Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Naples Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:57PMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 921 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds late in the evening. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers late in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West southwest winds 5 knots becoming west northwest after midnight, then becoming northeast in the morning. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 5 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1030 Am Cdt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to northwest flow today becomes southwest Sunday afternoon, with a southwesterly flow continuing through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly near the coast through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples Park, FL
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location: 26.28, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 111351 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 951 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Update. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning across the Gulf waters and west coast, as well as isolated areas over the east coast metro. This is a little earlier start to the convection today compared to previous days with a mid- level disturbance that has moved into the area.

Abundant tropical moisture remains across South Florida, this was evident in the 12Z MFL sounding that had a precipitable water level of 1.92 inches, as well as satellite derived PWAT values around 1.9-2 inches. Ongoing convection will move eastward over the east coast metro later this morning. This first round of convection will be mainly for the interior, Broward and Miami- Dade counties with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Later this afternoon, additional rounds of thunderstorms over the interior and east coast metro with westerly/southwesterly flow across the region. Both sea breezes will develop with the east coast seabreeze to be pinned over the eastern metro, for additional development along outflow boundaries and sea breeze interactions. Hi- res model are also trying to hint at additional convective development late this evening over the Lake and Palm Beach area from outflow boundaries from anticipated convection over Central Florida. Overall, an active day across South Florida with showers and thunderstorms across the region. Main impacts will be heavy rainfall, with light wind flow that may lead to localized flooding with high rainfall rates and multiple rounds of storms possible, frequent lightning strikes and potential for a strong wind gust in the deepest convection.

Temperatures will be warm again in the low to mid 90s but additional cloud cover and an earlier start to convection will keep us from hitting heat advisory criteria. However, dangerous heat indices will still soar into the triple digits across all of South Florida.

Prev Discussion. /issued 719 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

Aviation . Scattered showers over the Gulf and western portions of the peninsula. These showers will gradually move towards the east coast in the mid -late morning hours. VCTS once again this afternoon with diurnal heating producing scattered storms. MVFR/IFR cigs and vis possible in any showers and storms. Convection diminishes after sunset with light winds overnight

Prev Discussion . /issued 316 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

Short Term (Today through Sunday) . An unsettled pattern for the weekend with a mid-level trough sitting over the region. At the surface, a trough over the Atlantic and another off the Gulf coast are providing some lift for convection this morning. These features will persist through much of the weekend permitting higher shower and thunderstorm chances over South Florida. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the east coast once again approaching record territory. Additional cloud cover from any morning or midday convection could help portions of the area avoid the warmth seen on Friday, but heat index values will still reach well into the triple digits across South Florida.

The westerly flow at the surface will remain light, allowing sea breezes to form. The Gulf sea breeze will be favored while the Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned close to the east coast metro today. Moisture has been increasing with precipitable waters of 2+ inches forecast today over the region. A burst of tropical moisture from a perturbation in the Bahamas could enhance the heavy rain threat not only today but also on Sunday. There could also be some slight cooling at the mid-levels today which could enable some more vigorous convection capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and possibly waterspouts/funnel clouds. Convection will spread from west to east today with the peak focus this afternoon and early evening over portions of the east coast metro. Overnight, activity over land will eventually diminish but not entirely as some activity could linger over the area waters. A similar pattern will repeat on Sunday as well.

Long Term (Sunday night Through Friday) . On Sunday night into Monday, the mid level trough will slowly try to lift out of the region as an area of high pressure tries to build back in. This will allow for a return to a more typical summertime pattern across the region. The latest computer model guidance shows this area of high pressure continuing to build into the region through the middle of the week. Scattered showers and and thunderstorms will develop along the east and west coast sea breezes as they move inland during this time. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across the interior sections where the east and west coast sea breezes collide. High temperatures during the early to middle portion of the week will remain on the warm side as they will rise into the lower 90s across the east coast to the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections.

As the later half of the week approaches, both of the GFS and the ECMWF show an inverted trough pushing into the region from the Bahamas. This will help to advect deep tropical moisture into the region which would increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. With the increased moisture moving into the region, some of the thunderstorms would have the potential to produce heavy rainfall which could lead to some flooding especially in the urban and poor drainage areas. This will continue to be watched as the week progresses.

Marine . Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and may create locally hazardous winds and seas. Waterspouts are also possible with this activity.

Beach Forecast . A low risk of rip currents is forecast at all South Florida beaches through the weekend.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 93 77 92 77 / 60 40 60 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 92 79 / 50 30 60 20 Miami 93 79 93 78 / 50 30 50 20 Naples 91 78 90 78 / 40 40 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 10 mi74 min W 8 G 9.9 84°F 1015.5 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 10 mi50 min WNW 12 G 14 86°F 89°F1015.8 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 17 mi83 min NNW 8 88°F 1016 hPa78°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 26 mi50 min Calm G 0 88°F 89°F1014.8 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 49 mi68 min 88°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL9 mi75 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F79°F75%1014.6 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL18 mi75 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds92°F75°F60%1014.3 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL21 mi75 minWNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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W11W11NW10W10NW7NW8NW7NW7NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6W55W7

Tide / Current Tables for Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.10.40.910.90.60.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.10.30.60.60.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.