Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday February 20, 2020 9:33 PM EST (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:59AMMoonset 3:45PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 327 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet after midnight. Period 3 seconds increasing to 8 seconds after midnight. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet building to 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet in the afternoon. Period 8 seconds. North swell 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas to 18 feet. Period 9 seconds. North swell 3 to 7 feet increasing to 4 to 9 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas to 18 feet. Period 10 seconds. North swell 4 to 9 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet subsiding to 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet after midnight. North northeast swell 3 to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. North northeast swell 3 to 5 feet becoming northeast 3 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Northeast swell 3 feet in the evening. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 327 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the south florida waters early Friday, moving south of the peninsula by Friday afternoon. Strong and gusty north wind and building seas behind the front on Friday, reaching gale force over the atlantic waters. Strong and gusty north to northeast wind continue Friday night and Saturday as high pressure moves over the southeast u.s. And adjacent western atlantic, with periodic showers mainly over the atlantic waters. Wind and seas will start subsiding on Sunday as the high pressure weakens and moves farther out into the atlantic, and turn southeast and south early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 8 to 12 feet late Friday and Friday night with gale force gusts. Seas 9 to 13 feet Saturday and Saturday night, then subside on Sunday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 20, 2020 at 1200 utc... 8 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Ridge, FL
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location: 26.54, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 210029 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 729 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Aviation (00z TAFs). A few SHRA in MIA/FLL area should dissipate or move offshore by 02z. Somewhat complicated and uncertain forecast with regards to ceilings associated with approaching cold front late tonight and early Friday morning. MVFR conditions expected at KAPF after 09z and at east coast sites after 14z, but realistic chance of IFR conditions during these time frames. Wind SW-W until frontal passage, then N wind increasing after fropa with gusts to 25 knots.

Update. A few showers in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area moving NE and should weaken or move offshore before 10 PM. Although not mentioned in the forecast due to low confidence, some patchy fog is not out of the question late tonight as the cold front approaches the southern FL peninsula. Introduced rain chances a little earlier Friday morning as the pre-frontal trough moves across Lake Okeechobee and the Naples area between 5-7 AM and east coast between 7-10 AM, followed a couple of hours later by the front itself. The passage of the cold front on Friday will be followed by strong/gusty north wind, falling temperatures, and cloudy skies.

Prev Discussion. /issued 313 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Short Term .

Tonight through Friday Night .

Weak, pesky showers continue to plague South Florida this afternoon. Flow has notably become more southerly through the morning, which will keep a warm, tropical airmass in place through the rest of the day. Coverage should begin to refocus over the eastern half of the peninsula this evening as low-level flow continues veering southwesterly. Overnight, temperatures will once again be balmy in the 60s across the area to near 70 along the east coast.

The winds tonight will be light from the southwest to west direction ahead of the cold front. This will allow for some low level moisture to work into South Florida tonight from the Gulf of Mexico. A few of the short range models are showing fog formation over the interior/west coast metro areas late tonight. However, at this time it looks like more low ceiling conditions than fog formation over the region. So will not had fog at this time to the forecast for tonight, but will continue to monitor the latest short range models on the fog development.

Tomorrow, a cold front is progged to push through the area. As the boundary marches southward through late afternoon, coverage of showers should increase to more scattered, especially along the Atlantic coast of South Florida. While convection should remain shallow, height falls in the mid to upper levels as a result of weakening in ridging aloft, an isolated clap of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Behind the boundary, winds will further veer out of north then northwest through the day. As the boundary clears, the pressure gradient should rapidly tighten from north to south across the region, leading to wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the coastal interfaces of South Florida. Additionally, this will result in hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic (see Marine section below). Considerable cloudiness tomorrow will work in concert with the cool/dry air advection behind the front to keep temperatures more seasonable on Friday. Daytime maxima will only climb into the low to mid 70s and dip into upper 40 to mid 50s across the interior and low 60s along the east coast metro.

Long Term . High pressure will build into the Southeastern United States for this weekend behind the passage of the cold front late this week. This will keep the the tight pressure gradient ongoing over South Florida this weekend leading to breezy to windy northeast winds. There could also be some fast moving showers working into the east coast metro areas from the Atlantic waters especially on Saturday.

The high will weaken some while moving east into the Western Atlantic waters early next week allowing for the pressure gradient to relax over South Florida. This in turn will allow for the winds to become more southeast over the region bringing in some low level moisture to the area leading to a few showers.

Another cold front is forecast by the long range models to move southward and through South Florida middle of next week bringing scattered showers. There could also be a thunderstorm or two over the east coast metro areas in the afternoon hours on Wednesday, but at this time the coverage will be few and far between to mention it in the forecast at this time.

Dry and cooler weather is then forecast to work into South Florida late next week behind the passage of the cold front.

Marine . A cold front is forecast to push across the local waters Friday. Behind the frontal passage, winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots across all South Florida waters with gusts up to 40 knots over the Atlantic. Therefore, a Gale Warning has been hoisted for the Atlantic waters beginning at 7AM, along with Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf and Lake Okeechobee. The only exception is the Biscayne Bay, where the Small Craft Advisory begins at 1 PM.

Seas will also be building through Friday and get up to with 12 to 14 feet over the Atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday before slowly decreasing late this weekend into early next week. The Gulf seas will also quickly build to 5 to 7 feet Friday night decreasing slowly through the weekend. Therefore, it looks like hazards marine conditions will continue over the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend.

Aviation (18z TAFs) . Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue with brief bouts of MVFR possible with vicinity and passing SHRA. Southerly flow will gradually veer out of the northwest through the TAF period as a cold front crosses the area. Lowering vis and cigs possible late morning as the front approaches with SHRA increasing by the afternoon.

Beach Forecast . Increasing swell and building northeasterly winds will create a high risk of rip currents for much of the weekend along with the potential for high surf and beach erosion along the Atlantic beaches. These hazardous beach conditions could linger into early next week as well.

Another concern is the potential for coastal flooding with high tide due to the new moon this weekend. The northeasterly to easterly wind, persistent swell, and high seas will contribute to the potential for higher-than-normal tides which could create minor coastal impacts for at least this weekend. Will continue to monitor the latest forecast models to see if a coastal flood advisory will be needed for some or all of the coastal areas this weekend.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 66 72 57 72 / 20 40 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 69 76 59 73 / 20 20 20 30 Miami 69 77 59 74 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 65 74 50 73 / 20 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ610.

Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ630.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

Update . 59/Molleda Aviation . 59/Molleda


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 5 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 12 78°F 79°F1016.2 hPa
PEGF1 32 mi51 min SSW 7 G 8 1017.2 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 56 mi45 min SSW 9.9 G 12 79°F 80°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL10 mi40 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F70°F74%1017.3 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL11 mi46 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1017.6 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL20 mi40 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast78°F70°F76%1017.6 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL24 mi40 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE6SE5SE4SE5SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE9S8SE11SE13S13S13S11S8S8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Boynton Beach, Lake Worth, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for South Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida
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South Delray Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:15 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:58 PM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.200.51.21.82.22.42.21.81.30.80.40.20.20.61.11.622.22.11.71.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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