Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo Gardens, TX
April 20, 2025 9:33 PM CDT (02:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:00 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 1:08 AM Moonset 11:39 AM |
GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 844 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 20 2025
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 844 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 20 2025
Synopsis - An enhanced pressure gradient will result in adverse marine conditions over the gulf waters through the early parts of the new workweek. Additionally, a stalled frontal boundary will also lead to isolated showers and Thunderstorms capable of producing locally stronger gusts each day. By mid week, high pressure builds in, resulting in moderate winds and seas along the lower texas coast.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arroyo Gardens, TX
NEW! Add second zone forecast
| Port Isabel Click for Map Sun -- 02:06 AM CDT Moonrise Sun -- 02:54 AM CDT -0.11 feet Low Tide Sun -- 07:00 AM CDT Sunrise Sun -- 12:38 PM CDT Moonset Sun -- 02:11 PM CDT 1.57 feet High Tide Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset Sun -- 08:37 PM CDT Last Quarter Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
| Port Isabel Click for Map Sun -- 02:06 AM CDT Moonrise Sun -- 02:58 AM CDT 0.08 feet Low Tide Sun -- 07:00 AM CDT Sunrise Sun -- 12:38 PM CDT Moonset Sun -- 02:56 PM CDT 1.43 feet High Tide Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset Sun -- 08:37 PM CDT Last Quarter Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
FXUS64 KBRO 202351 AAA AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Visible satellite shows a uniform stratus deck across much of Deep South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley early this afternoon. WPC mesoanalysis shows the cold front draped across eastern Zapata into Jim Hogg county and slowly moving eastward. Owing to an anomalously moist air mass with PWATs of 1.6 inches or equivalent to 90th percentile of SPC sounding climatology, light to moderate showers this morning have produced 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across parts of Hidalgo and coastal Willacy into Kenedy counties. For our climate sites, the rainfall finally breaks a 22-day dry spell dating back to the historic flooding that parts of our region saw between March 26 and 28.
With the vertically stacked low pressure system situated over the Texas Panhandle and lifting northeastward into Kansas/Missouri, our region is too far south to tap into the favorable right entrance region of the 80-90 kt jet streak. However, also shows an 80kt jet streak nosing into Coahuila late this afternoon into evening, which would put the Rio Grande Valley in the favorable left exit region of this southern jet. As the cold front slowly propagates eastward, if there is enough breaks in the clouds, it's not out of the question that there are isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into evening. With steep 2-6 km AGL lapse rates and 40-50 kt bulk shear, if the cap breaks, a storm or two could become locally strong or even briefly severe. But widespread severe weather or hydrologic concerns are not expected, which is why SPC maintains a general thunder convective outlook and WPC has no excessive rainfall outlook for our region during the forecast period.
The cold front unfortunately does not bring a noticeable drop in dew points, with the pea soup or very muggy conditions continuing to persist overnight into the start of the new work week. Surface high pressure briefly builds towards our coastal zones from the west, so the winds should lighten due to the slackening of the surface pressure gradient. With the beneficial rainfall introducing moisture into the boundary layer and lighter winds, expect patchy fog to develop overnight tonight, especially along and east of I-69C/US-281 corridor.
Temperatures wise, expecting fairly seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid 80s (except upper 80s across the western zones where the sun breaks out). Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s, except mid to upper 60s across the western zones.
Rip current risk remains high through this evening, becoming moderate for the first half of the new work week.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
A broad upper level ridge will remain over Deep South Texas throughout this upcoming week, with mostly zonal mid-level flow persisting. A series of mid-level disturbances embedded within the flow are likely to bring elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms through the first half of the week, some of which could carry the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places all of the County Warning Area (CWA) under a general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)'s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday outlines a Marginal (level 1/4) over the northern half of Kenedy County, most of Brooks County and the northeastern side of Jim Hogg County. This means that there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point for these locations.
Throughout the day Tuesday, positive vorticity advection will enhance over the CWA ahead of a mid-level disturbance passing east- northeastward over northern-central Mexico. This will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms west of I-69 E from low (15- 20%) in the morning to moderate (around 30-40%) for the afternoon and early evening hours. Throughout the rest of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, chances gradually reduce to low-to-medium (15-30%) across the Northern Ranchlands, Zapata County and the Upper RGV. It should be noted that there still exists uncertainty in timing, location and strength of the mid-level disturbance and the resulting rainfall.
Throughout the rest of Wednesday, the disturbance will move offshore and weak troughing over the Sierra Madre will allow for smaller disturbances to pass through, bringing a low (15-20%) chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for Zapata County and western portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV on Wednesday and Thursday. Following, the mid/upper flow pattern becomes ridging dominated, thus limiting convection for the rest of the period.
