Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:45 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of tonight - N nw winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of tstms late in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - N ne winds 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 4 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - NEarshore, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne in the morning. Offshore, N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 4 seconds and sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Wed - NEarshore, E winds 5 kt becoming W sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Offshore, E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon becoming nw in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds around 5 kt becoming E late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - E se winds around 5 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds around 5 kt becoming E se late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Fri - SE winds around 5 kt becoming S sw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds around 5 kt becoming se 5 kt late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.

GMZ600 914 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Primarily a light west to northwest flow continues tonight through Monday night, but winds could become light and variable at times. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Friday. Seas generally remain 2 feet or less through the period.

FXUS62 KMFL 200619 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday.

Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft.

Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area).

The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area).
Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern.

Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals.
There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z.
Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning, although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea breeze is low.

MARINE
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 92 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 95 74 90 73 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 Homestead 94 75 89 76 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 76 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 72 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Boca Raton 93 74 88 75 / 60 50 50 40 Naples 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Naples
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Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:41 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:18 AM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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