Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo Gardens, TX

UPDATE
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Confidence has increased that gale conditions will likely develop along the lower Texas coast late Sunday night into Monday in the wake of the strong cold front. In fact, the latest NAM indicates a long duration of sustain gale winds over the Gulf waters late Sunday night. Therefore, will upgrade the previous Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters starting at 10 PM this evening.

Have upgraded the previously issued Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning as confidence continues to increase early this morning that elevated to critical fire weather conditions will develop across much of Deep South Texas, except for the islands, late Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A multi-faceted, multi-hazard weather event that includes a heightened threat for wildfires along with multiple coastal/marine hazards and high winds is expected to take place in the next 24-48 hours of Sunday evening through Monday. Following a heat spike that will include record to near record-breaking temperatures with many areas topping the century mark, ultimately resulting in Moderate (Level 2 of 5) Heat Risk on Sunday, a powerful cold front will generate drastic and significant changes to the weather pattern that includes a 40-50F degree plunge in temperatures from Sunday's highs to Monday morning's lows.

The latest GOES-19 Infrared satellite imagery depicted a mainly clear sky across Deep South Texas with some low level streamer clouds moving inland near the coast. Despite the decreased mixing heights, south-southeasterly winds will remain elevated through tonight due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Warm air advection (WAA) from the southerly winds will help to keep overnight low temperatures mild, slightly above normal with values in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 60s/near 70F degrees along the Rio Grande Valley.

During the day on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a dryline will push through the western half of the area, triggering a wind shift out of the west. Strong compressional heating from westerly winds near the sfc and aloft will exacerbate the heating across the region. This will result in a heat spike with high temperatures surging into the mid 90s to lower 100s. These values, which will be well above normal on the order of 15-20F+ degrees will be at record to near record-breaking levels (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). Elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Sunday for at least parts of the area. Behind the dryline, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20s and teens. Winds look to hold just below criteria. That said, trends need to be monitored on Sunday for a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) across at least parts of the area.

Significant and drastic weather changes are then expected to take place Sunday evening/night. Numerous global forecast models and ensembles continue to show an anomalously strong and broad 591-594 mb mid-upper Sonoran ridge/heat dome developing over the Southwestern U.S. Sunday evening. This enormous and strong weather feature will result in an early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S.

Meanwhile, on the east or leeward side of this feature, northwest winds aloft will help to drive a powerful sfc cold front southward through the central U.S. This cold front is associated with a maturing and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone that will bring a combination of winter weather including blizzard conditions to the northern Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest to severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to parts of the Midwest and South Sunday afternoon/evening. Behind this cold front is a modified Arctic airmass that will envelope much of the country, particularly the interior U.S.

Sunday evening through Monday morning, this cold front is expected to sweep through all of Texas including Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Following the cold fropa, temperatures a expected to sharply fall. After a day on record to near record-breaking, triple digit heating, a 40-50F degree drop off in temperature is expected to occur behind the cold front by Monday morning with overnight lows progged to be in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to the mid-upper 50s along the Rio Grande Valley.

In addition to the sharp drop off in temps, a tight pressure and thermal gradient will result in strong, potentially damaging winds developing Sunday night and especially on Monday. Northerly winds 25- 35 mph gusting as high as 50 mph is expected. There could be instances where winds gusts as high as 50-60 mph on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties from 10 PM CDT Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday. We will keep close watch on forecast trends to see if we need to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Regardless, it's possible that wind gusts could at times in spots exceed 55 mph on Monday.

The combination of strong winds and low relative humidity values behind the front will trigger critical fire weather risks on Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). In addition to the fire weather concerns on Monday, strong winds Sunday through Monday will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

With a 1020-1030 mb modified Arctic airmass in place over the southern Plains and a full cold air advection (CAA) regime in place, high temperatures on Monday will be cooler or below normal levels with values holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night will be the coldest of the period with the help of adequate radiational cooling amid clear skies. Overnight lows Monday night are progged to be in the 40s most places to 50s along/near the coast.

Beyond Monday, a warming trend will take place through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning to unseasonably warm levels by Thursday of next week. Dry/rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Moderate to gusty south winds and low stratus prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will continue to include a TEMPO at local terminals due to some MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today into at least late this evening.
Breezy southeast to south winds will persist this morning into the early afternoon. A dryline/surface boundary will approach from the west this afternoon resulting in a wind shift and lighter winds, especially at MFE. Light to moderate winds late this evening will increase late this evening and overnight as a strong cold front approaches and then moves through the region.

MARINE
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 7 AM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Sunday night due to strong southerly winds sustained at or above 20 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters Sunday night through Monday evening for gusts topping 40 kts. Monday night, marine conditions look to improve. Wednesday through next weekend, favorable marine conditions can be expected with low to moderate winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Sunday for at least parts of the area. A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of the region Sunday afternoon. Westerly winds will trigger strong compressional heating and a heat spike on Sunday. The combination of hot temperatures, an ongoing drought, low relative humidity values, and at times breezy winds could result in an elevated risk for fire danger on Sunday. The wildcard will be how strong the winds get.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island for Monday due to a critical risk for fire danger. A strong cold front will result in strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday. Strong winds combined with low relative humidity values will result in a critical wildfire risk on Monday. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is likely.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong compressional heating on westerly winds behind a dryline will result in a heat spike with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s most places. This will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Sunday. Below are the record high temperatures for March 15th.

Record Highs for March 15:

Brownsville (BRO): 98F degrees in 2008

Harlingen (HRL): 100F degrees in 2008

McAllen (MFE): 103F degrees in 2008

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 59 66 53 / 0 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 52 67 46 / 0 20 10 0 MCALLEN 102 55 71 50 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 54 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 60 65 58 / 0 30 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 57 67 53 / 0 20 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.