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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 308 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 30 to 35 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming very rough after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Very rough on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 308 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
light to moderate onshore flow will persist tonight across the coastal waters as low pressure develops and tracks eastward across the plains. A strong cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters late Saturday evening, bringing a chance of showers or Thunderstorms along the front. Strong northerly winds behind the front will likely produce gale conditions for most of the waters through Sunday morning. Building seas of 10 feet and higher will occur in the wake of this front. Winds will slowly diminish and seas will slowly subside by Sunday evening as the center of the high pressure area quickly shifts into the northwest gulf. Onshore flow will redevelop on Monday as high pressure shifts eastward along with low pressure developing across the southern plains.

FXUS64 KBRO 091135 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 535 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The main weather headline in the short term period is the arrival of a strong cold front, which will bring cooler temperatures, low rain chances, breezy north winds, and some adverse marine and beach conditions.

A warm start to the weekend is in store for all of Deep South Texas, with cloud cover and patchy fog clearing by mid to late morning.
Plentiful sunshine and persistent low level southerly flow ahead of a cold front will result in highs warming into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. The cold front is expected to arrive late Saturday evening across Deep South Texas, with most of the region remaining rain-free. The exception will be across Cameron and Willacy counties, where there may be sufficient moisture and forcing along the front to yield isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The latest high res guidance continues to highlight at least isolated convection along the front late Saturday evening across the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with higher coverage over the Gulf waters.
Temperatures will quickly fall with the arrival of the cooler airmass, with lows expected to range from the mid 40s along the Northern Ranchlands to low 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.

Breezy north winds in wake of the cold front will bring adverse marine and beach conditions along the Lower Texas Coast, in addition to coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties tonight into Sunday morning. Confidence has remained high (80% or greater) on the potential for gale force gusts over the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters, with medium to high confidence (60-80%) on the potential for wind gusts exceeding wind advisory criteria over the coastal counties. For now, opted to issue a Gale Warning for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters for tonight into Sunday morning, and a Wind Advisory for the Lower Texas beaches and coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. The Wind Advisory may need to be extended further inland to include the rest of the coastal counties if confidence increases on reaching Wind Advisory criteria. In addition, Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through Sunday evening over the Gulf waters. Building seas will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory tonight into Sunday.

Otherwise, Sunday will feature noticeably cooler temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s region wide. It will still be a bit breezy with northerly winds around 15-20MPH through most of the day, but should decrease slightly by late Sunday afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A weak 500mb ridge of high pressure with very dry air aloft builds into the region Sunday night into Monday, as the surface high pressure slides eastward across the Southeast. A coastal trough with some mid-level support and ample moisture sets up along the lower Texas coast Tuesday through late week. Rain chances increase mid to late week with the next system, especially Wednesday into Friday.

The coldest night of the week will be Sunday night due to efficient radiational cooling. Monday morning lows into the mid to upper 30s across the ranchlands and upper 30s to low 40s across the RGV. Wind Chill values may briefly dip below freezing across the northern ranchlands Monday morning, with winds below 10 mph. Abundant sunshine and the return of southeasterly winds will allow highs to reach the upper 60s to near 70 on Monday. Overall, expect near normal highs Tuesday through Thursday with lows warming into the low 60s by the end of the week. Finally, some hazardous beach conditions may linger into Monday morning.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Widespread MVFR/LIFR ceilings are observed across the region this morning as persistent low level southerly flow transports rich moisture. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR by mid to late morning, with VFR prevailing through the remainder of the period.
A cold front will arrive late this evening across the terminals, with a low potential for isolated to scattered convection along the boundary. Confidence was too low to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time, but will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, expect breezy northerly winds with gusts up to 25 knots possible.

MARINE
Issued at 342 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Today through Sunday...The pressure gradient will weaken slightly today, which will result in generally favorable marine conditions. A cold front will approach the region late this evening from the northwest, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along the boundary. In wake of the frontal passage, expect building seas and gale force gusts across all of the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre tonight through Sunday morning.
Although conditions will improve by late Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon, adverse marine conditions will likely continue with breezy winds and high seas. A Small Craft Advisory will likely needed through Sunday evening.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Small Craft Advisories will continue into Sunday night. Southeasterly winds return Monday as high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf, resulting in marine conditions improving fairly quickly, potentially becoming generally favorable by early Monday afternoon. Coastal low pressure brings a chance of rain to the coastal waters mid to late week and gradually builds seas into Thursday with Small Craft Advisories likely returning late Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 54 63 41 / 0 30 0 0 HARLINGEN 85 49 64 36 / 0 30 0 0 MCALLEN 85 51 64 38 / 0 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 83 50 63 36 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 57 62 51 / 0 30 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 52 63 42 / 0 30 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

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Padre Island (South)
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Sat -- 03:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:58 AM CST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:03 PM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
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Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Sat -- 03:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:10 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:26 PM CST     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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