Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX
December 7, 2024 2:57 PM CST (20:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:03 AM Sunset 5:40 PM Moonrise 12:15 PM Moonset 11:55 PM |
GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 952 Am Cst Sat Dec 7 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tonight - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming west after midnight. Smooth on the bay.
Sunday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay.
Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest early in the morning. Light chop on the bay, diminishing to smooth early in the morning.
Tuesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon, then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon, then increasing to choppy late in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night - North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Rough on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to light chop.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east late in the evening, then becoming south after midnight. Light chop on the bay, diminishing to smooth late in the evening, then increasing to light chop after midnight.
GMZ100 952 Am Cst Sat Dec 7 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate winds and moderate seas initially through about Tuesday. Conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with the passage of a cold front bringing fresh to strong winds and elevated seas, resulting in small craft advisories. There will be improvement Wednesday night as high pressure spreads over the area.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
| Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas, Tide feet
| Matamoros Click for Map Sat -- 07:04 AM CST Sunrise Sat -- 12:16 PM CST Moonrise Sat -- 01:11 PM CST -0.06 feet Low Tide Sat -- 05:39 PM CST Sunset Sat -- 10:09 PM CST 1.26 feet High Tide Sat -- 11:56 PM CST Moonset Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
FXUS64 KBRO 072043 AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 243 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
As the coastal trough continues to move towards the north and away from Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, the low-level clouds over the region are expected to lessen through the short-term forecast period. Starting off with the temperatures for the short- term forecast period, the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 50s, however parts of the Upper Valley could get into the upper 40s tonight. Moving into Sunday, with the low-level clouds expected to lessen and even clear in some parts of the region, the high temperatures could be in the range of the mid and upper 60s to low 70s depending on the timing of when the low-level clouds lessen or clear. If the low-level clouds persist longer than what is currently forecasted then the high temperatures could be much cooler than what is currently forecasted. To close out the section on temperatures, low temperatures for Sunday night are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 60s, however once again parts of the Upper Valley could be colder than the rest of the region with low temperatures in the upper 50s.
With the coastal trough pulling away, chances of rain are also expected to decrease as well even though there is still plenty of low-level moisture. However an rogue shower or two is still possible tonight, but by tomorrow expect mostly rain-free conditions for the rest of the short-term forecast period.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key Messages:
- Moderately strong cold front next Tuesday - Much cooler Wednesday through Thursday morning.
- Gale conditions over the coastal waters possible Tuesday night
Emphasis and the continued forecast challenge in the long term is Tuesday's cold front and temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday especially low temperatures for the respective days.
Before Tuesday's cold front temperatures warm up considerably as surface winds turn south and possibly gain a slight southwest downslope component with a shortwave trough crossing the Sierra Madre Oriental. 85H temps approach 19-20C which will relate to mid 80s across a large portion of the RGV especially as low clouds clear for the afternoon. The GFS even shows McAllen reaching 89 degrees so some additional adjustments in the current forecast are likely as we approach next week.
Timing of the frontal passage across the RGV is still showing up for a late morning or early afternoon with cold air advection lagging 2-4 hours in wake of the frontal boundary. Highs on Tuesday still expected to reach into the 70s across the north and likely to tip over 80 degrees in advance of the front for the RGV. There is a slight chance of a shower developing along the immediate front as it crosses the Lower RGV and runs into higher moisture content over the coastal waters.
As for the colder air, latest deterministic and ensemble models remain persistent on the cold air advection (CAA) lowering temperatures significantly for Wednesday morning, Wednesday and Thursday morning. However surface high pressure shifts a bit more quickly to east by Thursday morning with the GFS and ECMWF showing the center of the 1032mb ridge settling over the Southern Gulf States. This should allow for low level east to southeast winds to return late Wednesday night/Thu AM (albeit light) which is likely to cut off the CAA and curtail temperatures from nearing freezing across the northern/western ranchlands or dropping below 40 degrees across the RGV. At this time, the coldest temperatures maybe Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s to near 40 north and west and mid to upper 40s for the RGV. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 60s or approximately 10 degrees below normal.
Thursday morning lows similar to Wednesday AM if not a few degrees warmer than Wednesday AM.
For the end of the week and early next weekend, warmer temperatures with increasing clouds are forecast.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Currently IFR conditions are expected to last for a while long at all TAF sites, however the low-level clouds are expected to lift a bit to where MVFR conditions are expected to be the prevailing condition into this evening and generally last for the rest of the forecast period. Light northerly winds are expected to persist through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Tonight through Sunday Night...Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected to persist through Sunday night resulting in mostly favorable conditions. Some isolated showers are possible mostly over the Offshore Gulf waters.
Monday through Saturday...Fair marine conditions start off the new week with light to moderate southerly winds and low to moderate seas. Marine conditions quickly change Tuesday as a strong cold front surges through late morning or early afternoon Tuesday.
