Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Salerno, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridging over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis north of Florida, across the Southeast US today.
Easterly winds prevail, increasing to around 15 mph this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with wind gusts 20-25 mph. Rain chances begin to increase slightly south of Orlando (20-30%), as PWATs build from <1" to up to 1.4-1.6" by late afternoon. However, a dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to keep the highest PoPs confined to the western half of the peninsula.

While moisture increases today, lingering dry air in the mid- levels maintains DCAPE values near 900-1000 J/kg across southern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, though this will discourage updraft development overall, a few strong wind gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms. 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could also lead to small hail. Peak chances will occur this afternoon, though a few to scattered showers and a storm or two will remain possible along the coast overnight as cells develop over the Atlantic and drift onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Highs in the upper 80s along the coast rise into the lower 90s over the interior. Warm overnight lows in the 70s will remain near 80 along the coast.

Tuesday-Monday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the weekend and into early next week. The ridge axis remains well north of Florida, helping to fend off a cold front mid to late week. Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers near to north of the Bahamas. It's essentially a persistence forecast through the period, as onshore flow continues to prevail. The only changes are a slight shift to predominantly SE flow from E this weekend and an increase in moisture during the same timeframe.

Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through the end of the work week. A prevailing easterly sea breeze will increase winds to around 15 mph each afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph. The daily sea breeze collision will favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that is where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours. However, could see overnight showers and perhaps a storm drift onshore each night, mainly along the Treasure Coast, as they develop over the Atlantic waters.
Lingering drier air in the mid-levels will inhibit updraft development, but could lead to a few strong wind gusts (~50 mph)
in any storms that manage to develop, especially along the collision.

Models are in good agreement that a slug of moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.8") will overspread the peninsula along SE flow late in the period. PoPs respond accordingly, increasing from 30-50% to 50-70% for Memorial Day Weekend. However, still plenty of time to watch how things unfold. Regardless, high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 this week, while onshore flow keeps lows in the 70s, possibly near 80 along the immediate coast.

MARINE
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure remains offshore from the eastern US coast through the work week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area.
Thus, onshore flow will continue through the period, increasing to around 10-15 kts each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions, with the exception of this evening into Tuesday morning, when winds across the offshore waters increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to 5 ft. Otherwise, seas 2-4 ft.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, though onshore flow will prevent any drift back towards the east coast. Instead, the best chances for the Atlantic waters are expected during the evening and overnight hours, when cells may occasionally drift onshore.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Continued SHRA/TS on the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but activity should gradually diminish. Otherwise, deep ESE flow up to 15 kt continues with VFR prevailing. Few additional showers around DAB/TIX are favored in the guidance late tonight. Low confidence if this makes it into MCO tomorrow morning/midday, will need to monitor trends.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through this week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Onshore flow will prevail, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon, with moisture increasing into the weekend. While onshore flow will keep most of the area well above any RH concerns, min RH west of Orlando could fall to between 45 to 50% during the heat of the day through much of the work week. Conditions will be fire sensitive in the afternoons, due to breezy winds and occasional lightning strikes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 86 74 87 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 10 30 SFB 73 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.