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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft. Period 7 seconds. NE swell 3 ft. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft. Period 7 seconds. E ne swell 4 ft. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Period 7 seconds. NE swell 3 ft. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Period 8 seconds. N ne swell 3 ft in the morning. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu and Thu night..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Fri night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E se after midnight, then becoming sw in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sat..W nw winds around 5 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sat night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis..
a moderate to strong northeasterly breeze will prevail over the local waters through the early portion of the week as a front pushes through the area and high pressure builds over the eastern us. Seas across the atlantic waters will remain hazardous due to the continued elevated winds and a developing northeasterly swell. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters today and could result in locally hazardous conditions.
gulf stream hazards: northeast winds 20 to 25 knots along with seas up to 8 feet.

FXUS62 KMFL 022328 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 728 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

RTMA observations and mesoanalysis this evening now indicate that the frontal boundary has propagated south of our area with breezy to gusty northeasterly flow continuing along our coastal communities. These gusty winds will wane in strength over the next few hours but remain breezy out of the northeast at times as the atmospheric column begins to decouple and stratify (as is the usual case during overnight). The movement with the aforementioned frontal boundary to our south has coincided nicely with a notable decrease in convective coverage across the region this evening outside of a few isolated showers. GOES Imagery's mid-level water vapor band 9 shows a substantial plume of dry mid-level air advecting into the region from our north. The combination of lower dewpoints at the surface and a plethora of drier air aloft in the mid-levels will act to limit shower activity overnight. Finally a respite from the continuous moisture and humidity.

With the onshore flow continuing and the higher than normal tides due to King Tides, additional minor coastal flooding will be possible across our coastal communities along the east coast during the next tide cycle which will occur late this evening into early Tuesday.

Outside of that, no major changes were made to the previous forecast at this time. Have a great evening!

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Models depict a brief drying trend across the area beginning Tuesday and through the middle of the work week as a decaying frontal boundary pushes into extreme SoFlo. Meanwhile, latest sfc analyses show broad high pressure now expanding across the E CONUS and into the northern portions of the peninsula.

Storm motion will remain mainly NE-SW through this evening as the air mass begins to modify in the wake of a FROPA. Model PWATs show a drop of about 1.5 inches from latest values. On the other hand, high- res guidance suggests that some lingering moisture may persist around east coast areas, for which isolated to low-end scattered 20- 30 percent coverage will remain in the forecast.

As cloud cover decreases, high temperatures should continue to climb into the low 90s Tuesday afternoon, with overall conditions becoming drier overnight.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Tuesday Night Through Friday night...
A mid to upper level low will develop off the Florida east coast over the Western ATlantic waters, as a surface ridge of high pressure remains over the Atlantic waters. This will allow for some mid level drier air to work into the region from the north.
However, low level moisture will remain in place over South Florida due to the northeast low level flow. This in turn will allow for some showers and a thunderstorm or two to develop over the Atlantic waters this week and push southwest into the east coast metro areas at times. Therefore, a 20 to 30 percent chance of POPs will remain in place over the eastern areas including the Atlantic waters for the middle to end of the week with the western areas of South Florida remain mostly dry.

Highs east day will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s over most areas, except around 90 over the southern interior and west coast metro areas. Lows each night will be in the lower to mid 70s, except mid to upper 70s east coast metro areas and around 70 near Lake Okeechobee.

Next Weekend
The mid to upper level low should dissipate over the Western Atlantic waters allowing for a weak cold front to through South Florida on Saturday before moving back into South Florida on Sunday. This will allow for drier air to work into the region on Saturday before some low level moisture returns to the region on Sunday. At this time, it looks like Saturday will be dry before a slight chance of POPs returns to South Florida on Sunday.

Highs this weekend will be still be in the mid to upper 80s except around 90 over the southern interior areas. Lows will also remain in the lower to mid 70s over most areas, except around 70 near Lake Okeechobee region.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Decreasing SHRA over the next several hours with gusty NE winds becoming breezy overnight. Winds will pick up once again tomorrow after sunrise with gusty NE winds at all sites by late morning.
TAF forecast will be mostly dry in nature but cannot rule out an isolated shower.

MARINE
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Breezy to windy ENE/NE winds will continue over the Atlantic and Gulf seas through tonight tonight before slowly decreasing to Moderate conditions by Wednesday. There will also be a 2 to 4 feet swell affecting the Atlantic waters of South Florida through Tuesday before slowly decreasing to 2 feet or less by middle of this week.

Therefore, the Atlantic seas will be 6 to 8 feet tonight slowly decreasing to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday night and continue to slowly decrease to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday. The Gulf seas will be 3 to 5 feet tonight before slowly decreasing to 2 feet or less by Tuesday night.

Therefore, a SCA will remain in effect for the Atlantic seas through Tuesday afternoon. The SCA for the Gulf seas will remain in effect through Tuesday morning.

There could also be some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters through middle to end of this week.

BEACHES
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

We are currently in a period of enhanced astronomical tides. Along the Atlantic Coast of South Florida, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible through Tuesday afternoon during periods of high tide due to increased water levels and onshore flow.
Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday afternoon for the east coastal areas of South Florida.

The onshore flow and Northeast swells will bring a high risk for rip currents along the entire Atlantic Coast through Wednesday.
High surf will also be possible along the Palm Beach County beaches through middle of the week and will continue to monitor this closely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 87 76 88 / 20 20 20 30 West Kendall 74 88 75 90 / 30 20 20 30 Opa-Locka 76 87 76 89 / 20 20 20 30 Homestead 76 87 76 87 / 30 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 86 77 87 / 20 20 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 87 77 88 / 20 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 76 87 76 88 / 20 20 20 30 West Palm Beach 75 86 74 87 / 20 20 30 30 Boca Raton 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 30 Naples 74 90 73 90 / 10 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

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North Palm Beach
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Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Palm Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Lake Worth Creek
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Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lake Worth Creek, Day Beacon 19, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

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