Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Pete Beach, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 122345 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 645 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Weak upper-level ridging is shifting farther east as a longwave trough axis digs into the Great Plains. While high pressure remains centered over S Georgia and the Florida peninsula, an area of low pressure is beginning to take shape in the northwesternmost section of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, mostly sunny skies continue across Florida as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s with a light northerly flow continuing to keep a continental airmass in place.
This is, however, eroding.

The longwave trough axis will push the ridge farther south as the surface high is pushed to the east. Over the next 24 hours, the sunny and mild weather will turn gloomy, breezy, and more humid.
This is in response to the approaching surface low and an accompanying warm front. Most of the upper-level energy will remain well to the north of the surface low in a weakly amplified pattern.
Thus there are no concerns for organized convection that is capable of producing severe weather at this time.

As the longwave trough lifts northward while propagating eastward, a trailing cold front arrives overnight tomorrow night, washing out in the process to the south of the peninsula. This suggests that weather not unlike today will return by the middle of the week, especially as another reinforcing frontal boundary is expected to move through Thursday. There are disagreements on the evolution of the upper-level pattern and subsequent impacts with Thursday's system, but with a cooler airmass generally looking to remain in place, the current forecast leans into this mostly passing with little fanfare, despite some guidance suggesting a more potent system.

Regardless, an amplified upper-level pattern remains during this time-frame with yet another front likely moving into the area over the weekend. As the weekend front approaches, there will be a brief period when ridging builds in and winds try to veer to more of a southerly direction to advect more warm, moist air back into the region. Thus, higher confidence in a window for storms is expected as this next system moves through over next weekend.
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