Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 8:31 AM   Moonset 11:10 PM

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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 253 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late this evening and early morning, then becoming north late. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 253 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - Dry and warm weather will remain in place through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure then shifts out into the atlantic by early next week as a low pressure system drives a cold front towards the northern gulf waters. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front may approach advisory levels by Tuesday with seas around 2-4 ft into mid week. In addition, scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected to accompany the frontal passage. High pressure will then build back into the area briefly by Thursday with wind speeds decreasing and seas falling to 3 ft or less.

FXUS62 KTBW 111857 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 257 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Drier air continues to advect into the area in the wake of the frontal boundary from this morning, but lingering moisture may be enough to spark a few storms across far southern interior areas, though this chance is rather low as better sea breeze convergence is expected to occur on the eastern side of the peninsula. Other than the low PoPs for far southern interior areas, the rest of the day will be dry for the remainder of the region with a decreasing trend in dewpoints through this evening.
While the post-frontal airmass will not offer too much in the way of relief regarding the warm temperatures for Mother's Day tomorrow as highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with ridging building aloft, the lower humidity values should remain in place through the end of the weekend which before the more humid conditions make a comeback by next week. It should also be a mostly rain-free day tomorrow with upper level ridging in place but models show increasing mid/upper level moisture will yield an increase in cloud cover in the northwest flow aloft so can't rule out a few light showers/sprinkles across southern interior areas if enough moisture can return during peak heating hours, though PoPs are generally less than 20%.

The new week will begin with ridging aloft quickly shifting off to the east ahead of a shortwave trough swinging across the mid Mississippi Valley. As surface high pressure shifts out into the Atlantic, low level south-southeast flow will bring a return of deeper moisture and an opportunity for scattered showers and storms on Monday, mainly driven by sea breeze activity.
Precipitation coverage will increase further by Tuesday, particularly for the northern half of the forecast area, as the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes into the TN valley and the associated cold front sweeps across the Gulf Coast states. While there remains uncertainty in the evolution of convective activity with this system, it looks like there is a possibility for at least one or several waves of convection on Tuesday that could move across the northern portions of Florida where the better dynamics are expected to be. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out with this activity as models show that plenty of shear and good instability is expected to be in place, but specifics in details will be hard to resolve at this time. Rain chances should gradually increase southward into Wednesday as the frontal boundary drops into the central peninsula and stalls into late week around the northern portions of the state. As the frontal boundary lifts back north of the area, weak ridging appears to move back in and this should yield lower rain chances late week, though there will still be more than enough moisture in place to support at least some rain chances with greatest coverage expected to occur during peak diurnal heating. While the weak ridging late week may support a brief period of lower precipitation coverage, models show a southern stream disturbance approaching the region by next weekend, which is reflected in the ongoing forecast as PoPs will be on an increasing trend by the end of the period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region throughout the TAF period as high pressure settles into the area. WNW winds will become northerly overnight and shift to the NE by Sunday morning, though winds will become onshore by Sunday afternoon at coastal sites as the sea breeze moves inland with speeds around 5-10 kts throughout the day.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry and warm weather will remain in place through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure then shifts out into the Atlantic by early next week as a low pressure system drives a cold front towards the northern Gulf waters. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front may approach advisory levels by Tuesday with seas around 2-4 ft into mid week.
In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the frontal passage. High pressure will then build back into the area briefly by Thursday with wind speeds decreasing and seas falling to 3 ft or less.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Drier air has moved into the region in the wake of a cold front and this will allow RH values to reach critically low levels through the remainder of the weekend, though wind speeds should remain below red flag criteria. Humidity values improve by next week as deeper moisture then moves back into the area. A cold front then approaches the area by mid week, bringing the potential for needed rain across the area with scattered showers and storms, though a few strong to severe storms will also be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 90 75 92 / 0 10 0 30 FMY 71 92 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 GIF 67 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 40 SRQ 70 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 62 91 67 95 / 0 10 0 30 SPG 75 90 77 90 / 0 10 0 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Punta Gorda
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Sat -- 12:55 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:01 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Punta Gorda, Charlotte Harbor, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Pass
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Sat -- 03:09 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.73 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:53 PM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     -3.13 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots

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