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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1000 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt after midnight. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late in the evening.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wed night and Thu..E ne winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
breezy southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft today, and 2 ft or less in the gulf. A few showers and storms could develop over the local waters this evening with the passage of the front.
winds will veer from the north northeast late tonight into Monday morning as the front clear our area, gradually increasing up to 20 to 25 kts by midweek. Seas will also gradually build up to 6 to 8 across all local waters by mid-week, resulting in hazardous boating conditions.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 6 to 9 feet by Tuesday. Seas could exceed 10 feet later this week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 101741 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1241 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

After a very pleasant start to the day under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, conditions will start becoming unsettled this evening as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. PWATs are forecast to gradually increase up to the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as the front nears our area, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60 percent chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late this evening and through the night. Can’t rule out a few stronger cells with gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area. It will also help keep daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast). Winds behind the front will remain breezy, with northerly to northeasterly winds 15-20 kts.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys for much of the extended period, supporting enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours across much of South FL. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50, 60, or even 70 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Generally VFR conditions and gusty S-SE flow through this afternoon before a front begins to move through the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the late afternoon and evening with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by convection. Short-fused AMDs for sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys may be needed. The front should be past the terminals by 09Z, with dry conditions and gusty northerly flow following behind it.

MARINE
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds at 15-20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight as the front pushes through.

Winds and seas will increase behind the front starting tonight and persisting through the end of the week, resulting in hazardous marine conditions across all local waters. Winds are forecast to increase up to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts by the middle of the week, while seas could build up to 6-11 feet across the Atlantic waters. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Gulf Waters starting 10PM tonight through at least Monday evening. For the local Atlantic waters, a Small Craft Advisory will also go into effect at 4AM tomorrow morning lasting through at least Tuesday evening.



BEACHES
Issued at 1224 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through this evening along the Atlantic Coast beaches. Gusty northerly winds developing behind the cold front moving through tonight will lead to hazardous beach conditions along the Atlantic Coast for much of the upcoming week with high rip current risks and high surf. Along the Gulf beaches, the rip current risk will be elevated on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 75 64 77 / 60 0 0 10 West Kendall 64 76 61 78 / 60 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 66 76 64 78 / 60 0 0 10 Homestead 66 76 64 78 / 60 0 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 65 74 64 77 / 60 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 65 74 64 77 / 60 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 65 75 63 78 / 60 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 63 72 63 76 / 60 0 0 10 Boca Raton 65 73 64 78 / 60 0 0 10 Naples 60 71 53 77 / 30 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

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North Fork
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

Stuart
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:40 AM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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