Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naples, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels.
Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week.

With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time.

Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern aloft across the southeast CONUS through the end of the week. The upper low over the western Atlantic will begin to dissolve and high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward over the Florida peninsula. Pressure heights will increase slightly across the region heading into next week, with a new H5 centroid positioning itself over north Florida by Sunday afternoon.
Pressure heights will generally be in the 588 dm to 592 dm range through the period, which are within the upper quartile for this time of year. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep the easterly wind regime through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to advect some waves of higher moisture, where PWATs may climb up to 1.8 inches. But for the most part, precipitable water content will generally remain about average at 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Models are not showing as clear cut of a middle dry layer, but ridging aloft should contribute to some mid-level subsidence and suppression of stronger storm activity. Overall, with easterly flow prevailing, the highest chances for afternoon storm activity will focus along the Gulf breeze over interior and southwest Florida each afternoon.

Temperatures will trend slightly higher for the weekend and towards the beginning of next week. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Atlantic coast to the mid 90s in southwest Florida. Heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for parts of Collier and Monroe counties. At this time, Heat Advisories look unlikely, but the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool continues to show increased chances (40% to 50%) of Major HeatRisk.
These conditions will affect anyone without proper hydration or cooling. Some guidance is also showing that overnight lows may stay quite warm across the east coast metros, with temperatures only dropping to upper 70s and low 80s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Isolated SHRA will continue along the east coast of South Florida this morning before SHRA/TSRA activity increases in coverage and shifts over to the western half of the peninsula this afternoon and evening. Light east-southeasterly flow will enhance out of a breezy southeasterly direction at all east coast terminals while veering onshore (southwesterly) at KAPF later this afternoon.
TEMPOs for KAPF may be needed with additional TAF updates.

MARINE
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 88 78 89 79 / 20 0 20 10 West Kendall 89 74 90 75 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 20 0 20 10 Homestead 88 77 89 78 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 87 79 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 78 87 79 / 10 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 91 79 / 20 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 87 79 / 10 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 79 87 80 / 10 10 20 10 Naples 90 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.