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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 255 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 255 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..Onshore winds will freshen tonight and Saturday as high pressure moves farther offshore. Winds and seas will then increase Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms. Winds and seas remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, december 8th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 082036 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 336 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Tonight-Saturday...High pressure over the west Atlantic will continue to slowly slide E/NE through tonight and into Saturday with a low level southeasterly flow continuing across the area.
The onshore flow combined with a strong low level inversion is leading to a stratocu cloud deck across the region that is generating some isolated light showers and sprinkles toward the coast and Okeechobee County, as well as over the coastal waters.
Aloft, W/SW winds will continue to transport some mid-high level clouds across Florida, with some light showers and sprinkles possible with this increase in cloud cover as well. However, any measurable rainfall from this activity will be more likely later this evening and overnight across northern portions of east central Florida as much drier layer of air between 850-500mb continues to moisten. Any rainfall though will be very light, less than a tenth of an inch.

Low end rain chances, around 20-30 percent, will continue through tonight and into tomorrow, especially along the coast, as SE flow transports any isolated to scattered showers onshore. Greatest chance for these showers will be along the Treasure Coast. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue into tomorrow. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60s, with highs tomorrow warming up into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday-Monday (modified previous)...High pressure will continue to slide east-northeast over the western Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday into Monday. The cold front moves across the Deep Southeast Sunday, and into east central Florida Sunday evening. A 30-40kt southwesterly LLJ coupled with conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates, 500mb temps ~ -10/- 11C, low instability, and bulk shear up to 50-60kts will support the potential for strong to isolated severe storms by the late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

The greatest potential for strong storms exists from Osceola/Brevard counties northward. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to 50- 60mph, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. South winds Sunday morning increase and veer southwest into the afternoon.
Winds further veer north behind the cold front with gusts up to 20- 25mph. The cold front will move out of central Florida Monday morning with drier air moving in behind it. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s Sunday will become noticeably cooler behind the front with highs widely ranging the 60s Monday afternoon.

Tuesday-Thursday (modified previous)...High pressure will build over the midsouth and Ohio Valley through midweek. Flow veers east- northeast into Tuesday. Guidance signals that a weak trough will develop along the east coast of Florida with moisture increasing from the south through midweek. PWATs generally rise between 1.3- 1.8" Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances towards the Treasure Coast (PoPs ~30-50%). Breezy conditions are forecast with wind gusts up to 20-30 mph each afternoon, especially Thursday along the coast. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s to the north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne with the mid to upper 70s to the south. Lows drop into the mid to upper 40s inland Tuesday with 50s closer to the coast. Lows range the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday.



MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Tonight-Saturday...High pressure over the west Atlantic will continue a southeasterly flow over the coastal waters that will increase tonight into tomorrow. Wind speeds will range from 10-15 knots tonight, and increase up to 15-20 knots offshore of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast on Saturday, leading to poor boating conditions at least into the morning hours. Seas will continue to range from around 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the coastal waters.

Sunday-Tuesday (modified previous)...A cold front will sag southeast across the waters Sunday evening into Monday morning which will bring the potential for strong to isolated severe storms. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Any strong to severe storms that develop Sunday evening/early Monday will be capable of wind gusts up to 50kts, heavy rainfall, and cloud to water lighting strikes. South winds around 20kts Sunday veer to become northerly behind the cold front Monday, increasing to around 20-25kts. Winds further veer to become east-northeast around 15- 20kts Tuesday. Seas 3-4ft with up to 5 ft in the offshore (20-60nm) waters, before increasing to 4-6ft with up to 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream Monday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

While mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail tonight into Saturday, cigs are forecast to remain VFR. Some light precip will occur from higher cloud cover moving in from the west, mainly across northern terminals later this evening and overnight.
Isolated to scattered showers will also continue to be possible along the coast through tomorrow, and will have a better chance of producing brief tempo MVFR visibilities. SE winds will continue around 5 knots tonight and up to 8-11 knots on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 79 64 80 / 20 20 10 40 MCO 63 80 65 81 / 20 20 0 40 MLB 65 80 67 82 / 20 20 10 40 VRB 66 81 67 83 / 30 20 10 40 LEE 61 80 64 80 / 20 10 0 50 SFB 62 81 65 82 / 20 20 0 40 ORL 63 81 65 82 / 20 20 0 40 FPR 66 80 67 83 / 30 20 10 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Ankona
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ankona, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

Eden
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:12 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:32 PM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eden, Nettles Island, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

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