Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Punta Rassa, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 150713 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 213 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025 Split flow U/L pattern over the CONUS with southern stream flow extending from off Baja California to the southern Plains and across the southern tier of the U.S. including the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Northern stream S/W will dig over the mid Mississippi Valley today and will aid in advecting mid/upper cloud cover, currently across the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida peninsula today and tonight. However, airmass over the forecast area remains very dry, and no rain is expected as the U/L energy from the S/W moves across the region late tonight and on Thursday.

High pressure will build back over the region on Friday, with drier air advecting across the area, however temperatures will be a bit warmer returning back to around climatological normals.

High amplitude U/L pattern will develop over the CONUS during the weekend with a deep U/L trough carving out down the plains, with a component of the southern stream flow persisting and merging with the northern stream over the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico. An associated strong cold front will approach the northern forecast area late in the day on Saturday with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms spreading over the nature coast.
The band of showers/possible thunderstorms will push southeast down the peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. The U/L support will be lifting north of the area as the line pushes south...with a decreasing threat of thunderstorms with time.

Canadian high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front with much colder drier air advecting across the region early next week. Potential for low temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing for portions of the nature coast, with the best chance Monday night. Could see some wind chill issues as well. Will continue to monitor how this event evolves over the next several days.
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