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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Today - S se winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the gulf stream. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tonight - S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the gulf stream. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - S sw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt becoming S sw in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu night - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt becoming W nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Fri - Along the coast, W sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, S se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis -
southeasterly flow will increase to hazardous levels as the pressure gradient between high pressure over the atlantic and low pressure over the central united states increases. The flow will then veer more southerly to southwesterly and likely remain at least cautionary on Wednesday as the low moves into the eastern united states.
gulf stream hazards: southeast to southerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 12 utc - .
9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 141152 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 752 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A mid-level disturbance developing over the Midwestern United States is producing perturbations that move from the western Gulf into the peninsula of Florida through a portion of the short term. The warm front will continue its retreat northward allowing for the region to remain in this hot and unsettled pattern through mid-week.

While the more widespread convective focus may remain north of southern Florida, sea breeze collisions will spur late afternoon/evening storms that could be stout with some strong to severe storms not out of the question due to cold air aloft and surface-based instability which could at times overcome whatever inhibition could remain. 500 mb temperatures will remain in the -10 to -8 deg C range through a good portion of the period and when favorable lapse rates materialize within the hail growth zone, there could be storms capable of producing large hail, frequent to excessive lightning, and locally damaging wind gusts. The localized threat of tornadic activity, such as funnel clouds, around boundary collisions is also something to be monitored.

Outside of the storms, temperatures will continue to be stifling with a warming trend underway. Heat index values will top the triple digits with the potential for Heat Advisories becoming necessary as early as Wednesday. As the mid-level low travels eastward, the surface cold front will move across the panhandle and enter the peninsula of Florida on Wednesday.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SErly winds will remain around 10-15kts this morning, becoming more southerly with gusts around 25kts once again during the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A southeasterly to southerly wind flow will become southwesterly as the next cold front approaches on Wednesday. Afternoon and evening sea breeze storms will still be possible, with a focus around Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot though the breeze could offer some relief in the shade.

BEACHES
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The wind flow will become more southerly to southwesterly today into Wednesday. Due to the combination of low tide time this morning and the last several days of the persistent southeast winds, the high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches will continue through at least this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 91 80 95 80 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 93 78 97 76 / 10 0 20 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 91 79 95 78 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 94 79 / 20 10 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 95 79 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 95 80 99 79 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 96 76 / 30 10 50 30 Boca Raton 92 79 97 78 / 20 10 40 30 Naples 92 79 91 78 / 0 10 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.

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