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GMZ132 Expires:202312111045;;248813 Fzus54 Kbro 102134 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 334 pm cst Sun dec 10 2023
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-111045- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 334 pm cst Sun dec 10 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 334 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure moves over the lower texas coast tonight and as such the pressure gradient relaxes. This allows for winds and seas to diminish should become favorable by Monday. Northerly winds are expected to turn towards the southeast during the day on Monday. A coastal trough is expected to develop on Tuesday that will bring isolated showers.

FXUS64 KBRO 102041 CCA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 241 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Chilly; Winds becoming calm.

- Near freezing temperatures northern Ranchlands early Monday.

.Short term (Tonight through Monday night):Surface high pressure settles along the Texas coast tonight and tracks eastward Monday.
Pleasant but chilly (coldest of the season) conditions tonight as radiational cooling maximizes. Probabilistic guidance continues to highlight a low chance (10% or less) of temperatures falling to 32 degrees or less tonight, mainly across portions of the Northern Ranchlands of Brooks and Kenedy Counties. Will continue to advertise near freezing temperatures over the northern ranchlands but can not rule out a few locations touching 31-32 degrees for one or two hours before sunrise. Elsewhere, the clear skies, low dew points and calming winds should allow for 36-42 degrees and near 50 along the immediate coastline. Deterministic models suggest ridge axis shifts east of the coast by 18Z allowing winds to veer east to southeast Monday afternoon. Temperatures recover but remain slightly below normal with mid 60s to near 70 indicated by the latest consensus guidance. A weak upper trough over Central Mexico may be the source of increasing high cloudiness tomorrow afternoon but they should remain thin enough allowing for a good amount of sunshine and another pleasant day. As southeast winds become established Monday night, models suggest surface-850 RH increasing which leads to an influx of low clouds. This in return helps moderate temperatures with latest guidance showing an increase of 12-20 degrees (upper 40s to mid 50s) over what is expected tonight.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The start of the long term period will see cloud coverage spread over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as a coastal trough develops by Tuesday evening. This coastal trough should develop in a pretty favorable environment as a mid-level shortwave and low-level moisture will be able to help support it. The biggest feature that will be associated with this coastal trough will be the cloud coverage which will act to shorten the diurnal span in temperature changes through late Thursday into Friday. At which point, a mid- level trough will swing into North Texas and slowly move eastward through the rest of the long term period. Meanwhile at the same time on the surface high pressure will build into the region allowing for a resurgence of cold air into the region. Based on WPC's current analysis a cold front should also push through the region after 12Z on Thursday, which occurs around the same time that a surface ridge in the northeast in expands outwards.

There are a lot of moving parts that will shape the end result of the long term forecast. However, many of these features are towards the end of the long term period. Model trends have been shifting a bit over the last several days and there are some disagreements between the models on timing in locations of those features. While future model analysis will give better insight as these events draw closer there are still a couple of trends that have been consistent in the runs. First, cloud coverage has remain fairly consistent in all the model runs indicating that the majority of the long term forecast period will see mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Second, has been colder temperatures moving into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley around Friday after a cold front moves through on Thursday. Third, has been that the greatest chances for rain will be on Thursday and into Friday.

As for the temperatures, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and become progressively cool through the long term period until they are in the 60s by next weekend. Low temperatures at the start of the long term period will start in the 60s and then also become colder through the long term period though at a slower rate and by Friday morning, lows will be in the 50s with a few places in the 60s. However by Saturday morning, temperatures are expected to drop into the range of upper 40s and lower 50s and just a tad colder on Sunday morning.

Lastly, surface high pressure is likely going to aid in the development of a long easterly fetch, which in turn will generate long period swell across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This may lead to minor coastal flooding and elevated rip currents along the Lower Texas Coast, especially Wendesday into Thursday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest to north winds with occasional gusts around 25 knots for most of the afternoon. Winds diminish around sunset and go calm by midnight as surface high pressure settles nearby.

MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Tonight through Monday night...Surface ridge settles along the Texas coast tonight before shift east Monday. Northerly winds and seas will continue to steadily improve with The latest SCA's likely to expire the latter half of the afternoon. Much improved marine conditions anticipated Monday as pressure gradient relaxes with the surface ridge tracking east just north of the Gulf South States.

Tuesday through Next Sunday...Generally favorable conditions for Tuesday, however they will become more adverse into Tuesday night as a coastal trough develops and an easterly swell starts to build. Elevated seas and stronger winds will lead to a long duration of Small Craft Advisories starting around Tuesday night through the remainder of the period. The presence of the coastal trough will support the development of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through next Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 41 69 59 73 / 0 0 0 20 HARLINGEN 38 69 55 74 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 40 69 55 72 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 38 67 52 70 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 48 67 63 71 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 41 68 58 73 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ170-175.

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