Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today-Tonight...A strong mid/upper level ridge over the plains drifts southeastward today, as a trough dips through the Northeast. Locally, ample moisture, with PWATs 2-2.15", and upper level perturbations will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. PoPs are forecast between 30-50%, highest south of Orlando. Coverage looks to begin after 2 PM, peaking in the late afternoon and early evening, before activity drifts offshore and drier conditions prevail overnight.
Prevailing SW flow around 10 mph will pin the east coast sea breeze, which may locally enhance any storms. The main threats today will be lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 55 mph, thanks to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates.
But, slow storm motions and deep moisture could lead to locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding in low- lying and poor drainage areas.

A Heat Advisory has been issued once again today for areas from Orange and northern Brevard Counties northward. Humid conditions and temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in this area are forecast to produce heat indices up to 109 degrees. A limiting factor will be an earlier start to convection than forecast. However, mid- level cloud cover looks to be lower than yesterday, favoring warmer conditions. Regardless, conditions will be hot and muggy across east central Florida. Be sure to practice heat safety today. Know the signs of heat stroke and take action, if needed.
Very warm conditions persist through tonight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday...The upper level ridge axis stretches eastward towards Florida Wednesday, as a surface front slowly sags through the Southeast. Slightly below normal PoPs are forecast under upper level convergence. However, deep moisture lingers over the peninsula, supporting scattered coverage in the afternoon and evening (30-40%). Dry air in the mid levels maintains DCAPE values near 1100 J/kg and the threat for a few strong wind gusts near 55 mph, in addition to lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.
SW flow increases as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and the Atlantic ridge axis south of the area. Winds increase to near 15 mph Wednesday afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph.
Likely the hottest day of the week, highs reach the lower to mid-90s once again. Additional Heat Advisories will be possible, as heat indices reach 105-110 degrees.

As showers and storms drift offshore in the evening, drier conditions develop Wednesday night. However, will see isolated to scattered activity drift southward into areas north of I-4 into early Thursday morning, as the front continues southward.
Overnight lows may not dip below 80 in some locations Wednesday night.

Thursday-Monday...Southwesterly flow prevails through most of the remainder of the forecast period, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains pinned the Straits of Florida. A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US Thursday, dragging a cold front into the Southeast, where is it forecast to stall in the vicinity of north Florida. Support near the front and PWATs in excess of 2" will lead to above normal coverage of showers and storms into the weekend. PoPs 50-70+% across the area will linger into Sunday, before high pressure builds aloft early next week.
Will need to monitor the threat for some locally heavy rainfall, with multiple rounds of training showers and storms possible. Most of the forecast area has been highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/4)
for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. Enough lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts Thursday, with peak gusts near 50 mph.

High coverage of clouds and precipitation will give east central Florida a break from the persistent higher heat indices. However, highs are still forecast to reach the lower 90s each afternoon into the weekend, creeping towards the mid-90s early next week. In addition, peak heat indices are still forecast to reach 100-105.
Breezy SW flow with gusts 20-25 mph Thursday will diminish into the weekend, as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly.

MARINE
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains south of the local area. SW flow will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon, pinning the east coast sea breeze. Near normal shower and thunderstorm coverage (30-50%)
is forecast, with activity developing over land, then moving offshore in the afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 ft.

Tonight-Thursday Night...A low pressure system moves offshore from the Northeast US through Thursday, tightening the pressure gradient locally. SW flow increases to 15-20 kts well offshore late tonight. Winds then around 15 kts by daybreak across the local waters reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night again well offshore, before returning to near 15 kts Thursday. Seas build to 2-4 ft, with up to 5 ft possible north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Lower than normal coverage of showers and storms will become above normal by Thursday. Lingering dry air aloft will support a few strong storms with wind gusts to near 45 kts, as well as lightning strikes.

Friday-The Weekend...Boating conditions improve into Friday and the weekend, as SW flow diminishes to 10-15 kts and seas return to 1-3 ft. However, high coverage of showers and thunderstorms persists through the weekend. Boaters should remain alert for offshore-moving storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and storms ongoing this afternoon, mainly around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Southwest winds around 10 KT, gusting to around 20 KT at times mainly along the coast, will shift south to south- southeast along the immediate coast as the sea breeze struggles to move inland this afternoon. Additional scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with the latest CAM guidance showing the highest coverage into this evening will be from MCO to TIX southward. VCTS remains mentioned at all sites but DAB after 18Z/19Z. Have added TEMPOs for MCO, ISM, TIX and MLB where the greatest coverage looks to be from 20-23Z for MVFR conditions. Have maintained PROB30s at VRB/FPR (20Z-23Z). Any lingering activity will diminish after 00Z with mostly dry conditions forecast. Southwest winds will become light overnight before increasing to 10 KT or less by mid morning on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 95 77 90 / 10 20 50 70 MCO 77 94 78 91 / 10 40 50 70 MLB 77 93 77 90 / 10 30 30 70 VRB 74 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 60 LEE 78 93 78 90 / 10 30 60 70 SFB 78 94 79 91 / 10 30 50 70 ORL 78 93 78 90 / 10 40 50 70 FPR 74 92 75 91 / 20 40 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141- 144-247-347-447.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041- 044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.