Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 1:19 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 811 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west late. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 811 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Southwest to west winds will continue over the waters tonight, with showers and maybe a few Thunderstorms lingering over the southern marine zones as a frontal boundary continues to sag south into the waters. Winds will shift to northwesterly by Thursday morning as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and Thunderstorms for the weekend.

FXUS62 KTBW 160001 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 801 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms filled in across the forecast area this morning, but the rain and cloud cover quickly cooled surface temperatures and limited the strength of convection during the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough has advanced a bit farther south a bit faster than expected, with the only remaining showers currently positioned over southwest Florida and the adjacent gulf waters. These showers will linger overnight and may lift back slightly north through Thursday morning as the front stalls across the Florida Peninsula.

Rain chances for the overnight period were shifted south to line up with what is being observed on radar. Mentions of patchy fog were also added in over the Nature Coast for Thursday night/Friday morning. No other changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are lingering over southwest Florida this evening around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, with MVFR ceilings filling in around the Tampa Bay near KTPA and KPIE. These showers are expected to largely clear out over the next few hours, but are expected to return to southwest Florida later tonight and Thursday morning as a front stalls across the Florida Peninsula.
Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings are forecast to expand after around 07-09z tonight across much of the area, lifting out by around 13-16z.

MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

South to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead of a frontal boundary, with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight.
Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next few days, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 89 75 91 / 20 10 0 10 FMY 78 91 76 93 / 40 40 0 10 GIF 73 93 70 95 / 20 10 0 10 SRQ 76 89 74 91 / 30 20 0 0 BKV 68 90 65 94 / 10 0 0 10 SPG 78 88 78 89 / 20 10 0 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Shell Point
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Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:40 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:01 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Port Manatee
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:37 PM EDT     0.01 knots Min Flood
Wed -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Manatee, Tampa Bay, Florida Current, knots

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