Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 13, 2020 12:59 PM EDT (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:37AMMoonset 2:30PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 944 Am Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Rest of today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Monday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 944 Am Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure across the atlantic waters is maintaining light easterly to southeasterly surface flow and generally favorable marine conditions. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible across the atlantic waters during the overnight and morning hours, transitioning to the gulf waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The primary impacts with any storms will be locally gusty winds, cloud to surface lightning, and brief reductions to visibility during heavy downpours. Isolated waterspouts will also be possible, primarily during the morning hours.
Gulf stream hazards..Locally higher winds and waves in and around showers and Thunderstorms. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 13, 2020 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Ridge, FL
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location: 26.54, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 131441 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1041 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Update.

Quick-moving showers originating from low-level easterly convergent flow are firing along the Atlantic metro region. Most of these showers are innocuous, however the potential for lightning will increase as instability increases from the late morning into the early afternoon. Convective activity should decrease along the Atlantic metro region in the afternoon, as boundaries traverse towards the interior/Gulf Coast associated with weak easterly flow.

The 12Z MFL sounding indicates that a prevalence of boundary layer moisture is intact (evident in the 1000-925 hPa layer) associated with a maritime tropical airmass being advected from the Atlantic waters. Furthermore, a dry slot is evident on low-level sampling water vapor imagery. This is further evidenced by a dewpoint depression of 17C at 750 hPa in the 12Z sounding. Consequently, lapse rates are slightly steeper within this region, and may contribute to higher parcel accelerations. High ML CAPE values of roughly 2500 J/Kg (owing to the prevalence of boundary layer moisture) as well as modest mid-level lapse rates indicates that stronger storms could develop. The highest threat associated with any stronger storms would be damaging wind gusts where pulse-type storms congeal into multicell clusters. The Atlantic metro should remain free of any convective threat, as the main threat area for an isolated damaging wind gust is the interior/Gulf Coast region.

Prev Discussion. /issued 804 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020/

Aviation (12Z TAFs) .

VFR conditions should persist through the period. IFR/MVFR conditions may be present near the east coast sites associated with any quick moving convection, especially along the Atlantic coastline from late morning to early afternoon. Convective coverage should become focused more over the interior/Gulf Coast into the afternoon and evening, and TEMPO groups may be required for KAPF. Winds will be generally ESE, except at Gulf Coast terminals, as winds will transition from SW to ESE

Prev Discussion . /issued 406 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020/

Short Term (Today through Friday) . A deep-layer ridge axis emanating from subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic remains situated across central Florida, leading to light easterly to southeasterly deep-layer flow across South Florida. This typical summertime flow pattern continues to maintain rich boundary-layer moisture (lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios near 17 g/kg), allowing for the development of nocturnal convection across the Atlantic waters each night, where lingering maritime instability exists. Similar to previous days, these showers and storms could once again move ashore across the east coast metros during the morning hours, bringing local reductions to visibility in brief heavy downpours.

As daytime heating commences, an Atlantic sea breeze should develop and move inland, providing enough low-level convergence to initiate convection across the western suburbs of the east coast metros by the early afternoon hours. With the light ESE deep-layer flow in place, anticipate convection to generally propagate/advect towards the WNW, becoming scattered in coverage across the interior and western portions of South Florida. A Gulf breeze is also forecast to develop during the afternoon hours, which should also initiate convection along the immediate Gulf Coast during the later afternoon hours. The primary expected hazards with the strongest convection will be locally strong convective wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph (aided by dry mid-level air and precipitation-loading processes), frequent cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy downpours which could lead to isolated urban/street flooding across vulnerable low-lying areas (particularly across the Gulf Coast).

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s across most of South Florida, while overnight lows will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index readings will generally be in the 100 to 105 range, with the exception of inland southwest Florida, where 105 to 109 will be common readings for a brief period of time.

The synoptic pattern will be similar on Friday, with Atlantic high pressure in control of the region. Light easterly to southeasterly deep-layer flow will favor the development of both Atlantic and Gulf breezes, which will be the primary drivers of convection focused across the interior and western portions of South Florida.

Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday) . A warm, unsettled pattern continues through the extended. A trough will disrupt the mid and upper level high pressure which will keep only the influence of the surface high over the Atlantic around the region. A light easterly to southeasterly flow will persist late Friday into Saturday across the region with sea breezes expected to form again on Saturday afternoon. The easterly flow component will favor the Atlantic sea breeze but the light nature of that flow should allow the Gulf sea breeze to advance inland as well towards the State Road 29 corridor at least. Boundary collisions combined with the support aloft from the mid- level trough near the region should allow for thunderstorms to favor the interior and Gulf coast again on Saturday.

Sunday is a transition day as the ridge axis shifts allowing the wind flow to turn more southerly. This will favor higher convective coverage over northern portions of the forecast area including the Lake Okeechobee region. The southerly flow will permit the moist airmass over the region to also potentially produce training cells which could cause some concern for minor localized flooding if an area were to become saturated. As the ridge continues to shift, the surface flow will become southwesterly shifting the afternoon convective focus towards the northeastern portions of South Florida, including Palm Beach County, early next week. The Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned likely just west of the east coast metro areas.

As the extended period comes to a close, the mid-level trough will build well into the Gulf and potentially lead to a surface signal developing which could lead to some climbing rain chances to close out the seven-day forecast period. There is some uncertainty with this but it will be worth watching particularly if the antecedent rainfall provides for some aspect of saturated soils over portions of the region. Temperatures will continue to be warm through much of the period though some additional cloud cover with periods of higher moisture and unsettled weather could provide a few degrees of relief.

Marine . High pressure situated across the western Atlantic waters is maintaining light easterly to southeasterly surface flow and generally favorable marine conditions. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected across the Atlantic waters during the overnight and morning hours, transitioning to the Gulf waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The primary impacts with any storms will be locally gusty winds, cloud to water lightning, and brief reductions to visibility during heavy downpours. Isolated waterspouts will also be possible, primarily across the Atlantic coastal waters during the morning hours.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 91 78 92 78 / 30 30 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 90 80 / 30 30 40 10 Miami 91 80 91 79 / 30 30 40 10 Naples 94 76 92 77 / 50 30 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 09/Bhatti Marine . 18/Weinman Aviation . 09/Bhatti Fire Weather . 18/Weinman Short Term . 18/Weinman Long Term . 02/RAG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 5 mi60 min ESE 8.9 G 11 85°F 87°F1017.1 hPa (+0.3)
PEGF1 32 mi60 min 87°F 1017.8 hPa (+0.6)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 56 mi60 min E 6 G 8.9 87°F 91°F1018.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL10 mi67 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F77°F68%1017.9 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL11 mi67 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F77°F63%1017.9 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL20 mi67 minESE 910.00 miA Few Clouds0°F0°F%1017.8 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL24 mi67 minESE 1010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity91°F75°F61%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE7E8E9SE8E9SE7E4SE4SE4SE5SE6SE6CalmNW5CalmN3N3CalmCalmSE8SE10SE10SE9
2 days agoE9NE12E12E13NE11E9E8E7E7E6E6E7E6CalmCalmW3NW3NW4NW3N4N3CalmE3SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Boynton Beach, Lake Worth, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for South Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida
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South Delray Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.41.722.22.221.61.20.80.50.40.50.81.31.72.12.32.32.11.81.41.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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