Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buckhead Ridge, FL

FXUS62 KMFL 151721 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 121 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

As we head into the middle of the week, the low off the Atlantic coast will traverse the south-central Florida Peninsula through the day today and advect into the Gulf for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center currently has this disturbance with a medium chance (40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and also a medium chance (40%) in the next 7 days.
However, regardless of development this system looks to move further away from the area towards the western Gulf in the next several days and not threaten South Florida, but it will still cause a couple more rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both today and tomorrow.

As far as the specific details on today's forecast, the center of the low looks to cross through just north of the Lake O area, resulting in a primarily S/SSE flow across South Florida. This will focus or steer most of the convection today across northern portions of the CWA and around Lake O, along with low level convergence being maximized in that area. Nevertheless, plenty of positive vorticity advection will stream across SE Florida with the low advecting across the Peninsula and will provide enough forcing for some scattered showers and storms across the rest of South Florida as well. This scenario will likely play itself out again on Wednesday, as the abundantly moist air mass (PWATs over 2.0" for most of the area) lingers and the disturbance will still be close enough to help provide some forcing for ascent. It is worth noting that the atmospheric column will be highly saturated and overall warmer given the southerly flow the next couple of days (500mb temps around -6C), so instability while still adequate will be lower and likely lead to convection stabilizing after an initial growth period. As a result, the potential for a widespread flooding risk looks low as stronger showers/storms fade out quicker or there would just be some light stratiform rain for a lengthy period. Can't completely rule out the chance that an isolated location or two could receive enough rainfall in a short time to observe flooding on roadways or in poor drainage areas, but that is likely to be a reasonable worst case scenario. Given the isolated risk, the Weather Prediction Center still maintains South Florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this was downgraded from a slight risk. Similarly, severe thunderstorm potential is also low, but an isolated storm or two can still reach severe criteria particularly via wind gusts from downbursts if the right setup materializes.

In terms of total rainfall potential for today and tomorrow, most areas are expected to see rainfall of under 1 inch both days, with a general high-end potential of 1-2", further hinting at very low potential for flooding across the region and any instance of flooding would most likely be in an isolated location or two.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s due to abundant cloud cover and rain, with perhaps a slight uptick to the upper 80s and near 90 across the region on Wednesday.
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