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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 916 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 916 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis.. Northeast winds at cautionary levels continue with the evening surge, then gradually subside by morning. Northeast flow continues under high pressure through the end of the week. Winds will then shift to the northwest behind a cold front Saturday.

FXUS62 KTBW 042321 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 721 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Quick passing showers have continued through the afternoon across the interior and SWFL. As the sun now sets, these showers are quickly diminishing in coverage. While a few more could meander through over the next couple hours, activity should largely be winding down.

The only other point of note is the wind. As the sun sets, coastal areas could see a brief increase in wind speeds before diminishing overnight. This is typical with easterly flow as daily resistance fades with the loss of daytime heating.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Smoke/haze still causing some minor visibility restrictions across the northern zones this afternoon, but has cleared out elsewhere.
Some showers have moved into the interior and south from the east coast as well. These will continue through the early evening and then dissipate.

Ridging will continue across the eastern US and down across the state, keeping the NE flow in place through the end of the week while an upper low sits to the west of the state. Stray showers will again be possible over the interior each afternoon coming in from the east coast. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south.

A mostly dry cold front will then move through the area Friday night and Saturday with an upper trough moving over the eastern US and the low lifting into it. Cooler and drier air will move into the area behind the front for Sunday and Monday before conditions start to moderate through mid-week as high pressure moves over the state. A 20-30 percent rain chance will be in place for Tuesday afternoon, with scattered chances across the area for Wednesday. Monday morning will be the coolest, but lows in the mid to upper 50s north, and in the lower to mid 60s inland to mid 60s to lower 70s coastal central and south will be possible Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Highs generally in the lower to mid 80s. Slightly warmer temps for Wednesday as conditions continue to moderate.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

No major aviation concerns for the next few days as a drier ENE flow remains in place. However, quick passing showers will be possible again tomorrow afternoon primarily across the interior and SWFL.
With only a minimal impact (and less than a 10% chance at any terminal), have elected to omit mention.

MARINE
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

NE flow will continue to be in place across the waters through the end of the week under high pressure. Winds then turn to the NW behind a dry cold front Saturday and continue from the N/NW Sunday. Winds will increase for a few hours this evening with the easterly surge, and will raise an SCEC for this, but no headlines expected thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

No concerns for the next few days with relative humidities remaining well above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 91 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 90 72 89 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 71 90 71 89 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 72 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 68 91 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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El Jobean
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Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

El Jobean, Myakka River, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Pass
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Wed -- 01:52 AM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EDT     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:29 PM EDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:17 PM EDT     0.55 knots Min Flood
Wed -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots

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