Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Mansfield, TX
May 18, 2024 10:05 AM CDT (15:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:05 PM Moonset 2:45 AM |
GMZ132 Expires:202405190315;;427109 Fzus54 Kbro 181425 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 925 am cdt Sat may 18 2024
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-190315- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 925 am cdt Sat may 18 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 10 knots late this afternoon. Light chop on the bay.
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay.
Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay.
Sunday night - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 925 am cdt Sat may 18 2024
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-190315- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 925 am cdt Sat may 18 2024
GMZ100 925 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis -
a weak front located just south of the coastal waters will gradually weaken today and tonight. Due to the prolixity of this front, there will be a few showers possible today across the coastal waters. Otherwise, a dry forecast is expected through next week as high pressure aloft builds into the region from the west. Onshore flow will begin to increase early next week and continue that trend throughout next week. Seas will respond accordingly and slowly build throughout next week as well.
a weak front located just south of the coastal waters will gradually weaken today and tonight. Due to the prolixity of this front, there will be a few showers possible today across the coastal waters. Otherwise, a dry forecast is expected through next week as high pressure aloft builds into the region from the west. Onshore flow will begin to increase early next week and continue that trend throughout next week. Seas will respond accordingly and slowly build throughout next week as well.
Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 626 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
The short-term forecast period starts today and will mark the onset of another stretch of very warm to hot, humid, hazy, and dry conditions. Latest LAPS/MSAS surface analysis depicts a sfc high pressure system building into the area in the wake of a departed frontal boundary and shortwave. This sfc feature will result in increased subsidence over the region which will yield dry and tranquil weather conditions.
As far as the warmth/heat, forecast models and ensembles continue to depict 500 mb geopotential heights rising to between 591-591 dam as a broad, elongated sub-tropical heat dome stretching from the eastern Pacific to the Caribbeans strengthen. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are expected to increase to about 582 dam today and 585 dam on Sunday. With 850 mb temperatures expected to climb to between 22-24C on both days, high temperatures will range from the low/mid 90s to near 100F both today and Sunday. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices are expected to range from 100-110F. While heat indices look to fall just below Heat Advisory criteria, the NWS HeatRisk tool suggest that any heat related impacts will be confined to most individuals sensitive to heat.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue Saturday night with overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80F with similar dewpoint values. Some patchy mist/fog is possible along with haze as light winds and copious amounts of low level moisture will result in narrow dewpoint depressions.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Mid-level ridging will build over Texas through the period leading to warming temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady southeast winds, breezy at times, will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the region and thus keeping the air very humid. The combination of lack of deep moisture and subsidence will maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term.
Temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s near the coast. The triple digits will expand eastward through the week, reaching the I-69c/US 77 corridor on Tuesday. High humidity combined with the hot surface temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures exceeding 110 degrees in several locations and Heat Advisories may be needed on Monday.
However, Heat Advisories will be more likely Tuesday through next Saturday as the heat indices over 111 degrees are more widespread on those days. The latest NBM suggests that the max heat index at 116 degrees for a few locations Friday and next Saturday afternoon.
Thus, a possible Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches might be needed during that time. Overnight temperatures each night will remain warm with lows falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.
There is a Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with heat indices ranging up to around 111 degrees for Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, appears to pose an Extreme heat risk with heat indices 111- 116 degrees across much of Deep South Texas. This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Through 12z Sunday.....Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery reveals clearing skies overhead and to our west as a frontal boundary continues to shift southeast and in its wake a sfc high builds into the region. Latest obs at the terminals indicate mainly VFR conditions with the exception of KHRL (IFR due to ceilings of 800 feet AGL).
Through this morning, expect for mainly VFR conditions to take place, though there could be instances of MVFR to IFR conditions. As we shift into this afternoon, expect for VFR conditions to be the dominant/main flight category over the terminals. Later tonight, expect for MVFR conditions to return to the terminals.
Light and variable winds this morning will become more east- northeast at 5-10 kts later this morning and afternoon. Later this evening/tonight, expect for winds to trend towards light and variable to calm.
MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Today through Sunday: Light to moderate winds will yield low to moderate seas today through Sunday. While marine conditions are mainly favorable through Sunday, there remains a "Moderate Risk" for rip currents along the are beaches through Sunday.
