Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Ridge, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The overall synoptic pattern is not expected to change much today with ensembles and global models depicting a high pressure ridge establishing at the upper lvls over the area, while a mid-lvl ridge remains anchored over the Gulf coast states and reaching into Florida. Meanwhile, the sfc analyses show prevailing weak high pressure over the Gulf region and the peninsula. while a sfc frontal boundary remains stretched across the E/SE CONUS. Plenty of associated weather will be affecting most of the east coast states, with abundant moisture lingering over the region. Some of that moisture will stretch into the northern half of the peninsula.

As it was the case on Monday, convective instability will persist today. Afternoon sea breezes and outflow boundaries will become focal points for the deeper convection during peak heat hours. This will also be assisted by the prevailing weak westerly to southwesterly flow dominating the area. Deep tropical moisture remains streaming across SoFlo, with the Lake region having the best chances for strong storms.

00Z MFL sounding and model data depict PWATs in the 2.1-2.4" range, along with relatively high CAPE values 2K-3K J/Kg, and relatively modest DCAPE (less than 700-800 J/kg). Overall, support for deep convection will be less than previous days, but still enough for a few strong cells to develop from the late morning to the early afternoon hours. The aforementioned weak synoptic flow will keep the threat for localized flooding in place, especially with very slow- moving thunderstorms. Other hazards include damaging gusty winds, lightning strikes and large hail.

For Wednesday, a noticeable departure from the ongoing weather pattern will begin with ensemble and global model solutions depicting the onset of a drying trend. This is in part to the arrival of patches of Saharan dust, which will bring increasing stability and a stronger mid-lvl cap. Therefore, expect a significant drop in POPs/Wx coverage Wednesday afternoon with max POPs down to the 20-30%.

High temps will again reach the low 90s in general despite of the rain/thunderstorm coverage today. This is due to having enough time during the morning and early afternoon hours for sufficient daytime heating to occur. Morning lows will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s near the coasts and low to mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday, favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday, favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.
Outside of convection, westerly winds around 10 kts today with SCT MVFR ceilings.

MARINE
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Gentle to moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next few days across the coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 92 78 94 79 / 50 10 20 0 West Kendall 92 75 94 75 / 50 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 78 95 78 / 50 10 20 0 Homestead 92 78 93 78 / 50 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 94 79 / 50 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 94 79 / 50 10 30 0 Pembroke Pines 93 80 96 80 / 50 10 20 0 West Palm Beach 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 40 0 Boca Raton 92 78 93 78 / 50 10 30 0 Naples 90 80 91 81 / 60 30 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.