South Padre Island, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX

June 17, 2024 10:06 AM CDT (15:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM
Moonrise 3:33 PM   Moonset 2:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 948 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

.small craft should exercise caution - .

Rest of today - Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming choppy this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.

Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Hazy after midnight.

Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Hazy in the morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the evening. Choppy on the bay. Showers likely in the evening. Thunderstorms likely. Showers after midnight.

Wednesday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Rough on the bay. Showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Rough on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 948 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis - Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected during the forecast due to the formation and eventual movement of a tropical system in the southern and western gulf of mexico. Mariners are strongly advised to Monitor the coastal waters forecast through the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Padre Island, TX
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Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 171121 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

This portion of the total forecast is expected to be the start of the much-discussed and much- anticipated significant precipitation event for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center lists a 60% chance of tropical formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next 48 hours, and a 70% chance of tropical formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next seven days. As this potential tropical system, combined with steadily-deepening tropical moisture (with precipitable water values ranging between 2 and 2.5 inches), moves towards the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will become scattered to numerous on Tuesday across the BRO CWFA.

Temperature-wise, above normal values are forecast for today and tonight, with daytime highs on Tuesday cooled to more near normal levels due to increased cloudiness and rain chances. Heat indices do not suggest a HEAT ADVISORY during the short term forecast period, so will cover the indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today and tomorrow.

Finally, slightly more adverse marine conditions, courtesy of an increase in winds and building of seas, will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches today through Tuesday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

* Tropical Cyclone Development in the SW Gulf remains at 70 percent

* Increasing Rain Chances with Periods of Heavy Rainfall around Mid through Late Week.

* Substantial Beneficial Rainfall Likely with Areas of Flooding Possible

Confidence remains high with increasing atmospheric moisture and the chances of rain increasing leading to periods of heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns in the long term forecast period.
The potential development of a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf of Mexico has increased to 60 percent within the next 48 hours and 70 percent within the next 7 days, though the system will not be around that long. Currently the system is located over the Central America and Southern Mexico, but is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche either today or tomorrow. Current model guidance still shows the center of this system moving into Central Mexico late Wednesday into Thursday. The model guidance does still show that there is another spin up that forms towards the end of the long term forecast period as well, however confidence is not high on the second system at this point.

Moving into the main event of the long term forecast period, the long awaited rainfall that is highly anticpated for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The moisture content of the atmosphere over the Western Gulf of Mexico and Deep South Texas is very likely to increase drastically as deep tropical moisture is transported north and west between the ridges along the Pacific and Atlantic coast. By the start of the long term forecast period the PWATS over the region are around 1.9 inches based on the GFS and the NAM, however the ECMWF has PWATS at 2.1 inches. PWATS continue to rise through the day on Wednesday eventually reaching its peak on Wednesday night at a value of 2.9 inches. The current total QPF is in the range of about 4 to 7 inches. While the soils are very dry and could take up quite a lot of rainfall, there is still the concern that some flooding could take place if heavy rain fall is persistent enough. WPC currently has a marginal to slight risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday through Thursday for parts or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

Expect many hazards to be in effect for the beaches during the long term forecast period as well. An enhanced pressure gradient is going to strengthen the southeasterly flow that will in turn build even greater swell. The result of this will be an increase in Rip Current risk, coastal flooding, high surf, and possible gale force gusts.

Lastly, the temperatures for the long term forecast period. With the expected cloud coverage from the rain, high temperatures are not expected to be too hot and actually close to normal. As such the high temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s. While the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with a few places getting into the 80s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No significant changes to the previous suite of TAFs. A TEMPO remains in effect for BRO and HRL for this morning's potential for convection. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all of the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds at night becoming breezy during the daytime. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will also occur.

MARINE
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today through Tuesday...This portion of the total marine forecast is highly dependent on the area of disturbed weather over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico, and the possible future development and movement of a tropical system within it. Overall, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) and Small Craft Advisory conditions (SCA) are anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast through the period, with SCEC likely needed today, and SCA needed tonight through Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Marine conditions are expected to be Hazardous Tuesday night and remain that way through the work week, with Saturday starting to see some improving conditions. An enhanced pressure gradient will generate moderate southeast winds and seas.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to be present Tuesday night through early Saturday for the Gulf waters. While hazardous conditions are expected to come to an end a little sooner for the Laguna Madre.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 80 92 78 / 50 50 80 80 HARLINGEN 96 76 93 75 / 40 30 80 80 MCALLEN 98 79 95 78 / 20 20 70 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 96 77 / 10 10 50 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 87 80 / 60 60 80 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 90 77 / 50 50 80 80

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BZST2 3 mi48 minESE 11G14 84°F 87°F29.71
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi48 minESE 9.9G12 85°F 86°F29.73
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 4 mi48 minESE 9.9G13 85°F 89°F29.75
RLIT2 12 mi48 minE 12G13 85°F 84°F29.74
PMNT2 34 mi48 min 86°F 90°F29.75


Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPIL PORT ISABELCAMERON COUNTY,TX 11 sm13 minSE 1210 smA Few Clouds90°F75°F63%29.76
KBRO BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTL,TX 20 sm13 minSE 0810 smMostly Cloudy90°F79°F71%29.76
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSPL
   
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Wind History graph: SPL
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Padre Island (South), Texas
   
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Padre Island (South)
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Mon -- 03:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:38 AM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:39 PM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
1
2
am
1.1
3
am
1.1
4
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1.1
5
am
1.1
6
am
1.1
7
am
1.1
8
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1
9
am
1
10
am
1
11
am
0.9
12
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0.8
1
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0.6
2
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0.4
3
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0.2
4
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0
5
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-0.2
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-0.3
7
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-0.3
8
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-0.2
9
pm
-0
10
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0.2
11
pm
0.4


Tide / Current for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
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Mon -- 02:11 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:57 AM CST     1.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:34 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 PM CST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
1
2
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1
3
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1.1
4
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1
5
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1
6
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1
7
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1
8
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0.9
9
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0.9
10
am
0.9
11
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0.8
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.2
4
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-0
5
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-0.2
6
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-0.2
7
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-0.2
8
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-0
9
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0.1
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of gulf of mexico   
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Brownsville, TX,




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