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GMZ132 Expires:202312081630;;088182 Fzus54 Kbro 080316 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 916 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-081630- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 916 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming very rough after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Very rough on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 916 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
onshore flow increase through Friday night as low pressure develops and tracks eastward across the plains. A few light showers will be possible tonight into Friday. A strong cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters on Saturday night bringing a chance of showers or Thunderstorms along the front. Strong northerly winds behind the front will likely produce gale conditions for most of the waters through Sunday morning. Building seas up to 10 feet will also occur in the wake of this front. Winds will slowly diminish and seas will slowly subside by Sunday evening as the center of the high pressure area quickly shifts into the northwest gulf. Onshore flow redevelops on Monday as high pressure shifts eastward along with low pressure developing across the southern plains.

FXUS64 KBRO 080435 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1035 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

IR/WV satellite imagery depicts a southern stream shortwave moving through Mexico at this time. This shortwave will move across the CWA tonight and exit the area on Fri morning. A few light sprinkles will be possible tonight associated with this shortwave but too isolated to mention at this time. The main result will be thickening cloud cover and a developing warm air advection profile. The increased S/SE gradient and increased cloud cover will keep overnight lows tonight 5-8 degrees warmer than last night's lows.
This warming trend will persist through the remainder of the short- term period as southerly flow dominates. Widespread 80s are expected on Fri. BUFKIT soundings and boundary layer model progs indicate potential wind gusts of 28-32 kts will be possible across the Lower Valley during the late morning to afternoon hours on Fri. The winds will weaken by the late afternoon as the main LLJ core shifts east of the area. Another mild night with above normal temperatures is expected on Fri night. Lighter winds and less cloud cover should help to promote at least patchy fog to develop across the Northern Ranchlands on Fri night. This was depicted nicely in the latest SREF guidance.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The main story of the long term forecast period will be the strong cold front that will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday night. While this cold front is not expected to bring much in the way of precipitation, a sharp change in temperatures, strong northerly winds, and dry air are the biggest concerns with this front. There is a possibility that Wind Advisories might be needed for Coastal Cameron, Kenedy, and Willacy counties as the both sustained winds and gusts are just under the criteria at the moment for the timeframe of Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The 20-foot winds are expected to be elevated as well during this time and when combined with the dry air that will move into the region behind the front especially in Zapata county where the minimum relative humidity is in the teens, there are concerns for fire weather as well. The minimum relative humidity for the most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley after the front will be under 30 percent. The only exception being right along the coast where the minimum relative humidity will be higher. Once again, with the strong winds expected behind the front, fire weather conditions will need to be monitored throughout the region. How this cold front will affect the temperatures will be discussed later on.

As for the rest of the long term forecast period. A coastal trough is expected to set up along the Lower Texas Coast around Monday night into Tuesday. This coastal trough will have a decent amount of support with both low level moisture and a mid-level shortwave. The presence of this coastal trough will help bring in some isolated showers for the CWA through the rest of the long term forecast period. Though peak chances of about 40 percent occur next Thursday and then decrease from there.

After the cold front moves through, temperatures are expected to become much colder. During the day on Saturday, high temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, but after the cold front moves through Saturday night and the cold air moves in. Low temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 40s to low 50s. An almost 30 to 40 degree change in temperatures. The high temperatures for Sunday and Monday are mostly in the 60s. The low temperatures for Sunday night are expected to be the coldest of the long term forecast period. Not only will the cold air from the front maintain a presence, but the skies are expected to clear out, which will allow for a lot of radiative cooling to occur. Thus we could see low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will shift towards the southeast during the day on Monday allowing for a gradual warm up to occur. However, with the coastal trough building in on Monday night and the skies expected to be mostly cloudy to overcast during afterwards temperatures will not climb too much. Generally the low temperatures for the rest of the long term forecast period will be in the 50s with a few places in the low 60s. While the high temperatures will be in the range of upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for through the night for BRO and MFE, and MVFR at HRL as clouds ceilings lower through tonight into late morning on Friday. MVFR conditions are expected at BRO and MFE near daybreak, with brief periods of MVFR possible later tonight/early Friday morning. Southeasterly winds will increase by midday as the pressure gradient strenghtens with gusts later Friday morning into the afternoon between 25 and 30 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Tonight through Friday night...A slowly increasing S/SE gradient aided initially by an approaching shortwave will prevail through Fri across the coastal waters. Leaned towards the NBM experimental winds which meant small craft should exercise caution conditions as opposed to advisory conditions. Winds and seas will peak on Fri afternoon and evening before slowly weakening and subsiding on Fri night. Isolated convection will be possible mainly over the offshore waters tonight into Fri morning due to a better moisture profile interacting with the approaching shortwave. Rain chances will end once the shortwave moves east of the area by the afternoon.

Saturday through Next Thursday...While favorable conditions are expected for Saturday during the day. After a strong cold front moves through the Lower Texas Coast, hazardous conditions are expected Saturday night through late Sunday night into Monday.
There is a strong likelihood that Gale Watch will be needed. While favorable conditions are expected Monday through late Tuesday.
Conditions will deteriorate again on Wednesday due to a combination of a coastal trough and enhanced easterly winds building swells. Resulting in a need of Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisories through next Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 65 82 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 76 71 77 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:29 AM CST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:23 PM CST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:28 PM CST     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 AM CST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:39 PM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM CST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM CST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas (2), Tide feet

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