Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Punta Rassa, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Today is looking pretty similar to yesterday as the low level flow remains out of the east to southeast with precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.6 inches. Overall low level flow is light enough that the west coast sea breeze should move inland to around or east of the I-75 corridor and this combined with daytime heating and enough moisture will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Overall forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots this morning.
Expect the bay/sea breezes to develop and move inland this afternoon shifting winds to westerly at TPA, PIE, and SRQ, and possibly reaching the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. The overall east to southeast flow will return later this evening at 3 to 6 knots. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Not much change to the overall forecast reasoning. Relatively stagnant pattern through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend as surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula for the next several days. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each afternoon with the east/southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Highest pops will be about 20 to 40 miles inland each day through the weekend, which will be the location of the west coast sea breeze boundary during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail.

TUTT cell off the Florida east coast will be quasi-stationary today and Friday. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability. The TUTT will exit over the weekend allowing an U/L ridge to build over the forecast area thus increasing large scale subsidence over the Florida peninsula.
Scattered to numerous afternoon showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary over the weekend as the increased subsidence will likely be offset by slightly warmer temps/increased low level instability.

Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida through the period with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher.

MARINE
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours causing locally strong winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 76 92 78 / 20 20 30 20 FMY 92 75 93 76 / 50 30 50 10 GIF 92 74 93 75 / 40 30 30 20 SRQ 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 20 20 BKV 94 72 94 72 / 20 20 30 20 SPG 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 20 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.