Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlotte Harbor, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 090432 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1232 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1154 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 An U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. An inverted trough/U/L low will track across the peninsula early/middle of next week likely enhancing convection across the region.

At the surface, weak high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. This flow promotes highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida each day. The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland during the day with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the late afternoon/early evening hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light east/northeast flow. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing shower/thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon.

Only exception is this morning where an outflow boundary across north Florida will create higher pops across the extreme northern forecast area as it sags south close to Levy county with a chance of showers and storms. Otherwise, a wedge of drier air aloft combined with onshore flow on the north side of the ridge axis will likely keep pops on the low side across the nature coast through Saturday.

On Sunday, increasing deep layer moisture along with the approach of the U/L inverted trough from the east will increase pops across west central and southwest Florida. Highest pops should remain over the interior and southwest Florida.

Early next week, increasing south to southwest boundary layer flow combined with the U/L low aloft and deep tropical moisture advecting over the forecast area will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms Monday and Tuesday to the entire region. This could potentially carry over into Wednesday...however the U/L low may push far enough west of the forecast area on Wednesday for drier air aloft to advect over the Florida peninsula from the east which would decrease pops across the region.
Show more