Sunrise 6:56 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 8:54 PM   Moonset 6:47 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ132 Expires:202404260315;;351032 Fzus54 Kbro 251412 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 912 am cdt Thu apr 25 2024
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-260315- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 912 am cdt Thu apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through Friday evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Choppy on the bay becoming rough this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Rough on the bay. Friday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Choppy on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Rough on the bay. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Rough on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 912 Am Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis - Fresh to strong southeast winds and high seas expected through Sunday. Winds will diminish somewhat Sunday night, but elevated wave heights will continue on the gulf of mexico waters.

FXUS64 KBRO 251130 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 630 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An upper level ridge will continue to move eastward during today and on Friday. A mid-level trough will move behind the ridge, which will keep the upper level ridge moving. The upper level patterns will aid in the development of a surface low in the Lee of the Rockies and a gradual deepening of the low will lead into a tightening of the pressure gradient that will result in some gusty winds over the region. However currently winds are expected to be just below Wind Advisory criteria, has wind gusts are expected to be around 35 mph and sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph, at this current point based on the latest model guidance. However given that it is so borderline, wind advisories for Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties might be needed if the winds end up being stronger than currently anticipated. Either way, today is expected to be a windy day. Models are also showing a similar pattern unfolding for Friday as well. The period looks to be rain free mainly due to the upper level ridge affecting Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

With the surface winds coming from the south to southeast during the short term forecast period, temperatures will be on the warmer side.
The high temperatures for today and tomorrow see the 90s take over majority of the area, leaving only the coastal areas and the island in the upper 80s. Meanwhile the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the 70s for the entire area.

Finally, along the coast, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in place through Friday as the swell and waves continue to build with the stronger winds. A High Surf Advisory might be needed for tomorrow if the waves continue to build higher.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

* Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday night into Sunday; wind gusts up to 40 mph out of the southeast are possible.

* Adverse marine conditions are expected to continue into Monday.

* Low grade (20-30%) or isolated chances for showers and storms are possible Monday-Wednesday night.

The long-term forecast period will feature mostly dry conditions over the local CWA There will be the chance for some low grade/isolated (20-30% PoPs) chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day/night from Monday-Wednesday night. Areas west of I-69C and over the northern Ranchlands will have the best chance to see showers and thunderstorms as forecast models are signaling for storms to develop over the mountains of north-central Mexico and a frontal boundary stalling out just to our north. Chances for storms will depend on if and how far east the storms that form over mountains translate east and how far south a frontal boundary to our north sags south. Greatest confidence as far as timing currently is Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Other than that, expect for a continuation of dry weather over the area with warm to very warm temperatures and increased humidity levels. Winds will remain a factor Friday night into Sunday amid a tight pressure gradient over the region. Forecast models are suggesting low level jet (LLJ) 850 mb winds ranging between 30-45 kts during this time period. Couple this with local topographic enhancements and wouldn't be surprised for wind gust to reach Wind Advisory criteria (especially Saturday night).

Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Starting off with MVFR conditions through the morning hours for the TAF sites and then during the afternoon some VFR breaks are possible. Southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to be windy during the late morning through the evening due to an enhanced pressure gradient over the region with wind gusts up to 30 knots expected.

MARINE
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today through Friday...While conditions will start out favorable, the tightening pressure gradient between a developing low near the Rockies and high pressure over the Gulf, will see winds and seas become elevated by this afternoon resulting in hazardous conditions.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters through tonight. While conditions for the offshore Gulf waters look to remain under criteria for a Small Craft Advisory since the winds don't stay strong enough or have enough presence at this current point, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for the offshore Gulf waters as the seas will be adverse.

Friday Night through Wednesday Night....Breezy to windy conditions from a strong pressure gradient will result in continued adverse marine conditions Friday evening into the early parts of next week.
Small Craft conditions are likely Friday night through Sunday night and possibly into Monday especially over the Gulf Waters. Marine conditions will look to improve Monday night into Wednesday of next week with light to moderate winds returning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 75 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 75 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 80 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 73 86 73 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas, Tide feet

Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Brownsville, TX,