Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 1:46 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 401 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Winds will shift to west and then northwest through today as the weak frontal boundary settles across the southern waters. Winds will then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north on Friday, with increasing showers and Thunderstorms chances for the weekend as the next storm system moves across the eastern u.s.

FXUS62 KTBW 160820 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The weak cool front will settle across the southern portions of the area today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible south of it across the southern interior and southwest Florida. West to northwest winds will bring some drier air into the inland portions of the Nature Coast south into central parts of the Florida peninsula with mostly sunny skies returning to these areas by afternoon. Tonight the boundary begins to lift back north as the next storm system develops over the south central states. The boundary moves back north of the area Friday with winds shifting back to south to southwest and moisture spreading back across the area. Hi-res models are indicating that a weakening MCS will move across the northern gulf coast and into the Nature Coast Friday morning, basically along the frontal boundary and have included a slight chance of precipitation at this time in this area.
Otherwise, we could see a few sprinkles as the boundary lifts north. The south to southwest flow behind the boundary will drive the west coast sea breeze well inland on Friday with an isolated shower possible over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. For Saturday the storm system will move into the eastern U.S. with south to southwest flow persisting across the region.
Enough moisture will be in place for a few showers and thunderstorms, but the flow will once again favor the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain chances. Saturday night into Sunday the cool front associated with the storm system will move into north Florida with moist southwest flow across the area. This will lead to increasing rain chances for the northern waters and Nature Coast Saturday night into Sunday with chances diminishing as you move further south. The boundary is expected to drift slowly south into the central peninsula Sunday night and then reach south Florida Monday night.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of this boundary during this time, while behind it northwesterly flow will bring drier air back into the area for early next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected this morning across the TAF sites, and could see a few showers affect the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY and RSW. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites this afternoon. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots will increase to around 10 knots with some higher gusts by this afternoon, then diminish and become light and variable this evening.

MARINE
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Winds will shift to west and then northwest through today as the weak frontal boundary settles across the southern waters. Winds will then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north on Friday, with increasing showers and thunderstorms chances for the weekend as the next storm system moves across the eastern U.S.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over the central interior this afternoon, otherwise relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. No Red Flag conditions are expected though as winds and ERCs remain below thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 91 79 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 10 0 GIF 92 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 SRQ 88 75 91 77 / 30 10 10 0 BKV 90 65 93 71 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 88 78 89 81 / 10 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Coconut Point, Estero Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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