Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:03 AM CDT (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Expires:201908192100;;470315 Fzus54 Kbro 191500 Cwfbro Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Brownsville Tx 1000 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019 Lower Texas Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To The Mouth Of The Rio Grande Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz130-132-135-192100- Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1000 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1000 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis..High pressure ridge gradually heads northwest over the next couple of days, weakening the pressure gradient, and allowing winds to generally decrease across the lower texas coastal waters through the week. Gusty winds are possible during the afternoon hours across the laguna madre and nearshore gulf waters through Tuesday. Seas slowly subside through Wednesday and build late Thursday into Friday due to increasing southeasterly swell. Deep tropical moisture flowing northward will increase coverage and perhaps intensity of showers and Thunderstorms especially in the gulf beginning on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 191130 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
630 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr conditions expected to prevail through the taf
period with high pressure in full control. As previously
advertised, a few brief periods of MVFR CIGS are possible from
the southeast as streamer clouds work inland from the gulf this
morning and again late tonight. Southeast winds once again gust to
20-24 kts this afternoon, although, not as breezy as the weekend.

Prev discussion issued 341 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
short term (now through Tuesday): high pressure heads northwest
through the short term period, allowing the pressure gradient to
weaken, and letting southeasterly winds generally decrease, across
deep south texas today and tomorrow. Wind gusts this afternoon
should still reach 20-25 mph at times, especially across the mid to
lower rio grande valley. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible along the seabreeze, mainly across willacy or kenedy
counties, this afternoon, otherwise, dry conditions will persist
through Monday night.

With high pressure edging northwestward, the seabreeze on Tuesday,
and likely into the long term, may be able to march further inland,
possibly tapping into the heat to initiate shower or thunderstorm
development. Have bumped silent pops on Tuesday afternoon a nudge,
still staying below 15 percent, but expecting some sort of life out
of the seabreeze advancing west. Expect an increase in clouds across
the coastal counties, at the very least, today into Tuesday.

Have decided to once again issue a heat advisory across the central-
east counties, with the highest heat indices expected along and east
of i69c to along and mostly west of i69e. This may be the last gasp
of the recent heat wave in regards to heat headlines, as heat
indices for Tuesday reside below any heat advisory criteria at this
time, generally peaking at 105 to 109 degrees. Will hold off on
issuing a rangeland fire discussion today, as conditions appear to
be just below criteria. A fire weather discussion will continue
below.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday): the long term period will
begin with an inverted trough nudging into deep south texas, pushing
the 500 mb ridge further north into the southern plains and four
corners region. The weakness in 500 mb heights along with low to mid
level moisture advection will bring increased cloud cover and pops
into our cwa. As such, high temperatures are expected to drop
slightly (although still likely stay above normal) and bring a
little respite from the oppressive heat. Best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be along the coastal areas and offshore where
models keep the majority of the moisture.

On Thursday, models show a 500 mb low form in the western gulf and
begin tracking northward around the northwestern edge of the gulf
through Saturday. While this feature is shown on both the ECMWF and
gfs, discrepancies in its development bring down forecast confidence
a bit through the rest of the forecast period. The ECMWF has a
closed 500 mb low skirt along the northwestern gulf on Friday and
keeps the bulk of the low to mid level moisture offshore. However,
the GFS shows this feature to be less organized and brings the
moisture further inland across our CWA as it makes its trek along
the northwestern gulf. Regardless of the discrepancies between the
models, both are in agreement with the increased moisture mostly
over our coastal region and gulf waters, so have kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period with the best
chances being offshore.

The forecast for Sunday will depend primarily on the development
and progression of a mid level trough. With widely varying model
solutions this far out, will go with a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms for now.

Marine (now through Tuesday): high pressure edges northwest toward
the desert SW over the next couple of days, weakening the pressure
gradient across the lower texas coast. This will allow the southeast
onshore flow to also decrease into Tuesday. Afternoon wind gusts may
still reach 20 knots this afternoon across the laguna madre and
nearshore gulf of mexico waters. Small craft should exercise caution
this afternoon and early evening. Gulf seas eventually subside as
wind speeds overall decrease through Tuesday, with 3-5 feet expected
today, shifting further offshore and generally subsiding to 2-4 feet
Tuesday, and 2-3 feet with improving surf conditions along the lower
texas coastal shoreline.

Tuesday night through Friday... Light to moderate southeast winds
will continue across the coastal waters on Tuesday night with
surface high pressure across the eastern gulf of mexico. The
pressure gradient will begin to weaken by midweek and allow winds
to diminish on Wednesday, but then pick up again heading into
Friday with a tightening of the pressure gradient. Seas generally
follow the wind pattern trending 2 to 4 or 2 to 3 feet through
Thursday and then building to 3 to 5 feet on Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at times across the coastal waters
throughout the period.

Fire weather... Rangeland fire discussion may not be needed today as
conditions appear to stay just below criteria. Humidity values this
afternoon are expected to be slightly higher than observed yesterday
across the western counties, with 20 foot wind speeds generally
staying below 15 mph or higher until later this afternoon or early
this evening, as the lowest humidity values have already rebounded.

Still, humidity values in the mid to upper 20 percent range are
expected across zapata, jim hogg, and starr counties with breezy
southeast winds. Couple those conditions with critically dry fuels
across most of deep south texas, and burning of any kind, west of
i69c especially, should be strongly discouraged and postponed a
couple of days. At this time, drier air is expected out west on
Tuesday, with humidity values dipping into the low to mid 20 percent
range and 20 foot wind speeds again near 15 mph, mainly later in the
afternoon.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... Heat advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm cdt this evening
for txz250-251-253>255-353.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
56-hallman... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi52 min 86°F 88°F1014.7 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi52 min SE 12 G 14 85°F 86°F1014.5 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi52 min SE 12 G 16 87°F 86°F1014 hPa
BZST2 35 mi52 min SSE 7 G 8.9 82°F 77°F1014.3 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi52 min SSE 9.9 G 13 84°F 1015.2 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi52 min SSE 11 G 17 87°F 83°F1014.9 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi24 min SSE 12 G 14 86°F 85°F1015.4 hPa81°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi2.2 hrsSSE 910.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRL

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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SE12------SE9----SE5SE6SE6--S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Padre Island (South), Texas
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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:20 PM CDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM CDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.70.811.11.21.21.21.1110.90.9111.11.11.11.110.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Padre Island (South), Texas (2)
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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Mon -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:39 AM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:21 PM CDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.811.11.21.31.31.10.90.80.80.80.90.911.11.11.11.10.90.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.