Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 528 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds and north 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 528 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - A frontal boundary slowly moving across the E gulf today will bring scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by mid week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FXUS62 KTBW 190928 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 528 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Deep layer W-SW flow over the peninsula this morning south of a trough aloft extending from the Mid-Atlantic SW to the N Gulf Coast and an attendant frontal boundary draped across the SE U.S.
into the FL panhandle. The trough will very slowly progress E into the Atlantic over the next few days, with the surface frontal boundary working its way south across the peninsula today and Monday before clearing the state to the south on Tuesday. Ridging aloft builds over the area around mid week with surface ridging building along the E Seaboard before a few shortwaves push E across the TN/OH Valley regions late week and over the weekend, eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens slightly and shifts a bit E into the Atlantic.

For today expect an increase in showers and storms with the front pushing across the area, initially across Nature Coast locations this morning before spreading into central and eventually southern areas late morning through afternoon. Given the persistent W-SW flow expect greatest concentration of convection over the interior and E FL, however a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across W FL as moderate-strong instability this afternoon coupled with sufficient shear will be supportive of stronger convection ahead of the boundary. SPC has highlighted the all of the CWA under a Marginal Risk with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats, with a Slight Risk over the interior covering parts of eastern Polk and Highlands counties for an increased risk of large hail. Activity should gradually wind down this evening as the front continues south, however with moisture lingering over the area and slow progression of the trough aloft PoPs will remain in the 30-40 percent range through Mon-Tue, with highest chances over the interior during the afternoons. The remainder of the week will feature PoPs around 20 percent or less as drier conditions will be likely with ridging over the area. Temps also warm during the latter half of the week as well, into the low-mid 90s for areas away from the immediate coast, after having been in the upper 80s-lower 90s today through Tuesday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mainly VFR through the remainder of the overnight period although brief restrictions due to low cigs will be possible as moisture increases over the peninsula in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. Primary period of impacts to terminals expected after sunrise with increased likelihood of MVFR cigs followed by VCSH/TS late morning into afternoon with associated periods of MVFR or brief IFR as convection affects terminals. Confidence lower for southern terminals, however an overall improving trend expected by late afternoon into early evening from north to south with any lingering sub-VFR conditions diminishing. Winds generally SW-W through most of the period before slight shift to W-NW over the latter part of the period, increasing to 8-12 knots with higher gusts during the afternoon then diminishing to around 10 knots or less during the evening.

MARINE
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A frontal boundary slowly moving across the E Gulf today will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by mid week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A front will move over the state with showers and thunderstorms for most areas today, followed by lingering rain chances on Monday and Tuesday mainly focused toward interior locations during the afternoons. High pressure and drier air will filter into the area mid to late week with warming temps.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 76 89 73 / 60 20 20 10 FMY 91 76 90 73 / 60 50 40 20 GIF 89 72 90 70 / 60 30 40 10 SRQ 89 75 89 72 / 60 30 20 10 BKV 88 69 89 65 / 50 20 30 10 SPG 86 78 88 76 / 60 20 20 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island
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Sun -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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