Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:58 PM   Moonset 2:39 AM

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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 kt. Lake waters smooth. Sat - S sw winds 5 kt. Lake waters smooth. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 5 kt. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. Showers with a chance of tstms. Sun night - W sw winds 5 kt. Lake waters smooth. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Mon - W winds around 5 kt becoming N nw in the evening. Lake waters smooth. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the afternoon. Mon night - N ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
a gentle to moderate southwesterly to southerly wind flow will prevail across the local waters tonight and over the weekend as low pressure systems track across the southeast us. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible over the local waters each day through the weekend.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 180526 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 126 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period.
However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the sea breeze.

Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days, the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal surface heating.

With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around 103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours.
General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid 90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Increased rain chances return for Sunday and early next week as an upper level short wave approaches and then crosses the area, and a surface front very slowly crosses the state of Florida Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few instances of urban flooding across the metro. A few storms may be on the strong to severe side, with damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

Upper levels ridging will try to build in early to mid next week, however the mid and upper level trough will linger just to the east of the peninsula. While PoPs decrease somewhat, daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will remain in the forecast each day, primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s through Monday. As the flow becomes more easterly the east coast metro will get a reprieve of a few degrees towards the middle of next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, while middle 90s will continue over interior and SW FL. Overnight lows will remain very warm in the 70s to around 80 through Monday and then lows will retreat towards normal values through the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours.
Restrictions due to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over the east coast terminals, primarily between 18 and 00Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend SErly on the east coast, sustained 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts while winds will become SWrly at KAPF this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 80 93 77 / 30 20 60 40 West Kendall 96 78 95 75 / 20 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 95 79 94 77 / 40 30 60 40 Homestead 94 79 94 76 / 20 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 77 / 40 30 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 93 79 92 76 / 40 30 70 50 Pembroke Pines 97 80 95 77 / 40 30 60 40 West Palm Beach 94 77 92 74 / 50 30 70 50 Boca Raton 94 79 92 74 / 40 30 70 50 Naples 92 79 91 77 / 0 20 40 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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North Fork
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Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

Stuart
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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