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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
winds will become southerly tonight and shift to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front and an organized line of showers and Thunderstorms that is expected to move across the gulf waters by the late afternoon and evening hours. The southwest winds ahead of the frontal boundary will increase throughout the day with winds approaching exercise cautionary levels at times outside of any convection, but stronger winds and locally hazardous seas are expected in the vicinity of the line of storms that will move through. The showers and Thunderstorms will end by Sunday night and early Monday morning as the front pushes south of the area, but strong northerly winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the frontal boundary with small craft advisory headlines likely needed. Winds then gradually shift northeasterly into early next week with winds expected to reach exercise caution levels but small craft advisory levels may also be reached, especially in offshore marine zones.

FXUS62 KTBW 092355 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 655 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

UPDATE
Early evening METAR observations from around west central and southwest Florida are showing southerly and southeasterly winds that are increasing low level moisture in the forecast area. While higher surface dew points should increase the risk of fog developing overnight, wind speeds are forecast to be a bit too fast to mention fog in the forecast, although a few patches of fog in sheltered areas cannot be completely ruled out.

Otherwise, the main forecast concern remains with the QLCS thunderstorms that are expected Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead of the next cold front. With modest helicity and bulk shear in the environment ahead of the front, the main concern will be for a few isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Overall, the forecast looks on track, and no significant changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Generally VFR conditions are expected to hold through Sunday morning. The possible exception will be a chance for some patchy fog, but wind speeds look to be a bit to fast for significant fog development. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will move southeast into the Tampa Bay area terminals by around 21z Sunday, then into the southwest Florida area terminals by around 00z, with periods of reduced flight categories and gusty winds expected as storms pass through.

MARINE
Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue tonight and through Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind speeds expected to remain less than 15 knots. There is a small chance for some sea fog to develop around the Tampa Bay and north along the Nature Coast early Sunday morning along the southerly flow, but dew points temperatures are forecast to be a bit too low to include sea fog in the forecast at this time. A line of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front and move southeast through the waters Sunday afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds and isolated waterspouts possible with the strongest storms. Winds and seas will then increase to Small Craft Advisory levels behind the front Sunday night and Monday as winds turn to northwesterly and then northeasterly by Monday night. Winds and seas will subside slightly late Monday, but will remain near Small Craft Advisory levels through the rest of the week.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 79 51 64 / 0 50 60 0 FMY 65 82 59 70 / 0 20 40 0 GIF 63 82 50 64 / 0 30 60 0 SRQ 64 80 52 67 / 0 50 50 0 BKV 62 81 44 63 / 10 60 60 0 SPG 67 76 54 62 / 0 50 60 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Captiva Island
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Sat -- 03:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:04 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:24 PM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Captiva Island, Pine Island Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 02:30 AM EST     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:13 PM EST     -0.21 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM EST     0.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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