Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sarita, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A hot, humid and increasingly unsettled pattern remains in place across South Texas as deep Gulf moisture continues to stream inland beneath persistent south/southeasterly flow. Observations from the 18Z launch already show PWATs climbing above seasonal norms (1.83" currently), and guidance indicates PWATs remaining between 1.8-2.2" through much of the period with the 99th percentile being around 2.0". This will provide a favorable environment for efficient rainfall production once convective development begins each day.

For today through Tuesday, mid-level ridging over the Gulf will still exert enough influence to limit widespread convection, though isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms have a 10- 20% chance to be realized across the region, primarily over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads where sea breeze interactions and weak perturbations aloft can locally enhance lift. Temperatures will remain well above normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s coast to upper 90s inland. Combined with dewpoints well into the 70s, afternoon heat indices will commonly range from around 100-110 degrees. Warm overnight lows around 80 degrees will provide limited nighttime relief.

Attention then turns to the middle and latter portion of the week as the synoptic pattern becomes increasingly favorable for more widespread convection. Global guidance continues to advertise a series of embedded shortwaves ejecting eastward from northern Mexico into Texas while a weak coastal trough develops over the western Gulf. Increasing upper divergence combined with deep tropical moisture should support expanding rain and storm coverage beginning Wednesday and continuing through at least Saturday.

Forecast confidence is increasing that several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect portions os South Texas during this period. While there remains uncertainty regarding exact placement of heavier rainfall corridors, ensemble guidance generally supports widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches through the end of the week, with isolated higher amounts possible where training convection develops. Given saturated soils are not currently a major concern, widespread flash flooding is not anticipated at this time; however, localized urban flooding, ponding on roadways and isolated flash flooding issues will be possible under stronger convective cores.

As a result, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall; generally including all of our CWA starting on Tuesday through the end of the workweek.

Severe weather potential currently appears limited overall due to modest deep-layer shear, though pockets of stronger instability may support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds. Currently severe thunderstorms are not expected and SPC has not included our region in a severe thunderstorm threat.

Hazardous beach and marine conditions will remain elevated through much of the forecast period. Persistent moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft at times, particularly across the offshore Gulf waters. Long- period swells and persistent southeasterly fetch will continue to support an elevated risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches.
Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out during times of higher astronomical tides, especially during the overnight and morning high tide cycles through midweek.

Looking ahead toward next weekend into early the following week, guidance suggests the unsettled pattern may persist as the subtropical ridge remains displaced east of the region while additional disturbances continue to translate across northern Mexico and Texas.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Similar to last night, MVFR ceilings are being observed right along the coast and will advect inland and impact CRP over the next few hours. Moisture is on the rise and we're seeing spotty showers across South Texas, mainly west, but short-term guidance is increasing in rain chances tonight. Added PROB30s to reflect the best time window when these spotty showers impact terminals.
The only storms visible on satellite are off the Sierra Madre mountains, and have struggled to make it to the Rio Grande. Did want to include a mention at LRD for the low chance the storms maintain their longevity. MVFR ceilings will become widespread tonight and continue into the morning hours Monday. Southeasterly winds will remain breezy, generally sustained 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots. Other than some light vsby reductions due to mist, no fog is expected with these stronger winds.

MARINE
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast flow will persist through much of the week as tighter pressure gradients remain across the western Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in place and these conditions are expected to persist through at least Monday morning; an extension of the advisory may be necessary later this week. Daily shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase beginning Wednesday with locally higher winds and seas near stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 80 91 80 90 / 20 20 20 10 Victoria 78 91 78 91 / 20 20 20 10 Laredo 79 100 79 99 / 20 20 20 10 Alice 79 94 79 94 / 20 20 20 10 Rockport 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 20 10 Cotulla 79 99 79 98 / 20 20 20 10 Kingsville 80 92 80 91 / 20 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 87 / 20 20 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Monday through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.