Increased cloud coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday will aid in high temperatures remaining near normal with temperatures mostly in the upper 80, possibly nearing 90 in some locations west of I-69 E and lower 90s in Zapata County. Thursday through Sunday, lower 90s become more widespread while coastal areas remain in the upper 80s; overall, about 3-5 degrees above average. Lows remain slightly above average, falling into the low 70s. Temperatures at SPI will continue to range between the mid and upper 70s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Through 00z Tuesday.....
Key Aviation IDSS Messages:
* Isolated to scattered showers through tonight and through the first half of the day on Monday.
* MVFR-IFR cigs and visibilities due to a combination of occasional showers and/or fog/mist/low stratus.
Messy weather conditions are expected to persist over the next 12-18 hours across the local terminals due to a frontal boundary that has stalled out over the region. As of this update, flying conditions were ranging between VFR-MVFR. Latest satellite and radar imagery showed a BKN-OVC deck of stratus and stratocumulus clouds overhead with some isolated to scattered rain showers ahead of the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary.
Over the next 6-9 hours, the expectation is for mainly MVFR conditions to be in place over the terminals with the potential for IFR-LIFR conditions developing due to either moderate rain showers or the development of some mist/fog/low stratus, given that there is copious amounts of low level moisture trapped underneath a low level inversion and on top of light winds. Any mist/fog development should be most prominent starting around 03z and persisting to the early to mid morning hours.
During the day on Monday, isolated to scattered showers are expected once again with coverage shifting from east to west as the day progresses. Have Prob30s in place to account for this potential. Forecast models are indicating that rain showers should begin to cease around 21z or so, especially over KBRO and KHRL.
By Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a return to VFR conditions, though there could be another round of mist/fog potential Monday night.
Light and variable to calm winds will persist through the overnight into Monday morning. During the day on Monday, a light southeast component is expected to develop with magnitudes between 5-10 kts.
MARINE
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Tonight through Monday night...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 8 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 7 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 19 UTC. With winds subsiding but seas remaining elevated, have converted the inner marine zones (GMZ155 and GMZ150) to Small Craft Exercise Caution for remainder of the afternoon while extending the Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters (GMZ175 and GMZ170) till early Monday morning. Winds should generally stay in the 10 kt range with gusts of 15 kt at times but if thunderstorms were to develop, there could be locally stronger gusts. Mariners should stay vigilant of changing marine conditions.
Tuesday through Sunday...Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across all Lower Texas coastal waters throughout the period, resulting in moderate seas (mostly 4-5 feet). Moderate to fresh winds each afternoon and evening over the Laguna Madre could warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC). SCEC is also possible across the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters Thursday into Friday as a pressure gradient tightens slightly offshore. There is a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 84 72 85 / 30 50 10 20 HARLINGEN 69 86 70 87 / 30 60 0 20 MCALLEN 73 88 73 90 / 30 60 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 87 71 90 / 10 50 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 80 / 20 40 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 83 71 84 / 30 50 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ170-175.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Visible satellite shows a uniform stratus deck across much of Deep South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley early this afternoon. WPC mesoanalysis shows the cold front draped across eastern Zapata into Jim Hogg county and slowly moving eastward. Owing to an anomalously moist air mass with PWATs of 1.6 inches or equivalent to 90th percentile of SPC sounding climatology, light to moderate showers this morning have produced 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across parts of Hidalgo and coastal Willacy into Kenedy counties. For our climate sites, the rainfall finally breaks a 22-day dry spell dating back to the historic flooding that parts of our region saw between March 26 and 28.
With the vertically stacked low pressure system situated over the Texas Panhandle and lifting northeastward into Kansas/Missouri, our region is too far south to tap into the favorable right entrance region of the 80-90 kt jet streak. However, also shows an 80kt jet streak nosing into Coahuila late this afternoon into evening, which would put the Rio Grande Valley in the favorable left exit region of this southern jet. As the cold front slowly propagates eastward, if there is enough breaks in the clouds, it's not out of the question that there are isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into evening. With steep 2-6 km AGL lapse rates and 40-50 kt bulk shear, if the cap breaks, a storm or two could become locally strong or even briefly severe. But widespread severe weather or hydrologic concerns are not expected, which is why SPC maintains a general thunder convective outlook and WPC has no excessive rainfall outlook for our region during the forecast period.
The cold front unfortunately does not bring a noticeable drop in dew points, with the pea soup or very muggy conditions continuing to persist overnight into the start of the new work week. Surface high pressure briefly builds towards our coastal zones from the west, so the winds should lighten due to the slackening of the surface pressure gradient. With the beneficial rainfall introducing moisture into the boundary layer and lighter winds, expect patchy fog to develop overnight tonight, especially along and east of I-69C/US-281 corridor.
Temperatures wise, expecting fairly seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid 80s (except upper 80s across the western zones where the sun breaks out). Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s, except mid to upper 60s across the western zones.
