Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matlacha, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Looking at satellite you can clearly see the upper level low spinning right over the Tampa Bay Area. This upper level low will slowly drift northeasterly through Tuesday. This will keep our wind flow out of the east and southeast. This will favor storms inland during the afternoon hours and closer to the coast in the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday the upper level low will be heading up to the Northeast coast. As it does so we will enter a more neutral flow regime with very light winds aloft. With this regime storms favor more inland areas however we will still see some storm heading towards the coast thanks to outflow boundaries in the evening hours.

As we head into the end of the week and into weekend we will see an interesting pattern in the upper level up in the northeast. Two upper level lows start to interact resulting in a Fujiwara effect. How does this effect our weather? It helps to bring upper level troughing over the area and to bring a cold front through late in the day on Thursday. This will switch our winds out of the north and bringing much drier air. This will keep shower chances down and bring some slightly cooler air especially in the morning.
Areas across the Nature Coast could see lows in the mid to upper 60's Saturday morning.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Storms along the I-4 corridor will once again mainly be in the evening hours thanks to easterly flow aloft. SW Florida will be have more of a southerly flow so timing of storms will be the late afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions and light winds expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Winds will remain light through the middle of next week out of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 knots. Scattered shower chances will be possible each day. A cold front will start to approach the area on Thursday switching our winds more northeasterly and picking them up to 15 to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 89 75 / 40 20 50 20 FMY 89 74 89 75 / 60 20 50 40 GIF 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 70 30 SRQ 89 74 90 74 / 50 30 50 40 BKV 90 71 91 72 / 40 30 60 20 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 40 30 40 30

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.