Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Starting with Saturday, a low-level jet around 40 knots continues appear over lower Texas coast starting in early part of Saturday.
The possibility of stronger winds and gust mixing down continues to need to be monitored. If the winds and gusts are able to mix down, then wind advisories are likely to be need along the coast. The latest guidance does move this low-level jet off the coast by Sunday.

An upper-level trough is still expected to move through the Central Plains this weekend, which will push a cold front south through Central Texas. The latest model guidance does show the front move into the Northern Ranchlands late Sunday into early Monday. With the latest model trend continuing to push the front a bit south each run, rain chances may need to increase even further. Any additional movement southward of the front will allow for a greater source of lift and a better zone of moisture convergence. This in turn will result in more showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for Sunday and Monday.

As the front retreats from the region on Monday, upper-level zonal flow is expected to return. However, a few shortwaves could move through the region during the rest of the week resulting in some atmospheric instability that will help produce some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. However at this point chances for rain each afternoon for the rest of the long term forecast period are low (around 20%).

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. MVFR ceilings at BRO are expected to continue until after sunrise, with MVFR ceilings developing at HRL and MFE overnight.
Ceilings are expected to begin lifting later this morning, with VFR ceilings expected this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period, with wind speeds and gusts increasing around mid morning through the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Tonight through Friday night...Winds and seas will remain elevated through Friday due to the forcing from a tight pressure gradient, with some improvement Friday night. We extended the small craft advisory for all marine zones to Friday at 6 PM. Wave heights may continue elevated after that, requiring another SCA extension but winds will start to decrease.

Saturday through Next Thursday...While the early part of Saturday will see mostly adverse conditions on the waters with winds just under Small Craft Advisory, the winds and seas are expected become further elevated during the day, due to the pressure gradient tightening, resulting in hazardous conditions that will require Small Craft Advisories. Winds and seas are expected decrease during the day on Sunday leading to Small Craft Exercise Caution taking over into early Monday. Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected to return by Monday evening and last through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 10 20 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 89 / 0 0 10 20 MCALLEN 73 92 74 90 / 0 0 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 94 72 87 / 10 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 73 81 / 0 0 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.