Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tierra Grande, TX

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Brief warm-up Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s

- Arctic cold front Saturday night into Sunday

- Medium to high (50-80%) chances of freezing temperatures across South Texas during the early mornings of Monday and Tuesday

- Low (20-30%) chances for freezing precipitation Tuesday morning along the Coastal Bend

Thursday and Thurday night, High pressure builds into the region and the precipitation moves out. Temperatures in the morning will start around the 40s, but as the high moves to the east, we get into the return flow and the 500 mb ridge slowly moves east, we warm into the lower to mid 60s. The flow aloft flattens and the temperatures Friday and Saturday get into the 70s. Friday night lows in the 40s.

The next cold front looks to sweep through Saturday afternoon, so that the region cools off Saturday night. Low temperatures cool to the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday morning. Now for the interesting part...Monday and Tuesday, more cold air continues to pour into the forecast area. High temperatures at this point are expected to fall to what our lows have been the last few days (40s maybe upper 30s).
The 40s are expected to go out in the Gulf. So the lows now become a little more important with Freezing (32°F) out to the islands, and most of the forecast area below 30° Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning looks a little colder, especially in the Brush Country, near Choke Canyon. The models are still a little untrustworthy as the previous two days for the morning runs of the NBM, the lows were in the upper 30s/lower 40s. This transition to lower temperatures has only been around within the last 6-12 hours.
So while I'm leaving the frigid temperatures in, I'm not sure if that is what will happen at this point.

Along the same vein, there is wintry (snow/FZRA) precipitation in grids as there is very light precipitation and below freezing conditions. Do I think it will be there? Uncertain. Since, I'm not confident in the temperatures verifying, I'm not confident that there will be freezing/frozen precipitation for early next week. If what is in the grids occurs, then we could have a trace of snow, with some freezing rain patches, however, it is a big question mark.
If the models and the NBM continue with this solution over the next day or so, then I'll jump on board. For now, I don't what to hype it, but will talk about it so it doesn't come as a complete surprise.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

LIFR to VFR conditions currently across South Texas due to lower CIGs /VSBYs. Some fog and a little heavier precipitation tonight will lead to more widespread IFR/LIFR conditions with lower VSBYs and low CIGs . Winds will remain light. Expect light rain to continue overnight and slowly taper off by Wednesday afternoon as VFR conditions return by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

A developing coastal low off the south tip of Texas tonight will help to increase the pressure gradient across the near and offshore waters through the night. Moderate to strong northeast flow will develop after 06Z tonight and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. The nearshore waters will be in effect through 06Z Thursday and the offshore waters will remain in effect until 00Z Friday. There is potential for strong enough winds across some of the bays as well, so this will have to be monitored for potential extension of the SCA to the bays as well. Moderate to high rain probabilities are expected through Wednesday night before conditions begin to slowly improve.

Thursday, expect moderate to strong northeast flow to diminish during the day, and become weak to moderate by the afternoon. Waves may take a few more hours to subside. Winds remain weak to moderate and veer to the southeast Thursday night. Winds will remain weak to moderate Friday. Winds will strengthen Saturday after the front moves through and winds become moderate to strong from the northeast, and remains so through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 49 56 44 63 / 60 70 10 10 Victoria 46 57 38 65 / 50 60 10 10 Laredo 48 55 46 65 / 60 40 10 0 Alice 46 55 42 64 / 70 70 10 10 Rockport 48 57 44 63 / 70 60 20 10 Cotulla 48 57 42 66 / 50 40 0 0 Kingsville 48 55 44 64 / 70 70 20 10 Navy Corpus 51 57 48 60 / 60 80 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Wednesday night for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275.