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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 319 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots increasing to 25 to 35 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming very rough after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Very rough on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 319 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
moderate onshore flow will persist tonight across the coastal waters as low pressure develops and tracks eastward across the plains. A strong cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters on Saturday night bringing a chance of showers or Thunderstorms along the front. Strong northerly winds behind the front will likely produce gale conditions for most of the waters through Sunday morning. Building seas of 10 feet and higher will occur in the wake of this front. Winds will slowly diminish and seas will slowly subside by Sunday evening as the center of the high pressure area quickly shifts into the northwest gulf. Onshore flow will redevelop on Monday as high pressure shifts eastward along with low pressure developing across the southern plains.

FXUS64 KBRO 082054 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 254 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Zonal flow aloft and persistent southerly flow in the boundary layer will maintain dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Saturday across the entire CWA. The approaching cold front and the presence of a weak surface trough axis will aid in temperatures peaking tomorrow. After the overnight and morning low clouds (and patchy fog across the Northern Ranchlands) burn off, another mostly sunny day is expected on Saturday. As a result, boosted NBM Saturday high temperatures by several degrees, especially across the Lower and Mid Valley regions.

A potent shortwave originating from the Rockies will continue to dive southeastward into the Central and Southern Plains through the period and drive a strong cold front through our CWA on Saturday night. The frontal timing still looks like it will move into the Northern Ranchlands between 23Z Saturday and 02Z Sunday and through the remainder of the CWA by 05Z Sunday. NBM probabilities still point to at least a 60-80% potential of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron island and coastal zones reaching Wind Advisory criteria during the morning hours on Sunday. As for rain chances with the front, decided to include a mention of isolated convection for areas generally east of I-69E and for areas extending westward toward Weslaco. Sufficient boundary layer moisture convergence and kinematic forcing will be enough to warrant POPs for these areas.
The better rain chances will remain over the coastal waters with the better forcing and moisture profile. Strong cold air advection will help to lower temps into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the CWA on Sunday morning.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

The start of the long term forecast will the aftereffects from a strong cold front that is expected to move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday night. Strong winds with cold and dry air is expected to move into the region during the day on Sunday. There are several potential hazards that are expected to be in effect early Sunday. The possibility for Wind Advisories the early parts of Sunday morning for coastal Cameron, Kenedy, and Willacy counties. Another potential hazard could be tied to elevated fire weather concerns. With the elevated 20-foots winds still expected around for the early parts of Sunday along with the minimum relative humidity under 30 percent for most of the CWA this would result in fire weather concerns. However, there is a possibility of the winds coming down before the relative humidity drops out. This situation will require further monitoring to see how this situation develops. There are concerns for High Risk of rip currents, high surf, and potentially minor coastal flooding as well. It should be noted that the stronger northerly push does occur at low tide, so that may help reduce the coastal flood risk. Finally, Wind Chill values approach freezing across the Northern Ranchlands on Monday morning.

However, the impacts from the strong cold front are not the only weather event to discuss for the long term forecast period. A coastal trough with some mid-level support and ample moisture is expected to develop off the coast on Tuesday, which will be the main source of rain for the long term forecast period. However, the PoPs are only around 30 percent at best especially Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of the rain, expect skies to be mostly cloudy to overcast for the rest of the long term forecast period.

As for temperatures, low temperatures for Monday morning are going to be the coldest for the long term period. With the Northern Ranchlands in the upper 30s and the Lower Rio Grande Valley in the low 40s. However, on Monday, the winds shift towards the southeast and a slight warming trend begins. While the coastal trough that was mentioned before is going to hamper some of the warming with the cloud cover, the CWA is expected to be about seasonal temperatures for the rest of the long term period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions will persist until the early evening across the Valley TAF sites. Brief southerly wind gusts of 28-32 kt will occur through the mid afternoon today across the BRO and HRL TAF sites. A moist boundary layer and southerly flow along with subtly boundary layer cooling will promote MVFR stratus to begin developing by 03-06Z this evening. Patchy IFR ceilings will be possible mainly across the MFE TAF site for the 10-15Z time period on Saturday. Ceilings will begin slowly lifting by 15-16Z Saturday as mixing ensues.

MARINE
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Tonight through Saturday Night...The southerly gradient and resulting seas will remain just below small craft advisory levels through tonight. The southerly gradient will slowly weaken throughout the day on Saturday as the next front approaches from the northwest. The current Gale Watch for Saturday evening through noon on Sunday still looks like an excellent forecast. NBM probabilities have been very persistent since yesterday in depicting at least a 80-90% chance of most of the coastal waters experiencing gale force gusts during this same timeframe. This is very reasonable given the strong gradient and cold air advection.
An actual Gale Warning will likely be needed by Saturday morning but a bit too early to upgrade right now. Wavewatch has been consistent in depicting seas building to as high as 15 feet across the offshore waters early Sunday morning. Will maintain the chance/likely POPs for the nearshore/offshore waters and slight chance POPs for the bays for Saturday night due to the frontal forcing interacting with a better moisture profile as you go east.

Sunday through Next Friday...Hazardous conditions are expected for the start of period on Sunday with Gale conditions and high seas. However, conditions are expected to improve on Monday as the winds and seas subside and last into early Wednesday. After that conditions are expected to fall apart again due to an interaction with a coastal trough and building easterlies resulting in hazardous conditions through the end of the period. Isolated showers are possible as the coastal trough develops on Tuesday and persists through next Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Sunday...Following the front elevated winds are expected for the early parts of Sunday and possibly into the afternoon. Alongside this, the relative humidity is expected to drop into the teens in parts of Zapata and Jim Hogg and under 30 percent for the rest of the region. The timing of these two event will be critical for the any fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 85 53 63 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 66 86 49 64 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 66 86 50 64 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 84 50 63 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 57 62 / 0 0 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 83 52 63 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

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Port Isabel
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Fri -- 02:52 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:35 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:51 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM CST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
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Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Fri -- 12:49 AM CST     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:52 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:16 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:35 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:18 PM CST     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:00 PM CST     0.87 feet Low Tide
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Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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