Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 1:14 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 1031 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and south 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1031 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - South to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead of a frontal boundary, with showers and Thunderstorms developing and spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and Thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS62 KTBW 151124 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 724 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Thunderstorms moving off the Gulf will affect KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and possibly KSRQ over the next few hours, with MVFR or briefly lower restrictions. Storms will slowly spread southward through the rest of the day, eventually reaching the other TAF sites with similar restrictions. Outside of convection, winds will generally remain southwesterly with gusts up to 25 knots or so, but thunderstorms could contain much stronger gusts.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Looks like today will be the last really active weather day this week as a weak cool front moves south into north Florida with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing in the moist southwesterly flow ahead of it. A few of these storms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat, but some hail and an isolated tornado/waterspout cannot be ruled out. The area with the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread south during the day starting out over the Nature Coast this morning then moving south to the Interstate 4 corridor around midday and finally reaching southwest Florida toward evening.

The front will drift south into the forecast area tonight, but slow down and eventually stall across the southern part of the region. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue along and south of the boundary into Thursday. North of the boundary some drier air will move in with partly to mostly sunny skies.

On Friday the boundary will begin to lift back north as the next storm system moves out of the south central U.S. and across the eastern states over the weekend. South to southwest flow will return with moisture also returning as the cool front associated with the storm system approaches the region over the weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the weekend with the highest rain chances Saturday across the Nature Coast, and then south of Interstate 4 on Sunday.

The cool front will move through the area late Sunday and Sunday night with drier air returning for early next week as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

MARINE
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Breezy south to southwest winds ahead of a weak cool front will continue today with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading southward during the day. The front will drift south into the eastern gulf waters tonight with winds shifting to west to northwest through Thursday. This boundary will lift back north late in the week with south to southwest winds returning through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds with breezy southwesterly winds around 15 mph with higher gusts today leading to rather high dispersion values. West to northwest winds will setup on Thursday, but remain less than 15 mph.
Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 76 88 75 / 90 20 10 0 FMY 91 78 91 76 / 50 40 30 0 GIF 89 73 92 70 / 80 20 10 0 SRQ 88 76 89 73 / 80 40 10 0 BKV 87 67 90 65 / 90 10 10 0 SPG 86 78 87 78 / 90 30 10 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Little Hickory Island, Estero Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:03 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:33 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.09 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:37 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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