Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:03PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 4:33 PM CDT (21:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:08PMMoonset 8:51AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Expires:201910170330;;811299 Fzus54 Kbro 162046 Cwfbro Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Brownsville Tx 346 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019 Lower Texas Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To The Mouth Of The Rio Grande Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz130-132-135-170330- Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 346 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am cdt Thursday...
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots early diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late. Rough on the bay early, becoming choppy late. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered showers through the night. Scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots shifting northeast in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots shifting south after midnight. A light chop on the bay.
Saturday..South winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay building to a light chop in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 346 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis..A cold front is moving through the lower texas coastal waters this afternoon. The passage of this front will bring strong north winds and building seas this evening through tonight. Hazardous marine conditions are likely to continue through tonight for the bay waters and possibly into Thursday for the gulf waters. Thunderstorms may bring locally gusty winds and agitated seas. The winds and seas will improve into the weekend as the front stalls but the Thunderstorm chances will persist. The front will also steer a possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern gulf of mexico well to the east of the lower texas coastal waters. Southerly winds will increase again by Sunday night ahead of the next cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 162059
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
359 pm cdt Wed oct 16 2019
.Short term (tonight through Thursday night): per radar and visible
goes-16 satellite imagery, looks like the front "proper" is now
moving southward, along roughly a line from la joya back toward port
mansfield. This is after a previous wind shift pre-frontal trough
turned winds northerly earlier today. Made some tweaks to
temps dewpoints pop's through the remainder of the afternoon to
reflect latest timing of the front.

Overnight, coastal troughing begins to set up as the front pushes
offshore, aided by a surface low taking shape well to our south in
the bay of campeche. While the national hurricane center gives this
low a 50% chance of development within the next few days, the front
and an upper-level low now over west texas will essentially "shield"
us from any direct impacts. By later on Thursday, some swell may
begin radiating outward, increasing rip current risk and possibly
leading to minor coastal flooding by Thursday night... But this is
still uncertain.

Back to more concrete impacts... The coastal troughing will keep nnw
winds modest cold-air advection going tonight. Latest model
guidance was in pretty good agreement on temperatures, so no drastic
changes were needed to the inherited forecast. Going with Thursday
morning lows ranging from the low 60s in jim hogg county up to
69 70f in the brownsville metro. Chances of light rain showers
expected to keep up through the night as well, though favoring the
rio grande valley and points east of u. S. 77 i-69e. Looking at
forecast soundings, not really a true signal for isentropic lifting,
but should be enough convergence into the troughing to do the trick.

Here, and in general, have blended inherited pop's with latest nbm
numbers, which represents a pretty fair middle ground in the
guidance. Have removed mention of thunder over land after 00z this
evening through the short-term (except for the immediate coast
Thursday daytime), as forecast MUCAPE looks pretty abysmal. With
northerly component to the wind continuing through Thursday, along
with mostly cloudy skies east of hwy. 281, high temps should remain
5-8 degrees below normal, perhaps touching 80 along the rio with
upper 70s elsewhere.

A drying trend finally kicks in by Thursday night (with GFS a bit
faster vs. Nam) as the upper trough axis passes late in the day and
short-wave ridging approaches upstream. Have trended pop's down
through the night accordingly. If the sharper drying does
materialize, these may have to be trimmed further. Morning lows may
be just a touch warmer along the coast vs. Thursday, as winds
acquire an onshore component.

.Long term (Friday through Wednesday): mid-level pattern will
transition from the mid-level low over texas early Friday into
zonal flow for the upcoming weekend across deep south texas. As
the mid-level low ejects northeastward, it will help to capture
and send the surface low of invest 96l (possibly hybrid low with
both tropical characteristics and baroclinic processes) northeast
as well. Not expecting in much of any impacts with regards to the
invest 96l system besides some increased coastal impacts (see the
final long term paragraph below).

