LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Midlevel high pressure will remain over Deep South Texas through the period. As a trough in the four corners lifts into the Great Lakes into early next week, the ridge axis will move eastward off the eastern US coast and flatten over our region. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Gulf coast into the SE US. Rain chances will be somewhat limited thanks to the ridging overhead through this weekend, though isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend (generally 20- 30%). As we head in the workweek, this ridge begins to breakdown and a weak coastal trough develops allowing rain to increase slightly (25-45%), with the bulk of the activity remaining along the seabreeze and offshore.

Things get interesting as we head into midweek. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area for potential tropical development in the Northwestern Carribean Sea. Current projected movement is north or northwest over the northwestern Carribean or southern Gulf with a 40% chance of tropical development (medium) in the next 7 days. This entity will be a major driver in the forecast from Wednesday onwards. Will continue to run with the NBM for the middle to end of next week which has the aforementioned trough moving westward and increasing moisture from the Gulf that will increase rain chances (40-60%) for Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the high uncertainty of the development, strength and movement of the disturbance, the forecast is likely to continue to evolve over the coming days.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain near normal with highs in the low to mid 90s. Any rain or thunderstorm activity early in the afternoon, especially as we head into the middle of next week could keep temperatures just below normal for affected areas.
Overnight lows will remain generally in the low to mid 70s. While Heat Advisories are not likely through the period, elevated heat indices on Saturday could warrant a Special Weather Statement.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Light southeast winds with a few passing low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR ceilings may briefly develop at MFE shortly before sunrise, though confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, which could briefly result in MVFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Now through Friday night...Favorable marine conditions persist over the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters through Friday.
Pressure gradient remains weak over the Gulf of Mexico as broad surface high pressure remains centered over the northern Gulf.
Light Southeast wind and slight seas observed over the Lower Texas coastal waters are expected to persist through the period.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...Light to moderate winds and light seas are expected the period with seas of 1 to 2 feet. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms daily, which may result in brief periods of elevated winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 91 77 91 / 10 40 30 20 HARLINGEN 75 92 74 92 / 0 40 30 10 MCALLEN 79 96 77 96 / 0 30 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 76 95 / 10 20 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 82 87 / 20 30 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 89 76 90 / 10 20 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.