 30 80 10 20 Naples 79 89 78 92 / 30 50 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL | 6 mi | 90 min | W 5.1 | 85°F | 29.89 | 77°F | ||
| FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL | 39 mi | 42 min | W 13G | 84°F | 86°F | 29.91 | ||
| WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL | 39 mi | 180 min | 89°F | |||||
| CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL | 42 mi | 180 min | 89°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPF NAPLES MUNI,FL | 4 sm | 67 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 79°F | 84% | 29.86 | |
| KMKY MARCO ISLAND EXECUTIVE,FL | 9 sm | 64 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 75°F | 74% | 29.88 |
Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:44 AM EDT 2.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT 1.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT 2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 08:44 AM EDT 2.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT 1.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT 2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Naples (outer coast), Florida (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Marco
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT 1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT 1.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT 1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT 1.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Miami, FL,
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