The surface front stalled to our south that moved across our area
today will be expected to lift northward as a warm front during
Friday into Friday night. This will result in the turning of the
surface winds out of the south-southeast and the slight chance
for coastal showers and or a thunderstorm or two. The weekend is
to trend very warm with well above average temperatures. A few
locales may approach record highs both Saturday and Sunday. A
mainly dry forecast will be expected on Saturday while isolated
seabreeze convection may be possible on Sunday.

The more uncertain portion of the long term will occur on Monday
as an upper level trough and strengthening mid-latitude cyclone
moving across the central plains, drives the next cold front
southward across the state. The models still remain in decent
agreement of the arrival of the cold front across our region on
Monday. Did lower the temperatures a tad, especially for the
northern ranchlands as the front looks to move through that
region prior to the maximum daytime heating potential. Expect
for rain and thunderstorm chances mainly along and out ahead of
the frontal boundary. Cooler along with much drier air should
filter into the region with the northerly flow. Models do show
some discrepancy on the location of the front after it moves
across the region along with the magnitude of the cooling in the
wake of the boundary. Depending on the front's position to the
south after its passage across the valley and possible any coastal
troughing, some showers or isolated thunderstorms couldn't be
ruled out across the lower valley and along the coastal areas into
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are to around seasonable
levels in wake of the front with Tuesday slightly cooler than
Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding with the water line approaching or reaching
the dune line may be possible from Friday into the weekend due to
increasing magnitudes of the local astronomical tides and some
possible increased swell wave heights with the possible evolution
of invest 96l in the gulf of mexico. In addition, the arrival of
the cold front on Monday, could also result in possible minor
coastal flood concerns as well. Another concern will be the
possible uptick in the risk for rip currents.

.Marine (now through Thursday night): winds starting to pick up
around the laguna madre, pretty much on schedule, with the small
craft advisory (sca) which took effect at 3 pm cdt. Nne winds
should hold right around 20 knots over the gulf waters through
scheduled SCA expiration at 1 am cdt; laguna likely to drop off to
small craft exercise caution levels a little earlier. Seas build
to 4-5 ft. As well tonight. Winds veer a bit toward the NE for
Thursday, especially on the gulf, as a coastal trough is
maintained with a surface low well to the south in the bay of
campeche. Scec likely to be maintained as winds stay in the 15-20
knot range and seas, perhaps with some swell radiating out from
the aforementioned surface low, stay up around 5 ft. Offshore.

Some improvement may be seen by late Thursday night as the low
moves rapidly NE toward the central gulf coast.

(Friday through Monday): surface winds will return out of the
south-southeast of light to moderate levels from Friday into the
weekend. Seas look to trend of around moderate levels but swell
could increase due to possible tropical sub-tropical development
of invest 96l across the gulf of mexico. The southerly winds do
increase Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next front with
small craft exercise caution levels. The conditions will then
deteriorate even further Monday afternoon with the expected
passage of the next cold front with breezy northerly winds and
higher seas in its wake.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Thursday for gmz130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
short term... Schroeder 53
long term... Brady 62


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi52 min 79°F 82°F1014 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi52 min N 21 G 25 77°F 81°F1014.1 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi52 min N 23 G 26 81°F 84°F1013 hPa
BZST2 35 mi52 min N 23 G 28 80°F 82°F1012.8 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi52 min N 12 G 22 81°F 1012.7 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi52 min N 16 G 24 81°F 80°F1013.3 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi24 min N 27 G 31 73°F 83°F1013.5 hPa72°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi42 minN 18 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy88°F70°F55%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRL

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12SE13
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SE12SE9SE6SE6SE6SE3CalmE4SE5S5S4S3CalmN8N9N7NE12N15
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1 day agoS12SE14SE12SE10SE7SE7SE7S8SE6SE6S6S6SE5SE4SE7SE6S5SE10S14S11
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2 days agoN7NE4NE6E4CalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3SW6SW4CalmSW3S7S7S9S7SE8
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.