Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ruskin, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Through Saturday ridging to our north will continue with flow mainly from the east and PW hovering around 2. This flow regime favors late afternoon and evening showers and storms along the west coast as the east coast seabreeze pushes across the state.

As we look at Sunday through the middle part of next week Caribbean moisture will start to advect northward into our area.
Models have been extreme inconsistent with tropical development with NHC currently keeping the probability at 40 percent. However, what is becoming more clear is a heavy rainfall event that will happen through this period. Right now the highest totals are looking to be in Southwest Florida where we could see 5 to 6 inches of rain.

Tropical moisture will finally start to exist the area by Thursday as drier air starts to filter into the area.

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Ridging to our north will remain throughout the period with easterly winds. For Friday and Saturday winds will be around 5 to 10 knots with evening storms pushing off the west coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture is expected to come over the area starting on Sunday and sticking around through the middle part of the week. Models are still uncertain if we will see any tropical development during this period with NHC giving it a 40 percent chance of development. However, no matter what it will be a wet period with widespread showers and winds increasing out the east to around 15 to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the period with no fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 76 89 75 / 50 40 30 30 FMY 90 76 90 75 / 50 40 40 40 GIF 91 75 90 75 / 40 20 20 30 SRQ 91 76 90 75 / 40 50 30 40 BKV 90 74 89 73 / 40 30 20 20 SPG 89 78 90 78 / 40 40 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.