Rip current risk remains high through this evening, becoming moderate for the first half of the new work week.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
A broad upper level ridge will remain over Deep South Texas throughout this upcoming week, with mostly zonal mid-level flow persisting. A series of mid-level disturbances embedded within the flow are likely to bring elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms through the first half of the week, some of which could carry the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places all of the County Warning Area (CWA) under a general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)'s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday outlines a Marginal (level 1/4) over the northern half of Kenedy County, most of Brooks County and the northeastern side of Jim Hogg County. This means that there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point for these locations.
Throughout the day Tuesday, positive vorticity advection will enhance over the CWA ahead of a mid-level disturbance passing east- northeastward over northern-central Mexico. This will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms west of I-69 E from low (15- 20%) in the morning to moderate (around 30-40%) for the afternoon and early evening hours. Throughout the rest of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, chances gradually reduce to low-to-medium (15-30%) across the Northern Ranchlands, Zapata County and the Upper RGV. It should be noted that there still exists uncertainty in timing, location and strength of the mid-level disturbance and the resulting rainfall.
Throughout the rest of Wednesday, the disturbance will move offshore and weak troughing over the Sierra Madre will allow for smaller disturbances to pass through, bringing a low (15-20%) chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for Zapata County and western portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV on Wednesday and Thursday. Following, the mid/upper flow pattern becomes ridging dominated, thus limiting convection for the rest of the period.
Increased cloud coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday will aid in high temperatures remaining near normal with temperatures mostly in the upper 80, possibly nearing 90 in some locations west of I-69 E and lower 90s in Zapata County. Thursday through Sunday, lower 90s become more widespread while coastal areas remain in the upper 80s; overall, about 3-5 degrees above average. Lows remain slightly above average, falling into the low 70s. Temperatures at SPI will continue to range between the mid and upper 70s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Through 00z Tuesday.....
Key Aviation IDSS Messages:
* Isolated to scattered showers through tonight and through the first half of the day on Monday.
* MVFR-IFR cigs and visibilities due to a combination of occasional showers and/or fog/mist/low stratus.
Messy weather conditions are expected to persist over the next 12-18 hours across the local terminals due to a frontal boundary that has stalled out over the region. As of this update, flying conditions were ranging between VFR-MVFR. Latest satellite and radar imagery showed a BKN-OVC deck of stratus and stratocumulus clouds overhead with some isolated to scattered rain showers ahead of the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary.
Over the next 6-9 hours, the expectation is for mainly MVFR conditions to be in place over the terminals with the potential for IFR-LIFR conditions developing due to either moderate rain showers or the development of some mist/fog/low stratus, given that there is copious amounts of low level moisture trapped underneath a low level inversion and on top of light winds. Any mist/fog development should be most prominent starting around 03z and persisting to the early to mid morning hours.
During the day on Monday, isolated to scattered showers are expected once again with coverage shifting from east to west as the day progresses. Have Prob30s in place to account for this potential. Forecast models are indicating that rain showers should begin to cease around 21z or so, especially over KBRO and KHRL.
By Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a return to VFR conditions, though there could be another round of mist/fog potential Monday night.
Light and variable to calm winds will persist through the overnight into Monday morning. During the day on Monday, a light southeast component is expected to develop with magnitudes between 5-10 kts.
MARINE
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Tonight through Monday night...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 8 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 7 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 19 UTC. With winds subsiding but seas remaining elevated, have converted the inner marine zones (GMZ155 and GMZ150) to Small Craft Exercise Caution for remainder of the afternoon while extending the Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters (GMZ175 and GMZ170) till early Monday morning. Winds should generally stay in the 10 kt range with gusts of 15 kt at times but if thunderstorms were to develop, there could be locally stronger gusts. Mariners should stay vigilant of changing marine conditions.
Tuesday through Sunday...Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across all Lower Texas coastal waters throughout the period, resulting in moderate seas (mostly 4-5 feet). Moderate to fresh winds each afternoon and evening over the Laguna Madre could warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC). SCEC is also possible across the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters Thursday into Friday as a pressure gradient tightens slightly offshore. There is a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 84 72 85 / 30 50 10 20 HARLINGEN 69 86 70 87 / 30 60 0 20 MCALLEN 73 88 73 90 / 30 60 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 87 71 90 / 10 50 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 80 / 20 40 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 83 71 84 / 30 50 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ170-175.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RLIT2 | 11 mi | 46 min | SSE 14G | 78°F | 79°F | 29.91 | ||
| PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX | 20 mi | 46 min | SSE 11G | 77°F | 80°F | 29.93 | ||
| PMNT2 | 21 mi | 46 min | 77°F | 80°F | 29.92 | |||
| PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX | 22 mi | 46 min | SE 11G | 77°F | 78°F | 29.91 | ||
| BZST2 | 23 mi | 46 min | SSE 9.9G | 77°F | 78°F | 29.88 | ||
| RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX | 37 mi | 46 min | SE 8G | 77°F | 78°F | 29.92 |
Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHRL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHRL
Wind History Graph: HRL
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of gulf of mexico
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Brownsville, TX,
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