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GMZ250 Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas Out 20 Nm- 328 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect until 10 am cst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Today..North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet, occasionally seas up to 11 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet, occasionally seas up to 8 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally seas around 5 feet after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet, occasionally seas around 5 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet, occasionally seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 6 to 8 feet, occasionally seas up to 10 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 6 to 8 feet, occasionally seas up to 10 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 6 to 8 feet, occasionally seas up to 10 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 6 to 8 feet, occasionally seas up to 10 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 328 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Gale conditions will persist behind the cold front over the gulf waters until late morning. Winds will subside to moderate to strong north through the afternoon with small craft advisory conditions. A weak offshore flow will occur tonight as high pressure settles into the region and become weak onshore on Monday as high pressure moves east. Expect a weak to moderate onshore flow Monday night will strengthen through the week Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a possibility of small craft advisory conditions Tuesday night through Thursday night as the flow continues to increase.

FXUS64 KCRP 100947 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Windy to breezy conditions will persist over the coastal region this morning as high pressure builds into the area. Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 6 AM for the islands and coastal region south of Corpus Christi Bay. Temperatures will be much cooler from yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

The surface high pressure ridge will be along the coast tonight with winds becoming light. With clear skies, radiational cooling should be ideal. NBM shows the probability of temperatures getting below freezing at 50-70 percent over McMullen and Live Oak Counties.
The only possible fly in the ointment will be with the ridge along the coast, the surface winds could become light south to southeast which is not ideal for the development of drainage winds.
Will show freezing temperatures possible in this region, but not sure if will occur for more than 2 hours. Will hold off on any headlines for possible freeze warning tonight. A Special Weather Statement will be issued to cover possible freezing temperatures across the northern portion of south Texas. Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Monday as onshore flow develops.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Rip currents and Coastal Flooding possible Mid-week - Showers and thunderstorms Tues night - Friday Night

Mid term (Monday night - Tuesday night)...Temperatures are definitely on a rebound as the lows Monday night are in the 40s-50s and high Tuesday are back into the mid 70s. PWAT values are low with values less then the Median of 0.89". However, the models are increasing the moisture overnight. Not sure that the chances should increase much Tuesday night, but will leave the NBM numbers for now.
P-ETSS levels are increasing with the northeast winds. Because of the onshore flow, we are seeing the NWPS wave periods increase as well. Through Tuesday night however, the levels at Aransas Pass are still below 1.0' it's in the longer term where we may have issues, more on that in a bit.

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday night)...PWAT values move up to around 1.5" Wednesday through Thursday, which is over the 90th percentile. The models have chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the Coastal Plains. Looking at the dynamics, there is a 500 mb trough that is pushing into the region with a sfc trough that is in the lee of the mountains in Mexico. This looks to drive the moisture increase as the moisture is pushed up the Rio Grande Plains, an into the 500 mb trough. As the trough moves into South Texas, would expect that showers and some thunderstorms would result. Thursday, a 500 mb cut off low drops into the trough, and the whole system moves into the Gulf on Saturday night. NBM has likely (55-60% chance) pops Thursday and Friday. The pops fall into the chance (30-40%) Friday and below 20% by Saturday morning. Dry on Saturday.

PETSS goes out Wednesday and Thursday with the chance for pushing over over 1.5 ft likely, but the wave periods on Wednesday are 8 sec (usually the threshold we need to get the tide to the dunes on the beach), 9 seconds on Thursday, and 10-11 seconds on Friday. working through our local worksheet, for each day we have a high risk for rip currents, and likely that we would get minor coastal flooding.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

With the cold front offshore, and high pressure building into the region, skies will begin to clear overnight. CIGs and VSBYs are already VFR and will continue through 06z/Mon. Winds will be the main issue overnight as the tightened gradient will bring gusts to 30 knots mainly in the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Plains.
The Brush Country will see gusts to 25 knots. By late morning (16z), expect the winds to diminish as the pressure gradient slackens going into Sunday night.

MARINE
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Gale conditions will persist behind the cold front over the Gulf waters until late morning. Winds will subside to moderate to strong north with SCA conditions through the afternoon. SCA has been issued for today after Gale Warning expiration. A weak offshore flow will occur tonight as high pressure settles into the region and become weak onshore on Monday as high pressure moves east.

Monday night expect a weak to moderate northeast flow which looks to begin to strengthen through the week. There is a possibility of small craft conditions Tuesday night through the weekend as the flow continues to increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 63 35 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 62 33 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 64 39 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 33 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 43 67 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 63 34 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 34 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 45 69 60 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ342-343- 345-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-270-275.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ270-275.

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Corpus Christi
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Sun -- 04:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM CST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:42 PM CST     1.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM CST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:02 PM CST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:41 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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Corpus Christi, TX,