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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 407 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 407 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..A large high pressure ridge will settle across the southeast u.s. And north florida through early Thursday morning, then shift east into the adjacent western atlantic Friday through Saturday. In response, north winds will veer east tonight, further veering southeast Thursday night.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, november 27th.
45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 290906 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 406 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Today...High cloudiness from Cape Canaveral/ Kissimmee south will continue to move southward and clear as the moisture profile temporarily dries aloft. North surface winds continue to advect a cool, dry low level airmass across east central Florida this morning with dewpoints observed in the upper 30s along and north of the I-4 corridor. A cold start to the morning is expected, particularly across the far north interior where temperatures will fall into the upper 30s. North winds around 5-10 mph will produce wind chills into the mid 30s across portions of northern Lake and northwest Volusia around sunrise. These areas could also see development of patchy frost, particularly in prone wind-sheltered areas. Elsewhere, morning temperatures will mostly range the low to mid 40s. However, lingering cloud cover and a slight onshore wind component will keep the Treasure Coast warmer with temperatures only dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies this afternoon while remaining below seasonal values. Afternoon highs are forecast to range the low to mid 60s across the north, rising into the low to mid 70s across the south. A few fair weather cu could develop along the Treasure Coast with a slight onshore flow component continuing in the low levels. The mid level profile remains much too dry to support any precip, and no rainfall is forecast.

Tonight...North winds begin to veer northeast into sunrise as high pressure moves eastward. Increasing moisture aloft should allow for the return of high cloudiness, particularly across the north.
Another cool morning is expected Thursday while remaining warmer than temperatures observed today. The coolest areas will again be across the northwest interior with lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Upper 40s stretch southwestward along I-4 and into Osceola county. Low 50s across Brevard, Okeechobee and the inland Treasure coast. Mid to upper 50s along the immediate Treasure Coast.

Thursday-Friday...High pressure north of the area shifts farther eastward into the open Atlantic, with low level flow veering to the east to southeast. This will act to modify the dry/cool airmass in place, with temperatures rapidly warming through late week. Highs in the 70s on Thursday will rise to the low to mid 80s on Friday. Lows on Thursday night will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s most areas, and then will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday night. The onshore flow does gradually lead to an increase in moisture, but for the most part it looks to remain dry over land, with any isolated showers limited to the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge aloft strengthens across Cuba and extends across south Florida, with a frontal boundary across the southeast U.S. inching slowly toward Florida through the weekend. While moisture will continue to increase in the low level southerly flow, with PW values rising to 1.8-1.9 inches by Saturday, the ridge will act to keep rain chances relatively low (around 20-30 percent) and also lead to warmer than normal conditions Saturday and Sunday.
Isolated storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon hours each day, as model guidance does show an increase in instability through the weekend. Highs will continue to reach the low to mid 80s during the weekend, with overnight lows still in the mid to upper 60s.

Model guidance in fairly good agreement showing the cold front then pushing through the area into Monday-Monday night time frame with rain chances around 20-40 percent on Monday. Conditions then turn drier and cooler behind the front into Tuesday. Highs on Monday forecast to range from the 70s near to north of Orlando and low to mid 80s south, then in the 70s across the entire area on Tuesday.
Lows on Monday night forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s north of Orlando and low to mid 60s farther south.

MARINE
Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Today-Tonight...North winds around 10-15 kts will prevail today, veering east tonight as high pressure moves eastward. Seas of 5 ft in the Gulf Stream early this morning diminish to around 4 ft by sunrise. Seas become widely 2-3 ft overnight. No rainfall is forecast.

Thursday-Sunday...Winds will continue to veer through late week into the weekend as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward into the open Atlantic and a cold front slowly approaches Florida later into the weekend. E/SE winds up to 10-15 knots late week, become S/SW into the weekend. Seas 2-3 feet Thursday will increase to 2-4 feet Friday and remain 2-4 feet through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Light north winds will continue to advect a cool, dry airmass into east central Florida today. Min RH values are forecast to drop near 35 percent across the far north interior this afternoon while winds remain below 10 mph.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR through the period. High cloudiness from ISM/TIX south will continue to move southward and erode. North winds prevail, increasing to around 7-9 kts this afternoon. A slight NNW wind shift at Treasure Coast terminals this afternoon. High clouds return late this afternoon into the overnight, particularly across the north.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 405 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage through this weekend. Near Geneva above Lake Harney, the river will remain in Action Stage through this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 49 71 60 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 66 48 74 60 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 69 56 76 65 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 72 57 78 65 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 63 44 73 59 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 65 46 74 60 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 66 49 75 61 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 72 58 78 66 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Hobe Sound
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:13 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:47 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:03 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hobe Sound, Jupiter Island, Florida, Tide feet

Tequesta
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:14 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:01 AM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:01 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tequesta, North Fork, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

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