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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Tonight..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wednesday night..North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough.
Thursday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday night..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 608 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Gale conditions will persist behind the cold front over the gulf waters until late morning. Winds will subside to moderate to strong north through the afternoon with small craft advisory conditions. A weak offshore flow will occur tonight as high pressure settles into the region and become weak onshore on Monday as high pressure moves east. Expect a weak to moderate onshore flow Monday night will strengthen through the week Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a possibility of small craft advisory conditions Tuesday night through Thursday night as the flow continues to increase.

FXUS64 KCRP 101120 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 520 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Windy to breezy conditions will persist over the coastal region this morning as high pressure builds into the area. Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 6 AM for the islands and coastal region south of Corpus Christi Bay. Temperatures will be much cooler from yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

The surface high pressure ridge will be along the coast tonight with winds becoming light. With clear skies, radiational cooling should be ideal. NBM shows the probability of temperatures getting below freezing at 50-70 percent over McMullen and Live Oak Counties.
The only possible fly in the ointment will be with the ridge along the coast, the surface winds could become light south to southeast which is not ideal for the development of drainage winds.
Will show freezing temperatures possible in this region, but not sure if will occur for more than 2 hours. Will hold off on any headlines for possible freeze warning tonight. A Special Weather Statement will be issued to cover possible freezing temperatures across the northern portion of south Texas. Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Monday as onshore flow develops.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Rip currents and Coastal Flooding possible Mid-week - Showers and thunderstorms Tues night - Friday Night

Mid term (Monday night - Tuesday night)...Temperatures are definitely on a rebound as the lows Monday night are in the 40s-50s and high Tuesday are back into the mid 70s. PWAT values are low with values less then the Median of 0.89". However, the models are increasing the moisture overnight. Not sure that the chances should increase much Tuesday night, but will leave the NBM numbers for now.
P-ETSS levels are increasing with the northeast winds. Because of the onshore flow, we are seeing the NWPS wave periods increase as well. Through Tuesday night however, the levels at Aransas Pass are still below 1.0' it's in the longer term where we may have issues, more on that in a bit.

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday night)...PWAT values move up to around 1.5" Wednesday through Thursday, which is over the 90th percentile. The models have chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the Coastal Plains. Looking at the dynamics, there is a 500 mb trough that is pushing into the region with a sfc trough that is in the lee of the mountains in Mexico. This looks to drive the moisture increase as the moisture is pushed up the Rio Grande Plains, an into the 500 mb trough. As the trough moves into South Texas, would expect that showers and some thunderstorms would result. Thursday, a 500 mb cut off low drops into the trough, and the whole system moves into the Gulf on Saturday night. NBM has likely (55-60% chance) pops Thursday and Friday. The pops fall into the chance (30-40%) Friday and below 20% by Saturday morning. Dry on Saturday.

PETSS goes out Wednesday and Thursday with the chance for pushing over over 1.5 ft likely, but the wave periods on Wednesday are 8 sec (usually the threshold we need to get the tide to the dunes on the beach), 9 seconds on Thursday, and 10-11 seconds on Friday. working through our local worksheet, for each day we have a high risk for rip currents, and likely that we would get minor coastal flooding.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Gusty north winds will continue until around 16Z for the coastal plains, then decrease through the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable by early this evening as high pressure settles to along the coast. VFR through the period with clear skies.

MARINE
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Gale conditions will persist behind the cold front over the Gulf waters until late morning. Winds will subside to moderate to strong north with SCA conditions through the afternoon. SCA has been issued for today after Gale Warning expiration. A weak offshore flow will occur tonight as high pressure settles into the region and become weak onshore on Monday as high pressure moves east.

Monday night expect a weak to moderate northeast flow which looks to begin to strengthen through the week. There is a possibility of small craft conditions Tuesday night through the weekend as the flow continues to increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 63 35 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 62 33 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 64 39 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 33 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 43 67 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 63 34 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 34 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 45 69 60 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ342-343- 345-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-270-275.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ270-275.

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Nueces Bay
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Sun -- 03:26 AM CST     0.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:32 PM CST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:43 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:35 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nueces Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM CST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:02 PM CST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:41 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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