Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sarita, TX

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Key Message:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase through the week.

A fairly active pattern sets up for the long term forecast period as large scale troughing to the west shifts eastward. Several short waves are expected to bring rain chances for the latter half of the week. Chances will be low for Thursday as weak ridging remains over South Texas and the shortwave struggles to push energy this far south. By Friday into the weekend though, the short wave energy is stronger and farther south, thus we will see medium chances (40-60%)
for Friday through Sunday. At this time rainfall totals look to be mainly below an inch across most of the area, but with PWAT values rising above 1.5" by the end of the week, we could see localized higher amounts. We're still several days out from the best dynamics, so we'll likely see some adjustments in these amounts. NBM and ECMWF ensemble guidance both suggest a medium chance for above 1" qpf through this period, though GFS only indicates low probs.

Temperatures look very warm for the latter half of the week with 90s for much of the area away except for the Coastal Bend where southeasterly flow off the water will keep temperatures in the 80s.
The Rio Grande Plains will approach 100 Thursday. Combine this with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, we'll see heat index values top 100 for some areas. As clouds and rain chances increase, we'll drop temperatures back into the 80s for the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Most of the forecast area is VFR, with tempo MVFR. Only VCT at the moment is MVFR. However, the clouds are lifting/mixing out as the last of the system to the north moves toward the northeast.
However, we are looking at another cycle of low clouds moving in as the winds settle down, and the moisture begins to pool in the low levels. So after 03z, am expecting that most CIGS will be MVFR with tempo IFR. It is looking like VCT and CRP could drop to around 5 miles around 11 or 12z and that could last until about 14z. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon will be similar to the current day with clouds lifting and thinning by the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze will be accompanied by seas from around 3 to 5 feet and periods of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions into mid- week. Expect a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow Wednesday night, before weakening to gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Thursday through the weekend.
There is low to medium chances (20-50%) for shower and thunderstorms Friday through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

No fire weather concerns through mid- week. Moisture will increase Thursday through the weekend, negating fire weather concerns. Low shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Thursday will increase to medium Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 86 74 87 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 72 87 73 89 / 0 20 10 20 Laredo 75 98 73 97 / 10 10 10 30 Alice 73 92 72 92 / 0 10 10 10 Rockport 75 84 75 86 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 74 97 72 97 / 10 20 10 20 Kingsville 74 89 73 89 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 75 82 76 83 / 0 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.