Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:01 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N ne in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - N ne winds 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - NEarshore, nw winds around 5 kt becoming ne 5 kt late in the evening. Offshore, ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E in the morning. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - NEarshore, E ne winds 5 kt becoming se around 5 kt in the morning. Winds W sw in the afternoon. Offshore, E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se in the morning. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

GMZ600 334 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails through tonight, becoming light and variable early next week. A light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday afternoon and continues through Wednesday night.

FXUS62 KTBW 181202 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 802 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Very warm and humid conditions today with deep S-SW flow bringing high dew point airmass over the FL Peninsula as the Gulf seabreeze develops early and moves well inland by the afternoon with very low rain chances in coastal zones from the Tampa Bay area through SW FL. Another MCS is moving through the N Gulf and FL Panhandle this morning that is expected to weaken but move into N FL Peninsula later this afternoon with some strong to severe storms possible mainly over the Nature Coast. Will monitor radar trends through the day to access convective timing and strength potential.

Persistent long period swells continue to be generated by strong S-SE winds through the Yucatan Channel that are moving thru the Gulf then ashore local area beaches producing 2-3 ft breaking waves and potentially dangerous rip currents especially at SW facing beaches today and a rip current statement has been issued for these conditions.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected to continue today and tonight with gusty SW winds by 14Z through the afternoon pushing isolated seabreeze SHRA/TSRA well inland.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the southeast. Ahead of it a shortwave is expected to once again push through the Panhandle and head west. The big difference from yesterday morning storms is the line looks to be a little more south but still should stay north of I-4. Timing looks to also be a little later focusing more on the early afternoon hours with severe weather possible. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the interior in the mid to upper 90's with head index in the low to mid 100's.

The actually front looks to start pushing through the area Sunday morning with more widespread showers possible throughout much of the area during the morning and afternoon hours. We will once again be looking at an isolate severe weather threat as the front pushes through.

Troughing will remain over the area for Monday and Tuesday mainly resulting in seabreeze storms in the interior during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Ridging looks to return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in more subsidence and keeping us dry but hot across the area.

MARINE
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Cold front will be heading our way this weekend mainly bringing showers to the area on Sunday. Drier air will filter in behind the front giving some possible critical RHs on Monday in the interior south of I-4.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 86 75 / 30 40 70 20 FMY 93 78 90 76 / 10 30 50 30 GIF 94 75 88 72 / 30 40 70 20 SRQ 90 77 86 74 / 10 40 60 30 BKV 93 73 86 68 / 40 50 70 10 SPG 89 78 84 77 / 20 40 70 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Little Hickory Island
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Little Hickory Island, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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