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GMZ231 Baffin Bay And Upper Laguna Madre-corpus Christi And Nueces Bays- 346 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tonight..North winds 25 to 30 knots, becoming 25 to 35 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters very rough.
Sunday..North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters rough to occasionally very rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.

GMZ200 346 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
weak to moderate southerly flow today will shift to the north this evening and increase overnight to gale force. This in response to an approaching cold front. A gale warning will go into effect tonight through tomorrow morning with small craft advisory conditions for several hours behind the gale warning. All waters including bays and waterways are included in the gale warning. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms have a moderate chance (30-60%) of occurring over the waters. Gale force winds will persist through Sunday, becoming weak to moderate by late Sunday afternoon. A weak to moderate offshore flow Sunday evening will become weak early Monday morning. A weak onshore flow will develop Monday. A weak to moderate onshore flow Monday night will increase to moderate Tuesday and moderate to strong Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

FXUS64 KCRP 091013 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 413 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Hazardous Marine conditions overnight with a Gale Warning in Effect

- Wind Advisory overnight for Padre Island

- Patchy to Areas of fog early this morning across South Texas

Currently have a mid-level low over western MN with the trough axis stretched across the Great Plains. The trough will move across TX today and overnight tonight, then east of the Mississippi by Sunday evening. Meanwhile our CWA will transition from under a zonal flow to a northwesterly flow aloft during the short term period. PVA associated with this system will brush our northeastern sector.

This system will also bring a strong cold front to South Texas. This "Dry" front is progged to slide across our region around 21Z Saturday to 03Z Sunday. Have maintained silent PoP's <15% across the region due to the lack of moisture with better chances over the waters where showers and thunderstorms have a moderate chance of occurring.

Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid 70s to low 80s.
After the front things will cool off by around 20 degrees to the low 60s across most of the region for tomorrow's high. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the mid to upper 40s. Brrr.

Hazards: The main hazard for our region will be from wind. The strong front and dry/cool air behind it will lead to dangerous marine conditions where a Gale Warning for vessels is in effect late Saturday into Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect early Sunday morning for strong winds blowing across the island.

Fog: Patchy to Areas of fog are expected this morning across South Texas. There's a medium (20-45%) chance for visibilities dropping below 1 mile this morning with sfc winds ~10+ mph and a low cloud deck being the limiting factors. Please be cautious while driving, allow extra space between vehicles and use low beams.

Marine: A Gale Warning will go into effect tonight through tomorrow morning with Small Craft Advisory conditions for several hours behind the Gale Warning. All waters including bays and waterways are included in the Gale Warning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have a moderate chance (30-60%) of occurring over the waters.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Strong chance (60-75%) for freezing temperatures early Monday morning for low-lying drainage areas in McMullen and Live Oak counties

- Increased rip current risk Wednesday and Thursday along with potential for minor coastal flooding

Surface high pressure will settle into the area for Sunday night.
With very dry air and light winds, expect radiational cooling will lead to some drainage areas over McMullen and Live Oak Counties seeing temperatures fall below freezing for a few hours Monday morning. NBM shows the probability of below freezing temperatures from 60-75 percent over these counties with lesser probabilities of 30-40 percent from Bee to Refugio Counties.

Onshore flow will return on Monday and increase on Tuesday with a slow warming trend. Easterly flow will lead to an increase in the moisture levels by Wednesday with GEFS/ECENS showing mean values of precipitable water up to 1.2-1.3 inches with a little lower over the Victoria Crossroads. An upper low will be near the Four Corners region Wednesday morning with a short wave trough over northern Mexico. Lift associated with this short wave trough will interact with the higher moisture over the region to provide scattered showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The upper low is expected to move eastward across the southern Rockies Thursday and into the central and southern plains Friday, although there are differences in the deterministic models on timing. Low level warm air advection will maintain a moderate chance for showers into Thursday and into Friday.

An easterly fetch across the northern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday will increase Wednesday and Thursday. This could lead to minor coastal flooding Wednesday and Thursday with rip current risk likely being high during this period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Main issues overnight will be the low clouds and fog that is already beginning to show at ALI and CRP. Uncertainty will be with the onset and how long the CIGS and VSBYs will remain MVFR to IFR.
ALI and VCT look to probably get and maintain IFR CIGS and VSBYs.
CRP look to have IFR CIGs, but may be able to continue MVFR VSBYs, but there is some uncertainty getting to IFR. COT and LRD look to fall into MVFR for the CIGs, with some uncertainty of getting IFR at LRD. COT looks like it has a better chance. By 15z/Sat it looks like things will start to lift, but the models are showing a MVFR cloud deck in the east for the afternoon, before the dry air moves in and mixes out the clouds for the evening.

MARINE
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Weak to moderate southerly flow today will shift to the north this evening and increase overnight to Gale force. This in response to an approaching cold front. A Gale Warning will go into effect tonight through tomorrow morning with Small Craft Advisory conditions for several hours behind the Gale Warning. All waters including bays and waterways are included in the Gale Warning.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have a moderate chance (30-60%) of occurring over the waters. Gale force winds will persist through Sunday, becoming weak to moderate by late Sunday afternoon. A weak to moderate offshore flow Sunday evening will become weak early Monday morning. A weak onshore flow will develop Monday. A weak to moderate onshore flow Monday night will increase to moderate Tuesday and moderate to strong/SCA conditions over the Gulf waters Tuesday night through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected from Tuesday night then scattered Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 81 49 63 35 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 78 45 61 31 / 10 10 0 0 Laredo 81 48 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 83 47 64 32 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 78 48 64 40 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 81 44 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 49 63 34 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 52 63 42 / 0 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

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Corpus Christi
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Sat -- 03:49 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM CST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:52 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Corpus Christi
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:50 AM CST     0.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas (2) (expired 1999-07-23), Tide feet

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Corpus Christi, TX,