Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manasota Key, FL

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas of MVFR ceilings will gradually lift this morning.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening which could cause more MVFR/local IFR conditions. Winds will generally remain out of the east during the period, except shifting to northwest to north close to the coast as the sea breeze sets up this afternoon. This will likely be limited to only TPA, PIE, and SRQ, with all the other TAF sites remaining predominantly easterly.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Upper ridging extends from the western gulf northeastward through the southeast U.S. and into New England. On the surface, high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest through GA/AL and into the central gulf. A weak stationary frontal boundary extends through the western Atlantic to the east coast of Florida and will wash out through the day as it pushes farther south. Abundant moisture with PWAT between 1.3 - 1.5 inches will support some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. A predominant easterly low level wind flow will allow for showers and storms to move from east to west later this afternoon/evening with the highest coverage south of the I-4 corridor.

By Wednesday morning, the stationary front is completely washed out and high pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges southwest across Florida and will usher in some slightly drier air with PWAT dropping below 1 inch. This will equate to near zero rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. A slight uptick in moisture will move into the area on Friday with PWAT back up to 1.0 - 1.2 inches, but showers and storms will still be limited to around 10-20 percent at best. Moisture continues to increase on Saturday and Sunday with PWAT back up around 1.3 - 1.5 inches, which will equate to even higher shower and storm chances to around 30-50 percent over the weekend and into the first half of next week. Daytime highs will top out in the mid 80's close to the coast and upper 80's to low 90's elsewhere. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60's to around 70 each night.

MARINE
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A predominant east through southeast wind flow will prevail over the eastern gulf waters as high pressure to the north ridges across Florida and into the gulf. An onshore flow can be expected close to the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze sets up. Some showers and storms that do develop during the afternoon today will move over the gulf waters late afternoon into the evening. Lower rain chances expected on Wednesday and Thursday, then slowly increasing Friday and into the weekend. Winds will generally stay 15 knots or less and seas around 1-3 feet through the period with no headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Abundant moisture will keep RH values above critical levels today.
Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible later this afternoon and evening moving from east to west with the highest coverage south of the I-4 corridor. Some drier air will filter into the region on Wednesday and Thursday with some pockets of critical RH values at or below 35 percent possible. Winds are expected to stay below 15 mph, so not Red Flag Warning will be needed. Moisture increases on Friday and into the weekend as does the rain and storm chances. No other fire weather concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 68 90 69 / 40 10 0 0 FMY 90 64 90 66 / 60 10 0 0 GIF 86 62 88 63 / 30 0 0 0 SRQ 88 65 89 66 / 40 10 0 0 BKV 89 59 90 59 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 87 69 88 69 / 40 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.