Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montura, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Mid level ridging will gradually continue to weaken over the region through today and Thursday with the ridge axis remaining over the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the surface, South Florida will continue to remain on the southwestern periphery of a large area of high pressure located in the western Atlantic. This will help to keep plenty of subsidence in place especially today and keep the region mainly dry during this time frame.

While this feature will also promote easterly wind flow today and Thursday, the pressure gradient across the region will be tightening heading into Thursday as a very weak inverted surface trough passes through the region along the periphery of the high. This uptick in easterly wind flow combined with the weak surface trough will help to increase lower level moisture on Thursday. The latest model forecast soundings and ensemble guidance show PWAT values increasing and ranging between 1.1 and 1.4 inches along and south of Alligator Alley by Thursday afternoon. While the latest guidance remains in good agreement keeping the bulk of the moisture advection off to the south and east, this uptick will be enough to support the return of isolated shower activity mainly across the Atlantic waters as well as the the southeastern portion of the region later on Thursday.
Plenty of dry air will remain in place across the mid to upper levels which will be the limiting factor in shower development during this time frame. Any shower that does develop will be low topped and rather short lived on Thursday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend the weather pattern across South Florida remains very similar featuring mostly dry conditions during this time frame. The mid level flow splits off as a weakening northern stream trough passes through the Southeast and into the western Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, the main synoptic feature will be the large area of high pressure over the western Atlantic holding strong across the region keeping any fronts well off to the north. This will allow for a general easterly wind flow to prevail through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend, however, the pressure gradient will gradually weaken across South Florida over the upcoming weekend.
This will allow for these easterly winds to subside during this time frame. There will be just enough lower level moisture to support the possibility of an isolated shower or two from time to time along the breeze, however, any shower activity will be low topped and short lived due to plenty of subsidence and dry air aloft. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will generally range from the lower 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into early next week, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite tries to hint at the possibility of a bit of a moisture surge as a weakening frontal boundary tries to push into the region from the north. The uncertainty in this portion of the forecast remains high as guidance remains in disagreement with how far south the front actually pushes as it will be in a weakening state as it approaches. Depending on how far south this front actually pushes, this may help to increase the shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of the region during this time frame. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers heading into Monday and Tuesday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Occasional BKN ceilings in the 3,500-5,000 ft range will be rather brief in duration and could occur at any time along the MIA-FLL-PBI corridor, and primarily from 18z-00z at KAPF. Winds 090-100 degrees gusting to around 20 knots between 14z-00z, except a SW seabreeze at KAPF 18z-01z.

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

In general, a moderate easterly breeze will remain in place across the local waters through the end of the week. These winds could become fresh at times especially heading into Thursday and Friday across the Atlantic waters. Across the Gulf waters, winds may become west northwest each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 4 feet through the end of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

BEACHES
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

With onshore flow gradually increasing, a high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 85 72 84 73 / 0 0 20 10 West Kendall 86 68 86 70 / 0 0 20 10 Opa-Locka 84 71 84 72 / 0 0 20 10 Homestead 83 71 84 72 / 0 0 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 20 10 Pembroke Pines 83 72 84 73 / 0 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 84 70 83 70 / 0 0 10 10 Boca Raton 83 71 81 71 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 86 66 89 67 / 0 0 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.