Mariners can expect deteriorating conditions Tuesday afternoon with hazardous conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. At this time probability of gale conditions Tuesday night have increased and are now as high as 40-60% for the Laguna Madre and 70-80% over the Gulf waters. Rough conditions continue Wednesday with slow improvement Wednesday and Thursday. Fair conditions return to the lower Texas coastal waters Friday and Saturday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 54 65 62 83 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 53 65 61 84 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 54 70 61 85 / 20 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 51 71 61 83 / 40 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 58 66 66 79 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 65 63 82 / 10 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 243 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
As the coastal trough continues to move towards the north and away from Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, the low-level clouds over the region are expected to lessen through the short-term forecast period. Starting off with the temperatures for the short- term forecast period, the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 50s, however parts of the Upper Valley could get into the upper 40s tonight. Moving into Sunday, with the low-level clouds expected to lessen and even clear in some parts of the region, the high temperatures could be in the range of the mid and upper 60s to low 70s depending on the timing of when the low-level clouds lessen or clear. If the low-level clouds persist longer than what is currently forecasted then the high temperatures could be much cooler than what is currently forecasted. To close out the section on temperatures, low temperatures for Sunday night are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 60s, however once again parts of the Upper Valley could be colder than the rest of the region with low temperatures in the upper 50s.
With the coastal trough pulling away, chances of rain are also expected to decrease as well even though there is still plenty of low-level moisture. However an rogue shower or two is still possible tonight, but by tomorrow expect mostly rain-free conditions for the rest of the short-term forecast period.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key Messages:
- Moderately strong cold front next Tuesday - Much cooler Wednesday through Thursday morning.
- Gale conditions over the coastal waters possible Tuesday night
Emphasis and the continued forecast challenge in the long term is Tuesday's cold front and temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday especially low temperatures for the respective days.
Before Tuesday's cold front temperatures warm up considerably as surface winds turn south and possibly gain a slight southwest downslope component with a shortwave trough crossing the Sierra Madre Oriental. 85H temps approach 19-20C which will relate to mid 80s across a large portion of the RGV especially as low clouds clear for the afternoon. The GFS even shows McAllen reaching 89 degrees so some additional adjustments in the current forecast are likely as we approach next week.
Timing of the frontal passage across the RGV is still showing up for a late morning or early afternoon with cold air advection lagging 2-4 hours in wake of the frontal boundary. Highs on Tuesday still expected to reach into the 70s across the north and likely to tip over 80 degrees in advance of the front for the RGV. There is a slight chance of a shower developing along the immediate front as it crosses the Lower RGV and runs into higher moisture content over the coastal waters.
As for the colder air, latest deterministic and ensemble models remain persistent on the cold air advection (CAA) lowering temperatures significantly for Wednesday morning, Wednesday and Thursday morning. However surface high pressure shifts a bit more quickly to east by Thursday morning with the GFS and ECMWF showing the center of the 1032mb ridge settling over the Southern Gulf States. This should allow for low level east to southeast winds to return late Wednesday night/Thu AM (albeit light) which is likely to cut off the CAA and curtail temperatures from nearing freezing across the northern/western ranchlands or dropping below 40 degrees across the RGV. At this time, the coldest temperatures maybe Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s to near 40 north and west and mid to upper 40s for the RGV. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 60s or approximately 10 degrees below normal.
Thursday morning lows similar to Wednesday AM if not a few degrees warmer than Wednesday AM.
For the end of the week and early next weekend, warmer temperatures with increasing clouds are forecast.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Currently IFR conditions are expected to last for a while long at all TAF sites, however the low-level clouds are expected to lift a bit to where MVFR conditions are expected to be the prevailing condition into this evening and generally last for the rest of the forecast period. Light northerly winds are expected to persist through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Tonight through Sunday Night...Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected to persist through Sunday night resulting in mostly favorable conditions. Some isolated showers are possible mostly over the Offshore Gulf waters.
Monday through Saturday...Fair marine conditions start off the new week with light to moderate southerly winds and low to moderate seas. Marine conditions quickly change Tuesday as a strong cold front surges through late morning or early afternoon Tuesday.
Mariners can expect deteriorating conditions Tuesday afternoon with hazardous conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. At this time probability of gale conditions Tuesday night have increased and are now as high as 40-60% for the Laguna Madre and 70-80% over the Gulf waters. Rough conditions continue Wednesday with slow improvement Wednesday and Thursday. Fair conditions return to the lower Texas coastal waters Friday and Saturday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 54 65 62 83 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 53 65 61 84 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 54 70 61 85 / 20 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 51 71 61 83 / 40 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 58 66 66 79 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 65 63 82 / 10 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BZST2 | 3 mi | 58 min | NW 9.9G | 56°F | 69°F | 30.13 | ||
| PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX | 3 mi | 58 min | NW 9.9G | 57°F | 68°F | 30.14 | ||
| PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX | 4 mi | 58 min | NW 8G | 56°F | 73°F | 30.17 | ||
| RLIT2 | 12 mi | 58 min | NW 8G | 56°F | 65°F | 30.15 | ||
| PMNT2 | 34 mi | 58 min | 59°F | 69°F | 30.15 |
Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSPL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSPL
Wind History Graph: SPL
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains
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Brownsville, TX,
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