Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jupiter Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday July 12, 2020 2:54 AM EDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 928 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 928 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis..Above normal coverage of showers and storms will continue this weekend and early next week. West to northwest steering winds will be push numerous showers and lightning storms across the intracoastal and nearshore atlantic waters each afternoon and early evening. Locally higher winds and seas along with lightning can be expected from mid afternoon into nightfall where storms move across the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, july 10th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jupiter Island, FL
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location: 27.04, -80.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 120111 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 910 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE.

Last of the diurnal convection over NW Osceola Co. has settled S-SW into Polk and weakened over the past hour. A swath of light debris rain extending NE from this across Orange and N Osceola/Brevard Cos. continues to slowly weaken, and will dissipate by midnight, if not by 11 PM. Looking closely at radar/IR sat trends w/r/t convective redevelopment over the northern peninsula . does not appear to be as robust as the past two nights, and may not hold together long enough to reach the northern CWA. May be able to remove POPs, even across the far north, for the rest of tonight. However will make that final determination in another hour or so. The most pessimistic scenario appears to be the need a small (20) POP for a few hrs past midnight.

AVIATION. Light rain south of ISM-MCO to near TIX dissipating by around 02Z. Otherwise VFR/BKN-OVC250 with SW winds 5-7mph thru ~14Z For Sun. winds SW/WSW 8-9KT, with a late sea breeze along the coastal corridor after 2021Z. Included VCTS starting at 16Z for SFB/MCO/ISM; 18Z for the TIX-SUA corridor. POPs low enough to leave out VCSH/VCTS for LEE-DAB, and marginal for including TEMPO groups for MLB-SUA, for the time being.

MARINE. Offshore flow continues, with winds at buoys 009/010 running a bit higher than the past several nights (15-17kt and near 25kt respectively) over the past 1-2hr. Still, seas have been only about 2-2.5ft within 20nm of the coast and ~3ft well beyond 20nm. Wind enhancement may be due to some enhancement on the west side of the trough due to widespread convection along its axis. Plan to nudge winds up by around 5kt over the offshore legs tonight. However the inherited forecast of 2-3ft near shore and around 3ft offshore still looks to be OK, given the persistent high bias of the wave models over the offshore legs in the offshore pattern that has been prevalent since late spring. Seas are forecast to build by about a foot tomorrow.

Previous Discussion. /issued 331 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

Hot and muggy this afternoon. Even as rain drops temps back into the upper 80s it'll stay uncomfortably muggy due to high humidity. Most have seen peak heat indices around 105-107, with Melbourne/Ft. Pierce reaching heat index of 108-110 for a short period early afternoon. These heat index values are typical for July in central FL, and a Heat Advisory was not warranted today for such a short duration of heat indices above 108.

High rain chances persist through sunset, especially along the coast where showers and lightning storms likely to linger to or just past sunset. Storms to push offshore by late evening with dry conditions across the region after midnight. Mild overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Monday . (Modified Previous Discussion) Florida is centered between two 500mb ridges, over the Atlantic and western TX, with the southernmost reach of a deep upper trough extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and associated surface front will back westerly winds to the southwest, offering a gradual increase in high temperatures both Sunday and Monday, approaching the mid 90s near the coast. Combined with high humidity levels will create feels like temperatures in the low to mid 100s. Heat relief will reside overnight, with lows dropping to the low to mid 70s each night.

The surface front will also bring in drier low/mid-level air, especially along and north of I-4 on Sunday, and farther south towards Melbourne area on Monday. The westerly wind component continues to favor shower and storm development along the coast, though the deeper moisture to be confined south of the Orlando Metro area. This leads to a north/south rain chance gradient ranging from 30-40 percent along and north of I-4 to 50-60 percent from Lake Okeechobee to Treasure Coast on Sunday.

Monday's setup mimics Sunday, however slightly lower coverage is anticipated as drier air drags southward. Only around a 20-30 percent rain chance from Orlando to Titusville north. The higher threat for afternoon lightning storms confined from Yeehaw Junction to Vero Beach south, around 50 percent chance of rain.

Tuesday-Friday . (Previous Discussion) A pattern shift will arrive mid- week as the Atlantic ridge axis builds closer to the peninsula, due to the eroding of the upper trough and development of upper ridge across the Midwest and Deep South. Locally, this will transition the period of westerly flow to easterly, with rain chances favoring interior locations from Wednesday onward.

Guidance still running a bit high with rain chances, so have capped near 60-70 percent through the remainder of the week. Anticipate continued sea breeze and boundary driven convection, with typical coverage seen in mid July. The shift in the wind pattern will aid in temperature regulation, with highs in the mid 90s on Wednesday creeping lower each day through the end of the week, with seasonal low 90s returning. Nighttime lows hold steady in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION.

Numerous ongoing lightning storms necessitate a long window for VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs once again. Included a TEMPO with MVFR CIGS/VIS through 20/21Z for inland sites, and through 22Z along the coast. Additional showers and storms will be possible through midnight. VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Tomorrow, winds will be SSW/WSW around 10KT. Included VCSH starting at 14/15Z for the interior sites.

MARINE.

Rest of Today-Tonight . Numerous offshore moving lightning storms are ongoing and are expected to persist into this evening. These storms will impact most of the east central Florida Intracoastal Waterway and nearshore Atlantic waters. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 40 knots and frequent lightning strikes. After storms dissipate this evening, southwest winds 10-15 knots overnight with seas 2 feet nearshore and up to 3 feet offshore.

Sunday-Thursday . Generally favorable marine conditions persist through midweek as surface ridge axis remains south of our area. This maintains westerly flow regime across the Atlantic waters. Wind shifts expected each day with the development of the sea breeze circulation, but generally remaining at 10-15 kts. Seas of 2-3 feet may build slightly up to 4 feet in the far offshore waters on Sunday into Monday, but diminish through midweek. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected to develop in the early to mid afternoon, lasting through the evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 75 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 76 94 75 95 / 20 40 10 30 MLB 76 91 75 92 / 30 50 20 40 VRB 76 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 50 LEE 76 94 75 95 / 20 20 0 20 SFB 76 94 76 96 / 20 30 10 20 ORL 77 94 76 96 / 20 40 10 30 FPR 75 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

Cristaldi/Sedlock/Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 30 mi55 min SSW 8 G 11 82°F 85°F1012.6 hPa (-1.6)
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 36 mi59 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL12 mi60 minWSW 610.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W3W5W4W4W4W4NW8NW8W6----SE64SE8S5S5S5SW5SW4SW6S6SW7SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Hobe Sound, Jupiter Island, Florida
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Hobe Sound
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:17 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.51.61.51.210.70.40.30.30.40.711.31.51.41.31.10.90.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tequesta, North Fork, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Tequesta
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:39 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:58 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.51.61.41.20.90.70.40.30.30.40.711.31.51.41.31.10.90.60.50.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.