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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 401 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tue..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Wed..N nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt becoming ne in the evening. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Thu night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Fri and Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Sat..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..
mariners can expect winds gradually transitioning out of the west/northwest through today, and generally maintaining this direction through the first half of the week. Outside of isolated showers, conditions at sea will be relatively calm and characterized by gentle to moderate winds today. Winds and waves could increase during the middle portion of the work-week behind the next cold front, ushering in potentially hazardous marine conditions.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 12 utc...
33 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 042317 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 617 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

With the continued advection of the mid-level trough across the northeastern United States, synoptic forcing will allow for the surface low associated with the frontal boundary to advect into the western Atlantic waters and the frontal boundary to sweep southward across the Florida Peninsula. While moisture remains meager with the frontal boundary, a few isolated showers along the boundary cannot be ruled out given that the frontal passage is currently forecast after peak diurnal heating with warm temperatures and ample low level moisture. High temperatures will remain several degrees above average with forecast temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. These forecast high temperatures could once again come close to tie-ing or break climatological records for the date (88F at MIA, 88F at FLL, 89 at PBI). These values remain quite toasty for an early December day in South Florida and are a direct result of westerly flow and plentiful warm air advection across the region. Winds behind the frontal passage will swing to a northwesterly direction with a drier continental airmass beginning to filter into the region.

This will usher in a period of cooler weather beginning on Tuesday.
The limited fetch behind the first front will lead to a reduction in maximum temperatures by a few degrees, but a more notable drop in dewpoints - into the mid-50s/lower 60s. This, coupled with near zero rainfall chances across much of the region, should yield a quiescent and temperate day overall, with little to no weather impacts of concern during this period. Temperatures will be reduced compared to prior days, with maximum temperatures reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s across much of the region. A second frontal boundary will approach the region which will provide an additional injection of dry air and cold air advection across the region into the extended period.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The secondary frontal boundary, as mentioned above will push through South Florida on Wednesday. With little to no moisture to work with, dry conditions will remain in place as the front moves through. The main story with this front will be stronger cold air advection that takes place behind the front on Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures on Thursday morning could drop into the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the mid to upper 40s across the rest of Southwest Florida. With a breezy northwesterly wind flow in place, wind chill values will feel even colder and could drop into the mid 30s across some interior sections west of the Lake. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s across the east coast metro areas during this time frame.

As the strong area of high pressure centered off to the north pushes eastward on Thursday and Friday, a moderating trend in temperatures will take place as winds veer and become northeasterly on Thursday, and then east southeasterly on Friday. This will allow for high temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 70s on Thursday, and then into the mid to upper 70s on Friday. The dry air mass will remain in place during this time frame, however, as moisture advection starts taking place on Friday, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out mainly along the immediate east coast.

The weather pattern will begin to change over the weekend as a mid level ridge pushes into the western Atlantic and a deepening trough moves through the Central Plains and towards the eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a strengthening area of low pressure will push into the Midwest and Great Lakes region as the weekend progresses. A trailing cold front from this system will push across the Eastern Seaboard and into the Florida Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday. Out ahead of the front, southeasterly winds on Saturday will continue to veer and become south southwesterly on Sunday.

Uncertainty rises during this part of the forecast as it is towards the end of the forecast period and guidance remains in disagreement in regard to timing and strength of the front as it pushes through. As moisture increases out ahead of the front, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase especially on Sunday as the front pushes closer to the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will continue to moderate as they will rise into the lower 80s across most areas.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. Winds will generally remain northerly to north-northwesterly through the period although lighter wind flow overnight could allow for some directional variability, particularly away from the coast.

MARINE
Issued at 1208 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

As a frontal boundary approaches the region today, there's a possibility of isolated showers occurring over the local waters, with the greatest chances over the Gulf waters. A north/northwesterly wind shift will develop in the wake of this cold front, with another stronger cold front moving through the region by Wednesday. Most of this week remains dry, with cautionary conditions being possible with the front moving through the region in the middle of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 70 82 61 74 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 67 83 58 73 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 83 60 73 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 59 74 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 82 60 73 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 68 82 60 73 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 67 82 59 73 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 65 81 57 71 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 67 82 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 63 79 59 72 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Mon -- 01:23 AM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:52 AM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Chokoloskee
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chokoloskee, Florida, Tide feet

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