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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 401 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Lake waters choppy.
Tue..N ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night through Fri..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E ne winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sat and Sat night..E se winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure will build in over the fl peninsula today in the wake of the cold front. Northerly winds will gradually increase up to 20 to 25 kts and turn northeasterly tonight into Tuesday. Seas will also gradually build up in excess of 7 feet by this evening, resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Northeasterly winds of near gale strength will persist across the local waters for much of the week.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 6 to 9 feet by Tuesday. Seas could exceed 10 feet later this week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMLB 112114 CCA AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 408 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

Current-Tuesday... High pressure will build across the southeastern US through the time period, allowing for dry conditions to continue.
Northerly winds around 10 mph (with higher gusts along the coast possible) this afternoon will decrease to generally below 10 mph overnight, especially across the interior. Breezy conditions will develop Monday afternoon as winds veer northeast and increase to 10- 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible.

Mostly clear skies this afternoon will become partly cloudy overnight and cloudy by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be below normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Another cooler night in store for east central FL tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s, except low 40s across the traditionally cooler locations across Lake and northern Volusia counties. After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s for Tuesday's afternoon high temperatures.

Tuesday Night-Friday (Modified Previous)...High pressure will build toward the Mid-Atlantic region, with flow veering onshore and strengthening through mid to late week as pressure gradient tightens between strong high to the north and stalled front south of FL. This will lead to breezy to windy conditions through much of the week, with onshore flow also gradually increasing moisture across the area. It will remain dry into Tuesday, but rain chances will begin to rise through the rest of the week, as coverage of onshore moving showers increases across the area. Conditions should remain dry across most of the interior on Wednesday, with PoPs up to 30-50 percent along the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, and 20 percent through the rest of the coastal counties. Chance PoPs (around 30-50 percent) then expand northward across the area through the remainder of the week. Greatest rain chances through the period will remain focused along the Treasure Coast. There will be the potential for some localized heavy rainfall across southern portions of the Treasure Coast from Wed-Thu. There remains a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Martin and southeast St. Lucie counties both days, but models are coming into better agreement for the highest rainfall amounts to be focused to the south.

Skies will be partly cloudy to start on Tuesday, but mostly cloudy conditions will then prevail through much of the week. Onshore flow will lead to an increase in max temps to the 70s on Tuesday, and then cloud cover will generally keep highs in the 70s for the rest of the week. Warming trend will also impact overnight lows, with values back in the 60s across much of the area.

Stronger onshore flow into mid to late week will build seas across the Atlantic waters, leading to hazardous surf conditions, including higher risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches.
Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week, especially around the morning high tides.

Saturday-Sunday (Modified Previous)...Forecast remains uncertain into the weekend, as model guidance continues to diverge in their solutions of developing low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico (along stalled frontal boundary). GFS continues to be faster then the ECM with formation of the low 12-24 hours sooner, lifting the low to the northeast and across north FL into Saturday night and Sunday. The ECM on the other hand keeps the low further south before turning north and tracking across south Florida. Both solutions do indicate a period of unsettled weather and much wetter conditions into the weekend. For now, chance PoPs up to 30-50 percent continue for the weekend. Highs remain in the 70s with overnight lows generally in the 60s.

MARINE
Issued at 405 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Current-Tuesday... Poor to hazardous marine conditions continue.
High pressure will build across the southeast US, brining dry conditions across the local waters into tonight. North to northwest winds 20-25 knots this afternoon will veer to the north to northeast overnight and slacken slightly to 15-20 knots, with northeast winds persisting through Tuesday. Seas 4-5ft in the nearshore waters, and 6- 7ft in the Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the offshore waters and the nearshore waters of the Treasure Coast tonight, with the offshore Volusia waters dropping off after 3 AM Tuesday.

Tuesday Night-Friday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue into Tuesday with winds veering onshore as high pressure builds toward the Mid-Atlantic states. NE winds will range from 15- 20 knots, with seas remaining up to 6-7 feet over the gulf stream and 4-5 feet nearshore. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters of Brevard County and across the Treasure Coast waters on Tuesday.

Boating conditions will then deteriorate further through mid to late week as onshore flow strengthens between strong high pressure to the north of the area, and stalled front south of FL. Gale conditions will be possible as early as Wednesday evening and continuing through the rest of the week as easterly winds are forecast to increase up to 25-30 knots, with gusts up to 40 knots. This stronger onshore flow combined with a long easterly fetch will lead to significant increases in seas, with wave heights building from 5-7 feet Tuesday up to 10-15 feet into Thursday-Friday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure will build across the southeast US will keep conditions dry through the period.
Breezy northerly flow this afternoon will slacken overnight, especially across inland terminals with some breezy conditions lingering along the coast. Winds will then veer to the northeast by mid morning and increase to 10-15 KT by the afternoon with gusts up to 20 KT, especially along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 47 69 61 72 / 0 0 10 20 MCO 49 71 60 74 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 52 74 65 76 / 10 0 10 20 VRB 54 75 66 77 / 10 0 10 20 LEE 43 69 56 73 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 47 71 59 75 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 49 71 60 75 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 55 75 66 76 / 10 0 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

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North Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:50 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:17 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

South Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:54 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:42 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:17 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:28 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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