Sunday night through Wednesday: Weak to moderate onshore flow with moderate seas of generally 3 to 4 ft will persist through Monday. A locally enhanced pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters each afternoon into the early evening hours, Tuesday through late week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 84 80 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 626 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
The short-term forecast period starts today and will mark the onset of another stretch of very warm to hot, humid, hazy, and dry conditions. Latest LAPS/MSAS surface analysis depicts a sfc high pressure system building into the area in the wake of a departed frontal boundary and shortwave. This sfc feature will result in increased subsidence over the region which will yield dry and tranquil weather conditions.
As far as the warmth/heat, forecast models and ensembles continue to depict 500 mb geopotential heights rising to between 591-591 dam as a broad, elongated sub-tropical heat dome stretching from the eastern Pacific to the Caribbeans strengthen. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are expected to increase to about 582 dam today and 585 dam on Sunday. With 850 mb temperatures expected to climb to between 22-24C on both days, high temperatures will range from the low/mid 90s to near 100F both today and Sunday. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices are expected to range from 100-110F. While heat indices look to fall just below Heat Advisory criteria, the NWS HeatRisk tool suggest that any heat related impacts will be confined to most individuals sensitive to heat.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue Saturday night with overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80F with similar dewpoint values. Some patchy mist/fog is possible along with haze as light winds and copious amounts of low level moisture will result in narrow dewpoint depressions.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Mid-level ridging will build over Texas through the period leading to warming temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady southeast winds, breezy at times, will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the region and thus keeping the air very humid. The combination of lack of deep moisture and subsidence will maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term.
Temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s near the coast. The triple digits will expand eastward through the week, reaching the I-69c/US 77 corridor on Tuesday. High humidity combined with the hot surface temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures exceeding 110 degrees in several locations and Heat Advisories may be needed on Monday.
However, Heat Advisories will be more likely Tuesday through next Saturday as the heat indices over 111 degrees are more widespread on those days. The latest NBM suggests that the max heat index at 116 degrees for a few locations Friday and next Saturday afternoon.
Thus, a possible Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches might be needed during that time. Overnight temperatures each night will remain warm with lows falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.
There is a Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with heat indices ranging up to around 111 degrees for Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, appears to pose an Extreme heat risk with heat indices 111- 116 degrees across much of Deep South Texas. This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Through 12z Sunday.....Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery reveals clearing skies overhead and to our west as a frontal boundary continues to shift southeast and in its wake a sfc high builds into the region. Latest obs at the terminals indicate mainly VFR conditions with the exception of KHRL (IFR due to ceilings of 800 feet AGL).
Through this morning, expect for mainly VFR conditions to take place, though there could be instances of MVFR to IFR conditions. As we shift into this afternoon, expect for VFR conditions to be the dominant/main flight category over the terminals. Later tonight, expect for MVFR conditions to return to the terminals.
Light and variable winds this morning will become more east- northeast at 5-10 kts later this morning and afternoon. Later this evening/tonight, expect for winds to trend towards light and variable to calm.
MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Today through Sunday: Light to moderate winds will yield low to moderate seas today through Sunday. While marine conditions are mainly favorable through Sunday, there remains a "Moderate Risk" for rip currents along the are beaches through Sunday.
Sunday night through Wednesday: Weak to moderate onshore flow with moderate seas of generally 3 to 4 ft will persist through Monday. A locally enhanced pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters each afternoon into the early evening hours, Tuesday through late week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 84 80 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PMNT2 | 2 mi | 48 min | 78°F | 85°F | 29.83 | |||
| RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX | 18 mi | 48 min | N 8G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.83 | ||
| RLIT2 | 20 mi | 48 min | NNW 7G | 80°F | 81°F | 29.82 | ||
| BZST2 | 35 mi | 48 min | NNW 8.9G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.78 | ||
| PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX | 35 mi | 48 min | NW 9.9G | 79°F | 83°F | 29.80 | ||
| PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX | 35 mi | 48 min | NNW 9.9G | 79°F | 84°F | 29.82 | ||
| 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX | 48 mi | 36 min | NE 5.8G | 81°F | 81°F | 29.85 | 80°F |
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas, Tide feet
Brownsville, TX,
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