Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rotonda, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 812 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A narrow band of light to moderate showers continues to remain in place this evening from the central Gulf waters extending ENE through the Tampa Bay Metro area and into northern portions of Polk County. Meanwhile, a larger area of stratiform precipitation activity across northern FL will very slowly sag southward overnight into Sunday as a wave of low pressure pulls away into the SW Atlantic tomorrow and a frontal boundary slowly pulls southward. To the south of this frontal boundary, a humid airmass remains across central and SWFL with dewpoint values mostly in the 70s but dewpoints are mainly in the 50s across portions of the Nature Coast at this time. This particular set up appears to favor low clouds and areas of dense fog development tonight with dense fog headlines possibly being needed once again so this will be something that will need to be monitored closely during the overnight hours. The ongoing forecast continues to highlight this potential well so other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this evening based on radar trends, no other changes were needed at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

The upper ridge and surface high pressure center has shifted further southeastward and is located east of the Bahamas. This will allow for the frontal boundary to the north to dip a little farther southward bringing increasing rain chances over the northeastern gulf waters, Nature Coast and even into parts of central Florida.
Southwest Florida should stay mostly rain-free on Saturday. Warm and humid conditions continue on Saturday and Saturday night. The other weather concern will be the possibility of some areas of dense fog once again during the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The highest chances of dense fog will be from Tampa Bay southward.

On Sunday, the ridge to the southeast further weakens, which will allow for the frontal boundary to shift further south and will eventually push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Sunday will be the wettest day during the forecast period with high rain and storm chances (40-80 percent)
expected through the day.

The front will finally push south and east of Florida by Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Daytime highs for Monday through Friday next week will only reach the mid 60's to mid 70's each day with overnight lows dipping into the 40's and 50's each night next week. By next Friday, models are developing another area of low pressure over the northern gulf coast states and will bring our next chance of showers to end next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low clouds and areas of dense fog will be the main concern overnight as an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible in areas where this develops. The fog and low clouds should slowly lift by late morning or early afternoon on Sunday, though additional flight restrictions could still occur later in the day as rain chances increase. Highest rain chances will occur around the central FL terminals Sunday afternoon and evening but rain chances will slowly increase by the end of the TAF period in SWFL as well.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal boundary over northern Florida will keep variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Saturday evening. A chance of showers will be possible through the day in the vicinity of and south of the frontal boundary. There is also a possibility of some early morning dense fog over the eastern gulf waters early Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, rain and storm chances increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

High pressure sits southeast of Florida while a frontal boundary remains stretched across northern Florida. This will keep Florida in a warm and humid air mass with humidity values remaining above critical levels. The frontal boundary shifts further south on Saturday and Sunday with increasing rain and storm chances expected.
Some areas of dense fog will also be possible during the early morning hours on Sunday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week with no other fire weather concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 67 79 67 / 40 40 70 80 FMY 83 68 83 70 / 0 10 30 60 GIF 84 64 83 65 / 40 40 60 80 SRQ 80 67 80 67 / 20 30 50 80 BKV 80 59 79 59 / 40 50 80 80 SPG 79 69 78 68 / 40 40 60 80

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.