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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 303 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect until 10 am cst this morning...
Today..North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Very rough on the bay becoming rough this afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots decreasing to around 5 knots after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 303 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
strong northerly winds and building high seas in wake of the passage of a cold front will result in gale conditions continuing through this morning. Small craft advisory conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day. Winds diminish and seas slowly subside by late this evening as the center of the high pressure area quickly shifts over the northwest gulf. Onshore flow redevelops Monday as the high pressure ridge translates east along with low pressure developing across the southern plains.

FXUS64 KBRO 101105 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 505 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The latest radar and satellite imagery depict overcast skies across all of Deep South Texas, with some lingering post-frontal convection over the Gulf waters. Strong cold air advection in wake of the frontal passage will result in Sunday morning low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 50s across the Rio Grande Valley. North winds around 10 to 15 mph, with occasional gusts up to 25 mph, will be possible through this morning, before decreasing in speed as the pressure gradient weakens through the day.

High temperatures this afternoon should warm into the low to mid 60s, about 10 degrees cooler than seasonal normals for mid December.
In comparison, Saturday afternoon's high temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals for mid December! While many of us will be enjoying the cooler day, we'll also have to contend with an elevated fire weather threat due to the combination of low relative humidity values and elevated winds for a brief from late morning through mid afternoon.

As high pressure settles over East Texas tonight, the combination of light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling processes across Deep South Texas. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s across the Northern Ranchlands to around 40 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley.
Probabilistic guidance continues to highlight a low chance (10% or less) of temperatures falling to 32 degrees or less tonight, mainly across portions of the Northern Ranchlands.

A pleasant day is in store on Monday with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Cloud cover will return once again on Monday as southwesterly flow aloft transports Pacific moisture across the region.

Along the Lower Texas beaches, a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory will be in effect through this evening. Conditions should improve by Monday as wave heights decrease.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A coastal trough with some mid-level support and ample moisture will set up along the lower Texas coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. This feature is expected to be the main driving force for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms starting late Tuesday and lasting through Friday night. The best rain chances will be Thursday into Friday as a 500 mb closed low moves over South Texas.
Rain chances quickly diminish on Saturday with the passage of the mid-level trough axis and dry northwest flow aloft prevails. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 50s, except for the low to mid 60s along the beaches. Near normal highs are expected Tuesday and Wednesday due to increase cloud cover and rain chances. Overnight lows will gradually warm into the low 60s by Wednesday morning.
Another cold front arrives on Thursday resulting in falling temperatures late week and into the weekend.

Finally, surface high pressure across along the northern Gulf Coast will support a long fetch of easterly winds which will generate long period swell across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This may lead to minor coastal flooding and elevated rip currents along the Lower Texas Coast, especially Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites.
Breezy northerly winds will persist through at least early this afternoon, with sustained winds around 15 to 25 knots and occasional gusts up to 30 knots. Wind speeds should begin to fall late this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds should fall below 10 knots overnight as high pressure settles over East Texas and the northern Gulf of Mexico.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Today through Monday...Strong north winds prevail over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre in wake of the passage of a cold front Saturday night. Gale conditions will prevail through at least 8-10 AM Sunday morning. Hazardous conditions (Small Craft Advisory)
will continue through the rest of the day due to the combination of high seas and breezy north winds. Conditions should begin to improve tonight as high pressure settles near the coast, with favorable marine conditions expected by Monday.

Monday Night through Saturday...Generally favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast Monday night and Tuesday.
Adverse conditions are then expected to become adverse Tuesday night into Wednesday as a coastal trough develops and building easterly swell. Elevated seas and stronger winds will lead to a long duration of Small Craft Advisories Tuesday night through the reminder of the period. The presence of the coastal trough will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through the first half of next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 41 69 59 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 63 38 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 40 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 38 67 52 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 48 67 63 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 41 68 58 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ251-254-255-351- 354-355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155-170-175.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ150-155.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ170-175.

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Port Isabel
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Sun -- 04:46 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM CST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:45 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 PM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Sun -- 04:46 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM CST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:47 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 PM CST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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