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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southeast Arcadia, FL

June 25, 2024 5:01 AM EDT (09:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 10:49 PM   Moonset 9:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 241 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

This afternoon - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers early, then numerous showers late.

Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening.

Tuesday - West winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.

Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening.

Friday - Southwest winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 241 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Synopsis - Our southerly winds that we have been experiencing over the weekend and today will start to shift westerly overnight and remain that way through Thursday. Winds speeds will generally stay at or below 10 knots. The main marine hazard through the period will be overnight and early morning showers and Thunderstorms that should form along the land breeze.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southeast Arcadia, FL
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Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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865 FXUS62 KTBW 250711 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 311 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A strong U/L ridge over the southern plains and desert southwest, which extends across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, will continue to gradually retrograde over the next couple of days.
A weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop along the eastern seaboard which will allow a weak U/L trough to sink south over the Florida peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. An associated U/L disturbance will also approach north Florida on Thursday and may enhance shower/thunderstorm activity across the northern nature coast.

A bit of uncertainty in the longer range. Friday and Friday night, a S/W disturbance will slide across the northern plains and northern Mississippi Valley inducing ridging downstream across the southern Mississippi river valley and southeast U.S. Although this will act to fill the east coast trough, a weakness may remain over the Florida peninsula. This could effectively trap a pool of deeper moisture over the region which would continue the pattern of scattered/numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
If the weakness does develop, the U/L ridge will finally take hold over the forecast area early next week which would trim back pops a bit.

At the surface, weak westerly flow is expected to develop today.
This will promote scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop along the coast during the morning hours, spreading inland and increasing in areal coverage during the afternoon. The relatively weak flow will continue the potential for slow moving storms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding of streets and poor drainage areas. Tonight, the westerly flow will likely allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over portions of the near shore waters late tonight which will advect locally onshore the coastal counties during the early morning hours...again spreading inland and during the afternoon hours.
Similar pattern on Thursday with the caveat for higher pops possible across the northern nature coast as the U/L disturbance moves over the southeast U.S enhancing large scale lift in that region.

As has been mentioned, quite a bit of uncertainty for the forecast over the weekend. Boundary layer flow looks like it will weaken as the gradient collapses...which is contrary to guidance 24 hours ago. With potential pool of residual deep layer moisture over the forecast area, the combination of the two would promote the west coast sea breeze boundary to push very slowly inland with scattered showers/thunderstorms developing during the late morning/early afternoon hours over the coastal counties. Outflow boundaries from initial convection would likely play a role in further convective initiation as they intersect while pushing inland. The weak flow would also provide the potential for boundaries pushing back toward the coast late in the day with additional late day/evening showers and thunderstorms. The weak flow will also create likelihood of locally heavy rain. Again, highly uncertain forecast over the weekend.

By next week, the U/L ridge is expected to build back over the region. The increasing large scale subsidence will cause daytime temperatures to climb several degrees and will suppress convection a bit, but would still expect scattered mid/late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, gradually dissipating during the evening hours.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Predominately VFR conditions will prevail. However, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the near shore waters late tonight and move locally onshore with LCL MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. Most likely terminals to be impacted would be FMY/RSW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours and may impact all terminals with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. The shower/thunderstorm activity will push slowly inland and may impact LAL by mid afternoon. Thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

MARINE
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Winds and seas expected to remain below SCEC levels through the week as relatively weak westerly flow will prevail. Main hazard will be locally gusty winds and rough seas due to thunderstorms, primarily during the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 No fire weather hazards are expected through the week as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 79 91 79 / 40 40 60 20 FMY 90 77 90 78 / 60 50 60 20 GIF 94 76 92 76 / 70 40 60 20 SRQ 90 78 90 79 / 50 50 60 30 BKV 92 74 91 75 / 40 30 50 20 SPG 92 82 91 82 / 40 50 60 30

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 24 mi62 minENE 2.9G4.1 78°F 85°F29.9278°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 35 mi44 minSE 2.9G4.1 78°F 86°F29.94
PMAF1 46 mi44 min 78°F 88°F29.93
MTBF1 48 mi44 minE 2.9G8 82°F 29.9176°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 49 mi87 minN 5.8G7.8 84°F 86°F29.9384°F


Wind History for Fort Myers, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPGD PUNTA GORDA,FL 15 sm8 minE 0310 smA Few Clouds77°F75°F94%29.95
KVNC VENICE MUNI,FL 24 sm6 minE 0310 smClear79°F79°F100%29.93
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Wind History graph: PGD
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Shell Point, Peace River, Florida
   
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Shell Point
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Tue -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shell Point, Peace River, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
-0.2
2
am
-0.3
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.7
7
am
1
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.3
6
pm
2.4
7
pm
2.4
8
pm
2.3
9
pm
1.9
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.1


Tide / Current for Punta Gorda, Charlotte Harbor, Florida
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Punta Gorda
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Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Punta Gorda, Charlotte Harbor, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
-0.1
1
am
-0.3
2
am
-0.2
3
am
-0
4
am
0.3
5
am
0.6
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.2
9
am
1.2
10
am
1.2
11
am
1.2
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.5
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.2
6
pm
2.3
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Tampa Bay Area, FL,




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